10/04/2017 (20:00)
Trading Idea: KMB
LTP:
877
Sell
on rise around: 895-910
TGT:
845-830 & 790-770 and 720-690 (1-3 & 6M)
TSL>
915 OR > 925
Note: Consecutive closing
above 925 area, KMB may further rally towards 945-975 & 1000-1015 &
1045-1080 in the near to long term (FY: 18-19). Anyone having long position in
the stock may also watch the 845-830 zone as positional support.
As
the valuation multiple is currently quite stretched at around PE of 35 (Q3FY17
TTM) in comparison to its average PE multiple of 25, investors may wait for
some dips before fresh buying.
Investment Idea: KMB
LTP:
873
Buy/accumulate
on dips around: 770-720
TGT:
905-975 & 1015-1045 and 1080 (12-24M/FY: 18-19)
Valuation metrics for KMB (Cons):
ACTUAL
Q3FY17 EPS
|
6.88
|
ACTUAL
TTM Q3FY17 EPS
|
24.96
|
PROJECTED
Q4FY17 EPS
|
7.56
|
PROJCTED
FY-17 EPS
|
26.78
|
PROJECTED
Q1FY18 EPS
|
8.3
|
PROJECTED
TTM Q1FY18 EPS
|
29.28
|
PROJECTED
FY-18 EPS
|
30.3
|
Average/median
PE: 25
Average
CAGR in EBITDA: 21%
Projected
CAGR in EBITDA (FY: 18-19): 33%
Average
CAGR in EPS: 25% (Adjusted EQ dilution for ING merger)
Projected
CAGR in EPS: 23% (without factoring for latest 3.3% EQ dilution and probable
further fund raising/EQ dilution)
As
par current & implied run rate & average PE of 25, median fair
valuation of KMB may be:
Actual
Q3FY17 TTM: 625
Projected
FY-17: 670
Projected
FY-18: 760
Valuation
Metrics
|
Q3FY17
|
FY-17E
|
Q1FY18E
|
FY-18E
|
TTM
EPS
|
24.96
|
26.78
|
29.28
|
30.3
|
MEDIAN
PE
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
MEDIAN
FAIR VALUE
|
624.00
|
669.50
|
732.00
|
757.50
|
If
KMB can deliver an actual CAGR of 30-35% in EPS in FY: 17-19 consistently, then
market may assign it 30 PE for the long term average, depending upon the
management guidance & any big inorganic expansion, such as Axis Bank or KTK
as par recent market buzz and in that scenario, projected FY: 18-19 median
valuation may be around 910-1060 (EPS: 30.30 * 30/35); although such big
inorganic expansion may be usually not good for KMB scrip, at least for the
short term (depending upon the actual M&A details, if happens at all).
Analysts estimates for EPS of KMB:
ANALYST
PROJECTION (EPS)
|
FY-17
|
FY18
|
MOSL
|
26.3
|
32.3
|
FT/REUTERS
|
22.3
|
28.13
|
MEDIAN
EPS(CONSENSUS)
|
24.30
|
30.22
|
MEDIAN
PE
|
25
|
25
|
MEDIAN
VALUE (CONSENSUS)
|
607.50
|
755.38
|
KMB
Financials: QLY
KOTAK
BANK-CONS-Q3FY17
|
Dec
'16
|
Sep
'16
|
Jun
'16
|
Mar
'16
|
Dec
'15
|
YOY
|
QOQ
|
AVG
|
AVGR
|
SGR
|
PROJ(%)
|
Q4FY17
|
Q1FY18
|
Interest
Earned
|
|||||||||||||
(a)
Int. /Disc. on Adv/Bills
|
4,228.47
|
4,140.18
|
4,056.95
|
3,978.38
|
3,917.17
|
7.95
|
2.13
|
4023.17
|
5.10
|
1.92
|
2.79
|
4346.30
|
4467.42
|
(b)
Income on Investment
|
1,239.36
|
1,232.44
|
1,220.99
|
1,178.10
|
1,090.08
|
13.69
|
0.56
|
1180.40
|
4.99
|
3.15
|
3.03
|
1276.95
|
1315.68
|
(c)
Int. on balances With RBI
|
62.68
|
29.52
|
34.5
|
55.68
|
25.51
|
145.71
|
112.33
|
36.30
|
72.66
|
28.51
|
62.48
|
101.84
|
165.48
|
(d)
Others
|
135.56
|
131.51
|
157.29
|
105.3
|
112.97
|
20.00
|
3.08
|
126.77
|
6.94
|
7.19
|
5.55
|
143.09
|
151.03
|
INTEREST
INCOME
|
5,666.07
|
5,533.65
|
5,469.73
|
5,317.46
|
5,145.73
|
10.11
|
2.39
|
5366.64
|
5.58
|
2.41
|
3.23
|
5849.00
|
6037.84
|
Other
Income
|
2,003.97
|
2,881.30
|
2,397.15
|
2,592.95
|
1,804.68
|
11.04
|
-30.45
|
2419.02
|
-17.16
|
3.15
|
-10.42
|
1795.07
|
1607.95
|
TOTAL
REVENUE
|
7,670.04
|
8,414.95
|
7,866.88
|
7,910.41
|
6,950.41
|
10.35
|
-8.85
|
7785.66
|
-1.49
|
2.43
|
-1.33
|
7567.96
|
7467.23
|
EXPENDITURE
|
|||||||||||||
