Bank Nifty (July): Next Up Movement Only Above 19300-500, Or Else, We Could See Again 18500-040, Parliamentary Logjam May Drag

Technically, BNF (LTP: 19088) has immediate support of 19018-18839* & sustain below that, it may fall 18711-18545 and 18369-18254-18040-17800 zone in the near term under bear case scenario.

On the upside, BNF has to sustain over 19130-180 for an immediate target of 19250-19300* and only sustaining over that, it may scale 19480-505*. Consecutive closing only above 19505, it may target 19650-19965-20450-20720-20935 area under bullish market scenario.

In brief, sustaining above 19500, BNF might target 20720-20935 & failure of that it may be dragged to 18500-18000-17800-17500 zone again.

Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

BNF-JULY	LTP	19088
SL=+/-	25 POINTS	FROM SLR
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	19300		19405-480*	19505*-650	19833-965	20120-450	20600-720	<19250
Weak <	19250		19180-130*	19044-018	18941-839*	18750-711	18657-545	>19300

Parliament session will start from today and we may see various political drama and logjam in both the houses amid so much political controversy. Recent history shows that during parliament session, market under performed most of the times. Although, there is a great chance that GST will be passed this time at any cost, various dissent notes are also there (such as 1% mfg tax, keeping Alcohol,Tobacco & Petro Products out of ambit of GST and the proposed overall revenue neutral high rate @20% ??). As par reports, the abnormal high rate of GST may cast "service inflation" in our economy and there are many other flaws in it. Nevertheless, passage of GST bill is important this time & it will translate a change of sentiment by our investors towards India. There is ample liquidity in the global financial system right now, thanks to "24/7 printing machine" and its up to India to take it by making necessary reforms, so that FDI will pour in with confidence.

Land bill may not be passed this time & we may see indirect way to push it through states in the coming days. Also, land bill in present form may pose a political risk for NDA, ahead of state assembly elections.

Apart form Parliament, Q1 earnings, July monsoon trend & RBI tone will dictate the market in the near term.

Globally, as Greece drama subsidizes to some extent for the time being and China market is limping back to normal, all eyes is on Fed liftoff. As par latest survey, 80% economists see a Sep rate hike & Fed Fund Rate indicates a 40% probability of  that  right now. But there will be many caveats & eventually in reality, Fed may employ its continuous "wait & watch" policy till Dec'2015.