Market
Mantra: 01/03/2017 (08:30)
Watch 8975-8875 & 8995-9075 Zone In
Nifty Fut (March), Which May Open Around 8920 Today
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around
8920 (+7 points), almost flat following mixed Global cues. Due to unusual
ongoing hawkish script by various Fed speakers, FFR is now showing around 50%
probability of a March rate hike against 35% last week and USD is also gaining
some strength. As a result Japan is trading higher. Also, China PMI data
flashed today was upbeat & better than expected; as a result China is also
trading in positive.
At a glance, Trump’s “Phenomenal speech” just concluded has
nothing new, which market does not know and USD bond yields & global market
seems to be not convinced about lack of any specific details. But Trump also
called for a $1 tln infrastructure fund approval from US congress in PPP mode
and that somehow supporting the market sentiment right now.
Pharma may be under stress today as Trump again called for price
rationalization; but also pointed out about too much regulation from FDA, which
is a bar for innovation & affordability for pharmaceuticals in US.
After yesterday’s confusing GDP, domestic market may look into
the Mfg PMI & Auto sales (Feb) today (estimate: 50.3; prior: 50.4). Better
than expected PMI may also help the market after yesterdays’ upbeat Q3 GDP despite
DeMo blues. Although, GDP is indicating huge jump in mfg activities, it may be
due to inventory addition with the distributor/retail level. Also significant
gap in GVA (6.6%) and GDP (7%) may be an indication of huge amount of pre-paid
taxes with demonetized currency (??). Tepid FMCG, auto (especially 2W),
Consumer durables sales may also be in disconnect with the Q3 GDP figure of 7%,
which basically failed to capture the true direction of the informal economy or
unorganized sector. The true figure may be available only in Jan’18; but as par
some analysts, Q4 GDP may come sharply below expectation at 7.1% after revision
and more informal data.
Hints for actionable
trading idea:
Technically, Nifty Fut (March @8920) has
to sustain over 8995 area for further rally towards 9035-9075 & 9125-9195
in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
8975 zone, NF may fall towards 8910-8875* & 8815-8765 area in the near term
(under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20695) has to
sustain over 20950 area for further rally towards 21050-21150 & 21350-21500
area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
20900-20750 area, BNF may fall towards 20600*-20500 & 20250-20000 zone in
the near term (under bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
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