Wednesday, 30 May 2018

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 30/05/2018

Updated: 08:20

SGX-NF: 10540 (-78; -0.73%)

Expected BNF opening: 25970 (-200; -0.75%)

SPX-500: 2687 (-5; -0.18%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:


Resistance to NF:


Support for BNF:


Resistance to BNF:


Support for SPX-500:


Resistance to SPX-500:


Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10605 for a further rally to 10635/10675-10720/10750-10800/10875 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10585 NF may fall to 10535/10490-10450/10405-10375/10350 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26200 for a further rally to 26350/26550-26650/26825-26950/27050 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 26150-26050 BNF may fall to 25900/25700-25500/25350-25150/25000 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2725 for a further rally to 2745/2760-2775/2805 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2705 SPX-500 may fall to 2670/2650-2625/2610 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10618; Q3FY18 EPS: 403; Q3FY18 PE: 26.35; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 26255; Q3FY18 EPS: 807; Q3FY18 PE: 32.53; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2690; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 24.23

Note: Negative opening on terrible global cues amid ongoing Italian political saga and a fresh election, which is being seen as a referendum on EURO/EU and may also ultimately push the country for an “Italexit”. As the Italian 10Y bond yield soared above 3%, the market is concerned that the country may need an eventual bailout by ECB/IMF like in the case of Greece a few years back. Political risk in Spain is also increasing amid no-confidence vote there on Thursday/Friday and all these EU political jitters have affected the risk-on sentiment and prompted a flight to safety of bonds, Yen, CHF and Gold amid fears of a contagion effect.

The Indian market may rejoice some fall in oil and it’s still considerably high and the combination of higher oil, higher USD, higher bond yields may continue to prompt the FPIs to withdraw itself from the Indian as well as the EM market.

The ongoing tussle between Indian stock exchanges (NSE) and the SGX regarding the listing of Indian index and shares may also affect the country’s aspiration of a global player and MSCI may also take some action in its index rating for the Indian scrips. On the other side, timely/advance monsoon this year may also help the market sentiment to some extent. But mixed/muted earnings (EPS) so far in Q4FY18 may be also affecting the overall sentiment as valuations are quite expensive.






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