Nifty Fut (July): Greece Drama Isn't Over Yet--Broad Trading Range 8600-8200-7900 May Be Continued Unless We See Some Real Domestic Triggers

Looking at the chart, NF (LTP:8482; SGX NF:8495) has to sustain over 8515 for an immediate target of  8565*. Only consecutive closing over 8565, it may target 8625-8682-8760* zone and sustaining over 8760, NF may scale 8875-9000 area in the near term under bullish market conditions.

On the flip side, sustaining below 8495-8473 area, NF may fall towards 8430*-8350 zone immediately and below that came 8278-8225*. Only consecutive closing below 8225, NF may further fall to 8136-7931 in the next few trading sessions under bear case scenario.

Thus in short, NF may continue trade in the broad range of 8600-8200-7900 irrespective of Greece drama & China woes unless we see some domestic triggers or lagers and a break out or break down of this range (8600-7900) may ignite further 500 points movement in either direction.

Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8495	13
				NF-JULY	LTP			8482
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8515		8550-8565*	8600-8625	8660-8682	8712-8760*	8818-8875	<8495
Weak <	8495		8473-8430*	8400-8350	8330-8278	8240-8225*	8179-8136	>8515
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8515		8565*	8625	8682	8760*	8875-9000	<8495
Weak <	8495		8430*	8350	8278	8225*	8136-7931	>8515

Yesterday's hurriedly announced Greece deal is not the end of this drama, rather than it might start another series of this mega serials. The deal has to be approved in the parliaments of Greece & other concerned creditors (such as Germany). There will be many political ramifications for this and other PIGS countries may follow. But one thing is clear that there will be no Grexit & the the present saga will continue to go on for next few years unless we see some actual debt write off for Greece.

As for our Nifty, for sustaining above 8600, we need to see some real earnings upgradation for Q1, passage of key reform bills (GST/Land Bill) in the forthcoming monsoon session along with dovish RBI.

CPI figure published yesterday evening may be a little dampener for rate cut hopes in Aug RBI meet. In any way, RBI might look at Oct festival session & give us a "Dewali" gift in the form of another rate cut and other type of banking liquidity stimulus ( in the form of CRR/SLR/MSF cut), if it feels that Fed is not going to hike in Dec'2015 (dovish Fed).

Although, a Greece deal & stable China market is indicating for a possible Fed lift off in Sep or Dec, in reality FOMC might choose to be in the side line, because the USD is already quite strong & in a range, thanks to their continuous verbal intervention rather than any real action. A strong currency is almost equivalent to a certain percentage of rate hike itself & that is the case with Fed.