Bank Nifty (July):A "NO" Vote Is Not A Foregone Conclusion For "Grexit"---Expected Broad Range 18900-17100 (Greece Or No Greece)

Technically, BNF (LTP:18750) has to sustain over 18900 for upper target of around 19130-19480. Only consecutive closing above 19480 area, BNF may target 20935 territory again in the near term under bullish market scenario (Further RBI rate cuts in dovish mode/passage of GST/Land bills in forthcoming parliament monsoon session/better than expected Q1 corporate earnings etc).

On the down side, failure to sustain over 18900 zone, BNF may correct immediately towards 18747-18508 area and sustaining below that it may further fall to 18304-18170-18020 territory. In the near term, only consecutive closing below 18020-17980 area, BNF may further fall to 17564-17236-17119 zone in the near future under bear case scenario.

Bottom Line:Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

BNF-JULY	LTP	18750
SD/SL=+/-	25 POINTS	FROM SLR
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	18900		19030	19130*	19240	19375	19480	<18850
Weak <	18850		18747-660	18508*	18390-304	18249-170	18095-020	>18900

Now, Greece has decisively opted for "NO" (61%) and rejected the bail out-austerity package proposal as campaigned by its ruling party there (Syrzia), the PM & FM has now more power and confidence to return to the negotiating table with more Greece friendly debt restructuring proposal. An emergency EU conference is also called on tomorrow.

Although theoretically, this "NO" vote will increase the chance of a "Grexit", we have to take in mind that" Real World" is not a "Text Book" and be sure that eventually Greece will not leave EURO (or rather than not be allowed to exit EU) simply for financial contagion & also for various other practical strategic & political factors (Greece being a NATO member). The whole Greece drama & game of chicken will continue to go on for ever or until a sustainable debt restructuring package is formulated for Greece with more hair cuts or even for some "forgive & forget" loan amounts from IMF/Troika.

This is really a "Catch22" situation for Greece & EU, one can not leave each other and has no options except formulating a more friendly debt restructuring package for Greece. But the "NO" vote signifies the increasing socioeconomic & political risk for a quick structural change effort in an ailing economy such as Greece & it may also cast a contagion type of effect in the other PIGS countries within the EU. The whole issue also strengthening the notion that concept of common currency such as EURO is a failed policy and may be only beneficial to a large & strong country such as Germany in this case (for their own export benefit because of relatively weak common currency EURO rather than their own strong Deutschmark).  

For the market, except more central bankers coordinated actions around the globe for an orderly market movement and to avert a possible financial contagion. The market may rally also later in the day or by next few days after a blip, because a ":Grexit" notion will ultimately strengthen EURO, if there is no further financial contagion in EU.

For our Nifty, except some more investor friendly tone from Govt in this hour of crisis & we will be basically in the broad range (8600-8180-7900) in the near future  with or without Greece.