Interest
Expended
|
2,919.02
|
2,869.44
|
2,904.00
|
2,850.52
|
2,775.74
|
5.16
|
1.73
|
2849.93
|
2.42
|
1.26
|
1.68
|
2967.93
|
3017.66
|
Employees
Cost
|
993.61
|
1,013.77
|
951.46
|
926.68
|
874.62
|
13.60
|
-1.99
|
941.63
|
5.52
|
3.21
|
2.54
|
1018.81
|
1044.65
|
Other
Expenses
|
1,678.20
|
2,533.62
|
2,173.56
|
2,422.15
|
1,622.77
|
3.42
|
-33.76
|
2188.03
|
-23.30
|
1.39
|
-13.71
|
1448.19
|
1249.70
|
OPEX
|
5,590.83
|
6,416.83
|
6,029.02
|
6,199.35
|
5,273.13
|
6.02
|
-12.87
|
5979.58
|
-6.50
|
1.44
|
-4.11
|
5361.20
|
5141.00
|
EBITDA
|
2,079.21
|
1,998.12
|
1,837.86
|
1,711.06
|
1,677.28
|
23.96
|
4.06
|
1806.08
|
15.12
|
5.54
|
7.68
|
2238.86
|
2410.76
|
Depreciation
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
EBITA
|
2,079.21
|
1,998.12
|
1,837.86
|
1,711.06
|
1,677.28
|
23.96
|
4.06
|
1806.08
|
15.12
|
5.54
|
7.68
|
2238.86
|
2410.76
|
Provisions
And Contingencies
|
217.81
|
217.93
|
213.57
|
211.98
|
261.02
|
-16.55
|
-0.06
|
226.13
|
-3.68
|
-5.10
|
-3.24
|
210.75
|
203.91
|
Exceptional
Items
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
PBT
|
1,861.40
|
1,780.19
|
1,624.29
|
1,499.08
|
1,416.26
|
31.43
|
4.56
|
1579.96
|
17.81
|
7.01
|
9.31
|
2034.71
|
2224.15
|
Tax
|
611.46
|
585.23
|
541.49
|
442.49
|
477.95
|
27.93
|
4.48
|
511.79
|
19.47
|
6.73
|
9.42
|
669.04
|
732.05
|
PAT
|
1,249.94
|
1,194.96
|
1,082.80
|
1,056.59
|
938.31
|
33.21
|
4.60
|
1068.17
|
17.02
|
7.16
|
9.27
|
1365.81
|
1492.42
|
Minority
Interest
|
-17.62
|
-16.31
|
-18.56
|
-19.93
|
-15.49
|
13.75
|
8.03
|
-17.57
|
0.27
|
2.83
|
3.64
|
-18.26
|
-18.93
|
Share
Of P/L Of Associates
|
34.27
|
23.75
|
2.86
|
18.57
|
22.34
|
53.40
|
44.29
|
16.88
|
103.02
|
167.45
|
82.03
|
62.38
|
113.55
|
Net
P/L After M.I & Associates
|
1,266.59
|
1,202.40
|
1,067.10
|
1,055.23
|
945.16
|
34.01
|
5.34
|
1067.47
|
18.65
|
7.39
|
9.97
|
1392.89
|
1531.79
|
Equity
Share Capital
|
919.63
|
918.64
|
917.79
|
917.19
|
916.25
|
0.37
|
0.11
|
917.47
|
0.24
|
0.09
|
0.13
|
920.84
|
922.06
|
EPS
|
6.89
|
6.54
|
5.81
|
5.75
|
5.16
|
33.52
|
5.23
|
5.82
|
18.38
|
7.30
|
9.82
|
7.56
|
8.31
|
EPS
After Extra Ordinary
|
|||||||||||||
Basic
EPS
|
6.89
|
6.55
|
5.82
|
5.76
|
5.16
|
33.53
|
5.19
|
5.82
|
18.33
|
7.30
|
9.80
|
7.57
|
8.31
|
Diluted
EPS
|
6.88
|
6.54
|
5.8
|
5.74
|
5.15
|
33.59
|
5.20
|
5.81
|
18.47
|
7.32
|
9.85
|
7.56
|
8.30
|
TTM
EPS
|
24.96
|
23.23
|
26.78
|
29.28
|
|||||||||
AVERAGE
PE
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
|||||||||
MEDIAN
VALUATION
|
624.00
|
580.75
|
669.44
|
731.97
|
|||||||||
BVPS
|
201.4
|
194.3
|
187.6
|
181.9
|
176.5
|
14.11
|
3.65
|
185.08
|
8.82
|
3.33
|
4.83
|
211.13
|
221.34
|
AVG
P/B
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
||||||
MEDIAN
VALUATION
|
654.55
|
631.48
|
609.70
|
591.18
|
573.63
|
686.19
|
719.35
|
KMB
was in the limelight recently after speculation of various M&A targets and
expression of “animal spirit” by the management for more growth (organic or
inorganic) & private investments not only for itself, but for all the
eligible corporates (quality investors). Apparently, after huge win of BJP in
the recent state elections (UP), the KMB management seemed to regain its
confidence & faith on the Indian economy and the incremental reform process
(Modinomics) as with other big angel investors and called for “animal spirit”
by the Indian corporates/investors and also called for some “signal” by the
Govt to kick start the economy, revival of private investments and ability to
take some risks by the private investors.
But
FM, on his part was apparently cool and maintained that, Govt has already
giving “various signals” over the years and investors need to understand that;
perhaps the Govt is taking a cautious stance keeping in mind some greed of
corporate Indian in the boom period of pre-2008 (pre-recession) & 2010-12,
when some of the corporates want to grow fast by irrational exuberance of huge
expansion or unrelated diversification by taking huge debt; thus causing the
problem of “twin balance sheet” as now. But, of course Kotak group (KMB) is an
exception like few others corporate groups with very deep pocket, good debt
profile, excellent professional management and a business model with consistent
earnings visibility.
For
such display of “animal spirit” & KMB’s recent fund raising plan of Rs.5300
cr, market was abuzz with various probable M&A speculations ranging from
Axis Bank, KTK Bank, Bharat Fin, M&A Fin etc (the list was long !!). But,
eventually nothing was happened; KMB has apparently raising further EQ capital
and thereby diluting it by around 3.3% to reduce the promoter shareholding
gradually as par RBI directive and to also fund its ARC subsidiary.
Although,
KMB is clearly interested for Axis Bank due to variety of reasons, such as
operational synergy, dilution of promoter holdings in the merged entity &
corporate loan book. Govt may be also eager to sell/dilute its SUUTI stake
(11.7%) in Axis Bank in FY-18 to meet its disinvestment target and KMB may be
waiting for that opportunity. Axis Bank may be on the dock (sale list), because
of failure of the present management to contain its stressed assets and also
for various ongoing cases against some of its employees at different branches
involving DeMo related currency notes exchange/conversion allegations under
PMLA; Govt may also ensure a management change in the Axis Bank.
As
par KMB management, going forward, like in telecom industry, there may be only
five big banks for India (SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Axis/Merged entity and
IIB/Yes/Kotak) and KMB may be one of them. KMB might be right as India is not a
place of so many banks, now around 30 (?) and a wave of consolidation may be
coming in the months/quarters ahead, in which entities with a very deep pocket
may only survive like in telecoms.
Apart
from the above mentioned 6 private banks & SBI, most of the other PSBS may
also be merged into BOB & PNB. Thus, Indian banking system may be
consolidated into 5-6 major private banks & 3-4 major PSBS group. KMB may
be preparing itself for a big banking role and may be also eyeing the corporate
loan books growth as the traditional corporate lenders (PSBS) and also its
private peers (ICICI/Axis) are now stressed itself and may not be in a position
to resume corporate lending in a big way, when such demand again came back.
Such stressed banks need to raise sufficient capitals and also need to resolute
their NPA issues properly.
Thus
KMB has raising capital for pursuing such consolidation (M&A) opportunities
(inorganic growth), role as a big ARC or even participation of a Govt
sponsored/PPP mode “bad bank” to acquire & resolute stressed assets/NPA,
organic growth opportunities and digital banking expansion (like recently
launched “811” –digital mode of opening an instant limited or no frill bank A/C
with only limited KYC-Pan/UID at lower costs).
KMB
has also strengthen its ARC ARM by infusing further capital of around Rs.1200
cr and it may play a big role of a “Super ARC”, which may be now only suitable
for players having very deep pocket and can withstand the gestation period to
revitalize or resolute a stressed assets.
The
major problem of huge stressed assets in the Indian Banking system may be now
largely confined between 40-50 stressed corporate groups, mainly in infra
sectors. Apart from some project delays or business viability, past policy
paralysis, one of the main reasons may be India’s legacy issues of high real
interest rate (lending rate). Govt/RBI may focus on those large 40-50 stressed
accounts first and may deal with case to case basis, considering specific
nature of NPA and try for an effective resolution; but it may also take
significant time as simple management change may not be the only solution;
there may be questions of project/business viability and other structural
issues.
