USD/JPY: Time To Buy ?

CMP: 116.55

Buy either above 116.75 or in dips around 116-115:

TGT: 118-121-124-126 (1-3M)

TSL<114

Note: Consecutive closing below 114 for any reason, technically USD/JPY may fall up to 110-107 in the near term (although its unthinkable right now as BOJ will not let it fall so much).

Its all started on last Friday, when Kuroda somewhat sounded like a dovish and commented surprisingly that  further QQE may be damaging for Japanese economy. Consequently JPY soared and the follow up China/oil woes and severe equity market out flows firmed up JPY further as smart money took the cover of safety of JPY.

But in reality, BOJ will not let the JPY so strong as it will further undermine their years long QQE effort and a relatively stronger Yen could hurt Japan's export edge, which will further push the country towards recession and stagflation/deflation.

It seems that now BOJ is coming out of "sleep" and they are "watching" FX market quite closely.

Be it verbal intervention or real one, USD/JPY bounced back along with "risk" trade.

Technically, sustain below 118, exaggerated the selling of USD/JPY and the pair fall below 116. 

Now looking at the chart, 116-114 is a strong support zone and if it does not close below 114, then expect bounce back to wards 118-121 and sustaining above that it may gradually move around 124 zone around March'16.

Again, the current global turmoil in financial world including China/Oil woes, Fed may not prefer to hike again in March'16, which may push USDJPY towards another key resistance level of 126 by March'16 on the back of "risk on" trade.

Analytical Charts: