Time & Price action suggests that, technically BNF (LTP: 18806) has to sustain at least over 19050 for an immediate target of 19130* and only consecutive closing above that, it may scale 19265-19480-19833-20000-20935 area in the near future under bullish market scenario.
On the down side, sustaining below 19000, BNF may fall to 18774* immediately and consecutive closing below that it may further fall to 18619-18447-18220*-18040 in the next few trading sessions under bear case scenario. Sustaining below 18000, it may find some support around 17700-17500 and below that 17100 might be the lower target.
Thus, basically, broad range of BNF is now 17100-18000-18200-19150 and some triggers (either positive or negative) may be required to break this range in either directions.
Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)
| BNF-JULY | LTP | 18806 | ||||||
| SL=+/- | 25 POINTS | FROM SLR | ||||||
| T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 | SLR | |||
| Strong > | 19050 | 19130* | 19265 | 19323-480* | 19650-833 | 20000-935 | <19000 | |
| Weak < | 19000 | 18800-774* | 18692-619 | 18545-447 | 18312-220* | 18107-040 | >19050 |
For Greece, Tsipras may face some tough times to pass the Troika bail out package (deal) in their parliament today amid fierce protests through out the country and growing oppositions in his own party. Basically, Greece is now heading for a real possible civil unrest & humanitarian crisis and this is not a "drama". As par reports, IMF is now also in the back foot for this Greece deal as it considered Greece debt as" unsustainable & need deep upfront haircuts or the debt maturity must be extended by at least 30 years".
As for Iran nuclear deal, the news is already discounted by the market (Crude oil) in the past few months and actual flow of Iranian oil might touch the market in H2/2016. Obama has to pass this Iran deal through his congress, where it may face furious debate. Iran also has to face more stringent nuclear inspection in the coming days & its only after getting green signal from the nuclear inspectors, we could finally see flow of Iranian oil in the global market.
On the domestic front, its almost certain that RBI is not going to cut in Aug, but probably do that in Oct'15. As par reports, GST/Land bills may again face tough times in the forthcoming monsoon parliament sessions, we could see a joint session of parliament to pass these bills amid adamant oppositions & ruling NDA. Hopefully, Q1 earning sessions will not disappoint us much & we will be in a range till Oct.
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