Nifty Fut (July): Greece Or No Greece--Broad Range Between 8600-7900 In Near Term ?

Time & Price action suggests that NF(LTP:8495; SGX NF:8495) has to sustain over 8495-8530 zone for an immediate target of 8565-8595 area. Only a consecutive closing above this zone (8565-8595), NF may enter a fresh upper range of 8600-8935-9200 territory in the near term under bullish market scenario.

On the flip side, unable to sustain over 8495 area, technically NF may target 8400 zone immediately and sustaining below that it may fall further to 8290-8180-8089-8000-7915 territory in the bear case scenario. Consecutive closing below 7915, NF may further crash up to 7500-7300 zone also.

Thus technically, the broad range of NF/NS is now 7900-8600 & any sustainable movement from this zone (break up or break down) may provide us 500-600 points of movement in either direction.

Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8495	0
				NF-JULY	LTP			8495
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8530		8565-8595*	8625-8675	8701-8755	8785-8805	8875-8935	<8510
Weak <	8510		8455-8401*	8350-8290	8245-8180	8136-8089	8035-8000	>8530
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8530		8595*	8675	8755	8875	8935-9200	<8510
Weak <	8510		8401*	8290	8180	8089	8000-7915	>8530

All eyes will be on latest Greece drama & referendum result today/tomorrow. There are two scenarios right now:

Yes Vote: (In favour of EU bailout terms & a deal with austerity)

This will be market friendly & may cause a initial gap up in risk trade including our Nifty, although may not sustain later/after Monday, because the same uncertainty element will be there regarding Greece again & again. Also, a new election may be needed before the talks with the creditors will resume again. As par reports, Greece FM may resign for a "yes" vote & Tsipras (PM) is also urging for a "No" vote in order to extract more in its favour from Troika.

No Vote:

This will cause a knee jerk reaction in the equity markets globally (risk off trade) including Nifty. But be sure that there will be supportive actions from central bankers (ECB/Fed) to contain any contagion from other PIGS countries (Portugal/Spain/Italy) apart from Greece also & to prevent any disorderly market movement (ECB may increase the limit of debt purchase/QE). Also, there is report that in the event of "NO" vote, EU may propose a third favorable bail out plan for Greece to avert a disaster. In any way, a "No" vote with an apparent indication/possibility of "Grexit" could also be viewed by the market as a great element of uncertainty in the form of current on going "Greece soap opera" has been removed from EU and this will strengthen EUR/risk trade in the longer term & thus the overall market damage will be quite limited.

Although, different opinion polls are predicting a neck & neck result between yes (44.1%) and no (43.7%) vote on an average, past records of such opinion polls in EU in such issues are not correct, because at the time of going into actual polls, citizens will not prefer to go into further uncertainty by opting "NO". In general, history shows that at the end of the day, people prefer stability and not anarchy (social & political unrest) and in the case of Greece, it will be the same also. Thus, a "YES" vote result will be the most likely scenario for tomorrow. 

But as far the market (Global & Nifty) is concerned, we were rallied/discounted the likely "YES" vote already by a great extent and although there may be some gap up in that scenario, it may be turned out as a classic example of "Buy the rumour & Sell the news" event later. For Greece, it will be start of another new chapter ("game of chicken") in the coming days and also there are various schedules of different debts repayments (1995 Japanese Samurai bond will mature for Y20 B/$100 M on 14-th July, which may be the first commercial private debt default by Greece & may ignite further series of such defaults, if not restructured again).

For our Nifty, sustain above 8600 may need some extra stimulus in the form of GST/Land bill / passage in the forthcoming parliament session/joint session & RBI rate/CRR/SLR cut in next few quarters (dovish RBI) along with improved Q1/Q2 numbers from corporate earnings and consistent investor friendly policies of our Govt and any failure of that, we may head for 7500-7300 in stead of  9200-9700 as we are now in "market reality check" instead of "hope rally".