KMB
need to expand & diversify at animal spirit now as its core lending
business (loan growth/interest income) may have been slowed quite significantly
over the last few quarters and NII is growing around 2.43% on QOQ basis. The
bank is focusing more on CV & corporate loans like other 2nd
generations private banks (IIB/Yes bank); incremental corporate loans may be
limited only to the top rated large corporate groups having little probability
of default. KMB’s LAP/HL/Mortgage/unsecured PL/business banking portfolios may
not be doing well; but secured PL/CC business is robust.
As
with other 2nd generations private banks, asset quality of KMB is
quite stable in comparison to other old peers (ICICI/Axis) as the bank is quite
cautious and did not lend irresponsibly to stressed borrowers in boom time
(2010-12). But going forward, due to need for fast expansion & credit
growth, quality of lending may also suffer for these banks (KMB/IIB/Yes),
especially when they are entering next phase of growth amid intense competition
among the peers. If there is no significant economic revival in India, no big
solution to India’s huge unemployment or underemployment problem and growing
protectionism from US & other EU countries, like UK, Germany & H1B Visa
issues, there may be significant stress with the retail assets too at some
point of time and these private banks, which are so far insulated from corporate
stressed assets for their greater exposure in retail assets may also be in some
kind of problem.
As of
now around 60% of loan books of KMB (on standalone basis) is of corporate loans
& 40% is of retail loans (SMES/business loans/PL/HL/LAP/CV/Agri); out
retail loans, agri loan constitutes around 13% (Rs.16519 cr) which may also
face some stress following farm loan waivers in UP, which may be likely
followed by other states. PSBS will be reimbursed by the state Govts for the
farm loan waiver; but private banks may not be and overall agri & also
other credit discipline of the system may also be affected going forward due
“moral hazard” of repeated loan waivers.
On
consolidated basis, around 30% of KMB loan book is now of corporates & 70%
consists of retail as of now after integration process with ING is completed.
Despite high savings interest rate of 6% in some of the select savings accounts
having min average balance above Rs.1 lakh, KMB’s average NIM was around 4.5%,
slightly higher than its peers (4%) because of high yielding retail &
corporate working capital loans; but post merger with ING, the average NIM
dipped below 4.5% to around 4.2%. After ING integration, PCR also declined
significantly from around 75% to 55% now. Credit costs has also increased post
merger with ING from around 0.3% to 0.6%; analysts are expecting it to be
stable around 0.40-0.35% in FY: 17-19.
KOTAK
BANK-CONS-Q3FY17
|
Dec
'16
|
Sep
'16
|
Jun
'16
|
Mar
'16
|
Dec
'15
|
YOY
|
QOQ
|
AVG
|
AVGR
|
SGR
|
PROJ(%)
|
Q4FY17
|
Q1FY18
|
i)
Gross NPA
|
3,367.67
|
3,395.48
|
3,265.18
|
3,016.55
|
2,870.84
|
17.31
|
-0.82
|
3137.01
|
7.35
|
4.06
|
3.73
|
3493.29
|
3623.61
|
ii)
Net NPA
|
1,450.43
|
1,622.15
|
1,565.40
|
1,353.03
|
1,200.21
|
20.85
|
-10.59
|
1435.20
|
1.06
|
5.01
|
0.17
|
1452.95
|
1455.47
|
i)
% of Gross NPA
|
2.11
|
2.18
|
2.2
|
2.06
|
2.01
|
4.98
|
-3.21
|
2.11
|
-0.12
|
1.28
|
-0.20
|
2.11
|
2.10
|
ii)
% of Net NPA
|
0.92
|
1.05
|
1.06
|
0.93
|
0.85
|
8.24
|
-12.38
|
0.97
|
-5.40
|
2.31
|
-3.35
|
0.89
|
0.86
|
NII
|
2,747.05
|
2,664.21
|
2,565.73
|
2,466.94
|
2,369.99
|
15.91
|
3.11
|
2516.72
|
9.15
|
3.72
|
4.99
|
2884.12
|
3028.04
|
OPM(%)
|
27.11
|
23.74
|
23.36
|
21.63
|
24.13
|
12.33
|
14.16
|
23.22
|
16.76
|
3.06
|
9.27
|
29.62
|
32.37
|
NP(%)
|
16.30
|
14.20
|
13.76
|
13.36
|
13.50
|
20.71
|
14.76
|
13.71
|
18.91
|
4.98
|
10.95
|
18.08
|
20.06
|
NIM
(%)
|
4.49
|
4.47
|
4.37
|
4.3
|
4.34
|
3.46
|
0.45
|
4.37
|
2.75
|
0.86
|
1.23
|
4.55
|
4.60
|
CORPORATE
ADV
|
48186
|
44243
|
42732
|
39946
|
39189
|
22.96
|
8.91
|
41527.50
|
16.03
|
5.33
|
9.00
|
52524.55
|
57253.72
|
RETAIL
ADV
|
109615
|
109835
|
104272
|
104847
|
101947
|
7.52
|
-0.20
|
105225.25
|
4.17
|
1.84
|
1.92
|
111722.33
|
113870.17
|
TOTAL
ADV
|
157801
|
154078
|
147004
|
144793
|
141136
|
11.81
|
2.42
|
146752.75
|
7.53
|
2.82
|
3.93
|
164001.40
|
170445.42
|
CORPORATE
ADV(%)
|
30.54
|
28.71
|
29.07
|
27.59
|
27.77
|
9.97
|
6.34
|
28.28
|
7.96
|
2.46
|
4.81
|
32.01
|
33.55
|
RETAIL
ADV (%)
|
69.46
|
71.29
|
70.93
|
72.41
|
72.23
|
-3.83
|
-2.55
|
71.72
|
-3.14
|
-0.96
|
-1.90
|
68.14
|
66.84
|
KMB
is now aiming to increase the share of corporate loan to 40% from the present
30% on consolidated basis by snatching business from the fragile PSBS batting
for stressed assets. The bank is now catering to 30 top big corporate groups in
India very successfully and is aiming to add another 10 such niche corporate
relationships by FY-18.
