Market Mantra: Indian & Global Market Update

 For NF, 7425-7325 & for SPF, 1875-1850 zone may be the bottom for the time being

SGX NF: 7460 (CMP)

NSE NF: 7572 (LTP)

As par early SGX indication, NSE NF may open around 7460 after US market cracked by over 2% overnight. 

After yesterday's "soothing & above expected" China trade data, global market (US/EU) showed some sign of stabilization/dead cat bounce initially, but after US traders jumps in, the market got a thought of "highly manipulated" China trade data probably managed/messaged by the authorities to calm down the market as the trade data is actually (-)4.9% YOY EX Hong Kong. Along this with continuing Oil woes, global market tanked.

For NF, technically, 7425-7400 zone is now strong support and below that came 7325. As par EW cycle, for NF, 7425-7325 may be the low for the time being. Consecutive closing below 7325, for any reason, NF may further goes down towards 7240-6900 area in the near term.

On the other hand, NF need to settle consecutively above 7560 (for NS its 7540) for an immediate target of  7605-7650. In the near term, NF need to sustain above 7650-7675 area for any change in trend and in that scenario, it may rally up to 7715-7785 in the next cycle under normal scenario. 

For NF, any further movement above 8000-8200, we may need some structural improvement in both global (China jitters & Oil woes) and domestic issues. 

Hope of dream/good budget and GST in forthcoming budget session of Parliament may give some support to our market, but tepid earnings might be a great concern. Also, with the forthcoming state elections and fiscal constraints, scope of "dream" budget may be limited and Govt may indulge in some sort of popularism/social welfare spending. Thus, 8000-8200 zone may be tough for the NF to conquer in 2016 which was the base for large part of 2015. The new base for 2016 may be 7400-7300 & 6900. If China & Oil deteriorates further and there is not any significant structural improvement or reforms (for India), 6300 for NF can't be ruled out too, from where this "hope rally" actually started.

For, S&P Fut (CMP:1884), trend change only happens sustaining above 1920-1965 zone and in that scenario, 1992-2030-2045-2075 may be the target. 

On the downside, consecutive closing below 1920, it may fall up to 1875 (already achieved) & 1860-1850 and below that 1825-1805 may be the target in the near term. 

For BNF (CMP: 15854), immediate support is around 15500 & below that 15390 may be the bottom for the time being. Sustain below 15390 for any reason, target may be up to 15175-15000 & 14600 area in the near term.

For any trend change, BNF need to close consecutively above 15780-15915 zone for an near term target of 16050-16125-16255-16350 in the short term.

Analytical Charts: