For NF, 7560-7540 & for BNF, 16050-15780 may offer
good support for the time being---
SGX NF: 7560 (CMP)
NSE NF: 7574 (LTP)
As par early morning indication NSE NF may open around 7560-7600 after China said that it will scrap the present mechanism of "circuit breaker" and there will be no "circuit breaker" from today.
But there was another market buzz that PBOC is under great pressure from Chinese Govt to devalue Yuan by another 5% as quickly as possible (before Feb'16, China "Golden Week") to shore up its exports.
As par some analysts, Yuan may reach 6.95-7.50 by 2016-17 and that's may be another headwinds for the global as well as Indian markets.
Today's NFP data in US will be very important and anything above 200k may strengthen the USD, prompting the PBOC for more action. Although, as par Fed official dot-plots, there may be four hikes in 2016, FFR is indicating three hikes and the first by June'2016 instead of earlier March'2016 because of weak ISM data and ongoing China turmoil.
Now-a-days, as the market is under control of Central Bankers since 2008 global crisis, anything can happen ranging from dovish tone of Fed (i.e rate will be flat for longer !!) more ECB & BOJ QQE and even imminent PBOC cut (interest & RRR) over the next few days/weekend.
But now, its a different ball game as Chinese stimulus may be interpreted as a panic move instead of good news. As China is not so opaque, no one has any real idea about what's happening there and why PBOC is panicking so much !!.
On the other hand, if PBOC does not announce any rate cut and instead indicate a massive Yuan devaluation (5-15% by 2016-17), then it may be huge negative for the global market.
Bottom line, China again showed that, when it sneezes, the whole world gets not only cold, but something bigger than that !!.
Apart from Fed uncertainty about future path of rate hikes, China, Oil, Brexit are some of the serious headwinds for global market in 2016.
Back to our domestic front, although Govt is again wooing Cong for GST passage, it appears that the later is in no "mood" to oblige for that immediately. As par Cong, they did not get any written communications from the Govt regarding their 3-points objection over GST. Its also very paradoxical that just few days ago, our FM called for sure shot passage of GST without Cong support by March budget session as Cong's strength will diminish in RS.
But despite all permutations & combinations, its not possible for BJP to gain required RS majority even by 2017-19. So, Govt has to fast track its political management and back door talks with the Cong and other important political opposition parties, But, given the 2016-17 big state election schedules (WB/UP), it may not be so easy.
Technically,
for NF, 7560-7540-7520 is a big support zone and consecutive closing
below that for any reason, NF may further dips towards 7450-7330*-7240
& 7135-7092-7000 area in the short to mid term (bear case scenario)
On
the other hand, sustaining over 7560-7620, NF may rally towards
7680-7727-7770 & 7811-7853-7890 in the near term (bullish case
scenario)
Similarly for BNF, 16050-15985 is important support zone and sustain below that 15915-15780*-15552 & 15390-15325-15175 may be the lower targets.
Analytical Charts:
No comments:
Post a Comment