KMB
has also acquired around 500 quality borrowers in the last three years in the
large & medium sized corporate groups having minimum annual revenue of
Rs.250 cr; the bank is aiming to add/acquire another 200 such entities, from
the ailing PSBS as they have not enough capital for any revival in credit
demand. But, most of the corporates may be already leveraged and battling their
own stress in the balance sheet and lower capacity utilization & demand and
in such scenario, revival of any credit demand may also take significant time.
Previously,
KMB has given guidance at FY-16 for 20% loan growth, a credit cost of around
50-60 bps for FY-17. At FY-16, consolidated loan book was around Rs.144793 cr
and thus the guided loan book for FY-17 should be around Rs.174000 cr; as on
Q3FY17 it was at Rs.157801 cr; it may be little challenging to meet the
projected loan growth at FY-17, considering the overall tepid credit growth of
the Indian banking system, traditional conservative management of KMB, cultural
difference with erstwhile ING Vysya Bank despite a smooth integration. Also
GNPA/NNPA ratio of the KMB has increased by some extent after integration with
ING, which contributed around 6% of GNPA to the merged entity, equivalent to
2.5% of the loan book of the merged entity.
On
a standalone basis, non interest income of KMB may be robust on the back of
core fee income and treasury gains and on an average over 50% of the PBT is
coming from corporate/wholesale segment; rest is divided between retail banking
and treasury income (around 25% each). Going forward, analysts are expecting
around 19% CAGR in FY: 17-18 for the non interest income of KMB (standalone).
As
par SOTP method calculated by various analysts based on some projected
parameters of FY: 18-19, median value of KMB may be around 888 for FY-18 &
1015 for FY-19:
SOTP
|
I-DIRECT
|
HDFC-SEC
|
MOSL(FY-19)
|
KMB(BANKING
OPERATIONS)
|
689
|
777
|
774
|
KOTAK
LIFE
|
26
|
25
|
34
|
KOTAK
PRIME
|
66
|
94
|
91
|
KOTAK
CAPITAL
|
12
|
33
|
22
|
KOTAK
SECURITIES
|
31
|
27
|
39
|
KOTAK
AUM
|
16
|
19
|
55
|
SUBSIDIARY
VALUE
|
151
|
198
|
241
|
LESS:
HOLDING DISCOUNT(%)
|
0
|
20
|
0
|
NET
SUBSIDIARY VALUE
|
151
|
158.4
|
241
|
MEDIN
VALUE (KMB)
|
840
|
935.4
|
1015
|
For
KMB, all the subsidiaries are contributing around 30% altogether to the
consolidated profit and rest 70% is being generated by the banking operations.
Thus, subsidiaries are also playing a vital role in overall KMB structure and
out of those Kotak Prime (Car Finance), Kotak Securities & Kotak Life are
making significant contributions in consolidated PAT.
