TCS: Sustain Below 2295, May Fall Up To 2000-1825

Q3FY16 result lags estimates in CC (USD) terms

Impacted by seasonality & Chennai floods !!

CMP: 2327

Sell either sustain below 2295 or on rise around 2365-2385;

TGT: 2295-2200-2073-2000 (1-3M)

TSL>2410

Warning Note: Consecutive closing above 2410 for any reason, whatsoever, TCS may rally up to 2467-2495 & 2525-2546 and 2750-2840 in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).

For TCS, Q3FY16 EPS at 30.88 against consensus of 30.79 (QOQ-30.88; YOY-27.20)

TCS lags CC USD revenue growth as it clocked only 0.5% on QOQ basis against analyst's expectations of 2%.

Although, TCS has already issued profit warning for Q3 after Chennai floods and the scrip already corrected to some extent, technically, 2295 is a strong support area and consecutive closing below that, it may further fall towards 2200-2000 zone in the near term. In the alternative scenario, TCS need to close consecutively above 2385-2410 area for any up movement up to 2467-2546 area in the short to medium term.

As par BG metrics & current market parameters, median valuation of TCS:

(Based on consolidated TTM & FWD EPS)

Present valuation may be near: 2425 (FY-16/TTM)

Projected fair valuation might be around:2550-2750 (FY:17-18/FWD)

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	Low	High	Median	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
TCS	120.25	256.98	20	2447.67	2392.95	2420.31	2491.1	2380.97

TCS

120.85

309.1

20

2453.77

2398.92

2426.34

2491.1

2380.97

TCS

133.95

369.25

20

2583.34

2525.59

2554.47

2491.1

2380.97

TCS

154.25

441.25

20

2772.19

2710.22

2741.21

2491.1

2380.97

Analytical Charts: