Nifty Fut(Jan): Has To Sustain Abv 7510-7560 for Further Rally----

For NF, only sustaining above 7510-7560, expect 7685-7750;

Otherwise 7190-7100 zone may be on the card again

All eyes will be on the BOJ/Fed later this week 

After ECB hints more QQE at March; 

But below $34-33, Oil (WTI) may continues to be a big laggards

SGX NF: 7454 (CMP)

NSE-NF: 7436 (LTP)

Trading Levels: NSE-NF (Jan)

 

	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
For	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T5	SLR
Strong >	7480		7510-560*	7591-620	7644-685*	7710-750	<7460
Weak <	7460		7430-385*	7350-325	7300-240	7215-190	>7460
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T5	SLR
Strong >	7480		7560*	7620	7685*	7750-880	<7460
Weak <	7460		7385*	7325	7240*	7190-100	>7480

After hitting 7200 zone last week, NF found some support and rallied quite smartly for around 250 points along with supportive global market, after ECB & BOJ hinted about more QQE to support the real economy (financial market).

Looking ahead, all eyes will be BOJ & Fed meetings later this week (27-29-th Jan) to see how the major central bankers will react after global market meltdown since the beginning of the Year-2016. 

Market is expecting for the BOJ to roll out more QQE this time, after tepid inflation & wage growth outlook in Japan. Also recent strength of the JPY may be a matter of concern for BOJ as they want the USDJPY range between 120-125 in the foreseeable future. 

On the other hand, some analysts are also expecting the BOJ to be hold this week, keeping a close eye on FX markets & developments in China with a possible hint of further easing in March-April'16.

In that scenario, we may see some knee-jerk reaction for the "risk trade".

Fed is also expected to be on the dovish side later this week and may hint that possibility of March hike is virtually nil. Though as par Fed dot-plots, there may be four hikes in 2016, but given the epic meltdown of global financial market & specially Oil, in practical sense, there may be only four hikes in the next four years !!

Thus basically, ECB & BOJ may continue to wait till March'16 to see the real Fed action and if Fed are in dovish side with hold, they may choose to come forward with their "bazookas" instead of "water pistols" in order to keep the present divergence of monetary policy intact. 

Having said that, the biggest concern for the market may be Oil now and China is acting just as a catalyst. Epic fall in Oil prices is causing various SWF (for Oil rich countries) to withdraw funds from global equity & bond markets to finance budget of their economies and this may be the primary reason for present market turmoil, apart from China Yuan devaluation & slowdown.

Oil has some fundamental reasons for this epic fall and unless & until it will be structurally corrected, it may be very tough to fight this Oil debacle by monetary policy alone as significant amount of investments and oil related junk bonds are involved here.

India, as a financial market is also not insulated from this global turmoil and even some good Q3 results & budget/GST hopes may not change the present "gloom & doom" sentiment of the market in a significant way.

Technically, NF may be in the 1-st Wave of daily EW cycle after finding the bottom around targeted 7205 level in the last leg of C-Wave. The target of this 1-st Wave in new EW cycle may be around 7410 (already achieved) and 7520-7610 zone. Thus failure to sustain above the 7510-7560 zone, NF may drift again towards 7325-7200 zone in the next corrective 2-nd Wave.

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