PAT-SUBSIDIARIES
|
Dec
'16
|
Sep
'16
|
Jun
'16
|
Mar
'16
|
Dec
'15
|
YOY
|
QOQ
|
AVG
|
AVGR
|
SGR
|
PROJ(%)
|
Q4FY17
|
Q1FY18
|
KMB(BANKING
OPERATIONS)
|
880
|
813
|
742
|
696
|
635
|
38.58
|
8.24
|
721.50
|
21.97
|
8.30
|
12.04
|
985.93
|
1104.61
|
KOTAK
PRIME
|
133
|
130
|
120
|
130
|
126
|
5.56
|
2.31
|
126.50
|
5.14
|
1.51
|
2.59
|
136.44
|
139.97
|
KOTAK
INVESTMENTS
|
48
|
53
|
40
|
50
|
39
|
23.08
|
-9.43
|
45.50
|
5.49
|
6.27
|
2.02
|
48.97
|
49.96
|
KOTAK
LIFE
|
68
|
63
|
71
|
77
|
60
|
13.33
|
7.94
|
67.75
|
0.37
|
2.74
|
3.59
|
70.44
|
72.98
|
KOTAK
AMC
|
16
|
7
|
19
|
25
|
4
|
300.00
|
128.57
|
13.75
|
16.36
|
31.35
|
62.82
|
26.05
|
42.42
|
KOTAK
SECURITIES
|
85
|
96
|
60
|
51
|
55
|
54.55
|
-11.46
|
65.50
|
29.77
|
14.59
|
11.63
|
94.89
|
105.93
|
KOTAK
CAPITAL
|
7
|
5
|
23
|
17
|
6
|
16.67
|
40.00
|
12.75
|
-45.10
|
15.43
|
3.63
|
7.25
|
7.52
|
INTT
SUBSIDIARIES
|
22
|
31
|
13
|
22
|
26
|
-15.38
|
-29.03
|
23.00
|
-4.35
|
12.58
|
-6.16
|
20.64
|
19.37
|
OTHERS
|
-9
|
-6
|
2
|
-2
|
-2
|
350.00
|
50.00
|
-2.00
|
350.00
|
-137.50
|
87.50
|
-16.88
|
-31.64
|
SUBSIDIARIES
|
370
|
379
|
348
|
370
|
314
|
17.83
|
-2.37
|
352.75
|
4.89
|
3.93
|
2.73
|
380.09
|
390.45
|
TOTAL
|
1250
|
1192
|
1090
|
1066
|
949
|
31.72
|
4.87
|
1074.25
|
16.36
|
6.86
|
9.00
|
1362.56
|
1485.25
|
MINORITY
INTT
|
-18
|
-16
|
-19
|
-20
|
-15
|
20.00
|
12.50
|
-17.50
|
2.86
|
4.18
|
6.13
|
-19.10
|
-20.28
|
OTHERS
|
35
|
26
|
-4
|
9
|
11
|
218.18
|
34.62
|
10.50
|
233.33
|
-220.51
|
25.50
|
43.92
|
55.12
|
TOTAL
CONS PAT
|
1267
|
1202
|
1067
|
1055
|
945
|
34.07
|
5.41
|
1067.25
|
18.72
|
7.41
|
10.01
|
1393.85
|
1533.41
|
SUBSIDIARY
SHARE(%)
|
29.20
|
31.53
|
32.61
|
35.07
|
33.23
|
-12.11
|
-7.38
|
33.11
|
-11.80
|
-3.11
|
-6.33
|
27.35
|
25.62
|
Acquisition
of ING Vysya by KMB (effective from FY-16) has put the bank into a formidable
presence in Southern India market with higher SME portfolios along with some
other operational synergies. Over the years KMB is able to maintain its
standard of asset/loan portfolio despite tough macroeconomic condition on the
basis of its prudent & conservative management and a super efficient
recovery mechanism. Looking ahead, for sustained growth, KMB has to grow its loan
portfolio incrementally; but in that process, may also sacrifice some of its
quality for quantity.
KMB
has recently got approval from RBI to launch an “Infra Debt Fund” (IDF) to fund
upcoming infra projects and also any existing/completed infra projects having
track record of at least one year of satisfactory running (commercially
viable). Previously, KMB as a policy, shunned the infra projects unlike ICICI
& Axis bank because of uncertainties of completion & commercial
viability of such projects. Thus, KMB was able to avoid any large scale NPA in
the infra sector unlike its private peers (ICICI & Axis); but after NAMO’s
convincing win in UP/huge political mandate may have changed that perception of
the Bank and it now believes old turbulence (policy paralysis) may be now over
and going forward, the uncertainties of the infra sector will be lower and cash
flow will become more predictable with more upcoming projects. There are
already three such NBFC-IDC operating in India as of now (ICICI; LT & IDFC)
and they have already refinanced around Rs.10000 cr worth of infra projects.
Due to nature of long gestation period and unpredictable cash flows, these
infra projects may not be suitable for typical bank finance. Thus, KMB is
taking some risks in “letter & spirit” of its “animal spirit” by funding
the infra sector in pursuit of an incrementally higher growth, which may also
affect its credit quality to some extent in the coming days.
As
par KMB management, the banks targets to double its organic customer base by
FY-19 and aims for a consolidated PAT of Rs.7219 cr and a BVPS of 241 which
translates into an average CAGR of around 23% over FY: 17-19. But for this KMB
may also need to grow inorganically apart from its various strategies for
organic growth and thus need to further raise capital at the expense of an
incrementally higher dilution of its equity. The consistent trend of equity
dilution may be one of the major factors for limited upside in the stock price
despite management’s thirst for an “animal spirit” of growth.
By
its digital initiative of “811”, KMB may now want to be a bank for mass
customers rather than largely for affluent (HNI) clients as of now. By “811”,
KMB may pose major challenge to its peers/competitors; but that may not lead to
a significant upgrade in financials/core earnings.
No
doubt, KMB is one of the great stories in Indian private banking space, where
for new generations bank, 25% CAGR in earnings may be the minimum bench mark;
but the space may be also maturing for saturation after years of high growth
and a growing competition among the peers & also new entrants. Valuation
wise the scrip may be quite expensive at around 900 & TTM PE of 35 and from
the recent time & price action, it seems that almost all the positive news
may have been already discounted by the market. The scrip has rallied around
30% from its early Jan’17 low till few days ago.
Thus,
for investors buy either on some dips around 770-720 or on technical breakout
above 925 may fetch decent return in KMB for near to long term target of
975-1015 & 1080.
|
Mar
'16
|
Mar
'15
|
Mar
'14
|
Mar
'13
|
Mar
'12
|
FY:12-16
|
FY:15-16
|
AVG
|
AVGR
|
SGR
|
PROJ(%)
|
FY-17
|
FY-18
|
||||
Interest
Earned
|
|||||||||||||||||
(a)
Int. /Disc. on Adv/Bills
|
15,412.37
|
10,121.19
|
9,029.57
|
8,219.70
|
6,551.93
|
135.23
|
52.28
|
8480.60
|
81.74
|
23.63
|
47.86
|
22789.16
|
33696.69
|
||||
(b)
Income on Investment
|
4,408.28
|
3,050.55
|
2,841.77
|
2,478.73
|
1,840.54
|
139.51
|
44.51
|
2552.90
|
72.68
|
23.06
|
43.78
|
6338.28
|
9113.25
|
||||
(c)
Int. on balances With RBI
|
132.05
|
61.02
|
68.55
|
100.26
|
41.11
|
221.21
|
116.40
|
67.74
|
94.95
|
33.20
|
74.96
|
231.04
|
404.24
|
||||
(d)
Others
|
448.94
|
86.13
|
46.02
|
39.18
|
36.85
|
1118.29
|
421.24
|
52.05
|
762.60
|
132.95
|
399.09
|
2240.61
|
11182.65
|
||||
INTEREST
INCOME
|
20,401.64
|
13,318.89
|
11,985.91
|
10,837.87
|
8,470.43
|
140.86
|
53.18
|
11153.28
|
82.92
|
24.18
|
48.87
|
30372.80
|
45217.30
|
||||
Other
Income
|
7,572.88
|
8,103.86
|
5,249.72
|
5,075.23
|
4,466.97
|
69.53
|
-6.55
|
5723.95
|
32.30
|
15.81
|
14.74
|
8688.78
|
9969.11
|
||||
TOTAL
REVENUE
|
27,974.52
|
21,422.75
|
17,235.63
|
15,913.10
|
12,937.40
|
116.23
|
30.58
|
16877.22
|
65.75
|
20.47
|
36.47
|
38175.82
|
52097.18
|
||||
EXPENDITURE
|
|||||||||||||||||
Interest
Expended
|
11,122.97
|
6,966.10
|
6,312.12
|
6,024.49
|
4,541.96
|
144.89
|
59.67
|
5961.17
|
86.59
|
24.85
|
51.84
|
16888.58
|
25642.81
|
||||
Employees
Cost
|
3,854.05
|
2,375.47
|
1,915.12
|
1,773.51
|
1,601.54
|
140.65
|
62.24
|
1916.41
|
101.11
|
25.99
|
56.13
|
6017.17
|
9394.37
|
||||
Other
Expenses
|
6,982.20
|
7,325.47
|
5,003.92
|
4,787.76
|
4,038.65
|
72.88
|
-4.69
|
5288.95
|
32.01
|
15.47
|
15.25
|
8047.29
|
9274.85
|
||||
OPEX
|
21,959.22
|
16,667.04
|
13,231.16
|
12,585.76
|
10,182.15
|
115.66
|
31.75
|
13166.53
|
66.78
|
20.49
|
36.98
|
30080.59
|
41205.57
|
||||
EBITDA
|
6,015.30
|
4,755.71
|
4,004.47
|
3,327.34
|
2,755.25
|
118.32
|
26.49
|
3710.69
|
62.11
|
20.70
|
34.72
|
8103.68
|
10917.09
|
||||
Depreciation
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||
EBITA
|
6,015.30
|
4,755.71
|
4,004.47
|
3,327.34
|
2,755.25
|
118.32
|
26.49
|
3710.69
|
62.11
|
20.70
|
34.72
|
8103.68
|
10917.09
|
||||
Provisions
|
991.56
|
205.73
|
308.97
|
183.18
|
98.7
|
904.62
|
381.97
|
199.15
|
397.91
|
115.84
|
280.47
|
3772.57
|
14353.41
|
||||
Exceptional
Items
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
||||
PBT
|
5,023.74
|
4,549.98
|
3,695.50
|
3,144.16
|
2,656.55
|
89.11
|
10.41
|
3511.55
|
43.06
|
16.64
|
23.10
|
6184.19
|
7612.70
|
||||
Tax
|
1,592.62
|
1,484.90
|
1,183.96
|
939.95
|
806.01
|
97.59
|
7.25
|
1103.71
|
44.30
|
18.22
|
23.54
|
1967.57
|
2430.78
|
||||
PAT
|
3,431.12
|
3,065.08
|
2,511.54
|
2,204.21
|
1,850.54
|
85.41
|
11.94
|
2407.84
|
42.50
|
15.99
|
22.95
|
4218.44
|
5186.42
|
||||
Minority
Interest
|
-65.19
|
-59.51
|
-62.17
|
-49.33
|
-52.84
|
23.37
|
9.54
|
-55.96
|
16.49
|
6.04
|
9.48
|
-71.37
|
-78.14
|
||||
Share
Of P/L Of Associates
|
92.92
|
39.88
|
15.62
|
33.58
|
34.55
|
168.94
|
133.00
|
30.91
|
200.64
|
57.98
|
108.46
|
193.71
|
403.81
|
||||
Net
P/L After M.I & Associates
|
3,458.85
|
3,045.45
|
2,464.99
|
2,188.46
|
1,832.25
|
88.78
|
13.57
|
2382.79
|
45.16
|
16.51
|
24.36
|
4301.40
|
5349.19
|
||||
Equity
Share Capital
|
917.19
|
386.18
|
385.16
|
373.3
|
370.34
|
147.66
|
137.50
|
378.75
|
142.17
|
35.43
|
88.00
|
1724.36
|
3241.88
|
||||
EPS
|
18.86
|
39.43
|
32.00
|
29.31
|
24.74
|
-23.78
|
-52.18
|
31.37
|
-39.89
|
-1.05
|
-24.77
|
14.19
|
10.67
|
||||
EPS(REPORTED)
|
|||||||||||||||||
Basic
EPS
|
18.91
|
39.49
|
32.19
|
29.44
|
24.81
|
-23.78
|
-52.11
|
31.48
|
-39.93
|
-1.09
|
-24.77
|
14.23
|
10.70
|
||||
Diluted
EPS
|
18.87
|
39.4
|
32.14
|
29.33
|
24.67
|
-23.51
|
-52.11
|
31.39
|
-39.88
|
-1.01
|
23.00
|
23.21
|
28.55
|
||||
AVERAGE
PE
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
||||||||||
MEDIAN
VALUATION
|
471.75
|
985.00
|
803.50
|
733.25
|
616.75
|
580.25
|
713.71
|
||||||||||
Book
Value (Rs)
|
181.86
|
286.63
|
247.64
|
204.25
|
174.18
|
4.41
|
-36.55
|
228.18
|
-20.30
|
3.79
|
19.50
|
217.32
|
259.70
|
||||
AVERAGE
PB
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
3.25
|
||||||||||
MEDIAN
VALUATION
|
591.05
|
931.55
|
804.83
|
663.81
|
566.09
|
706.30
|
844.03
|
||||||||||
i)
Gross NPA
|
3,016.55
|
1,392.35
|
1,177.80
|
848.36
|
699.74
|
331.10
|
116.65
|
1029.56
|
192.99
|
47.80
|
110.06
|
6336.44
|
13310.07
|
||||
ii)
Net NPA
|
1,353.03
|
697.44
|
633.81
|
361.22
|
273.43
|
394.84
|
94.00
|
491.48
|
175.30
|
50.95
|
104.74
|
2770.19
|
5671.69
|
||||
i)
% of Gross NPA
|
2.06
|
1.56
|
1.63
|
1.27
|
1.31
|
57.25
|
32.05
|
1.44
|
42.81
|
13.24
|
25.60
|
2.59
|
3.25
|
||||
ii)
% of Net NPA
|
0.93
|
0.79
|
0.88
|
0.55
|
0.51
|
82.35
|
17.72
|
0.68
|
36.26
|
18.69
|
23.32
|
1.15
|
1.41
|
||||
PCR(%)
|
55.5
|
53.1
|
60.3
|
75.9
|
75.4
|
-26.39
|
4.52
|
66.18
|
-16.13
|
-6.83
|
-6.26
|
52.03
|
48.77
|
||||
NIM(%0
|
4.3
|
||||||||||||||||
CREDIT
COSTS(%)
|
0.63
|
0.62
|
0.27
|
0.33
|
0.21
|
200.00
|
1.61
|
0.36
|
76.22
|
37.36
|
41.30
|
0.89
|
1.26
|
||||
SLIPPAGE
RATIO
|
2.68
|
2.51
|
1.58
|
0.97
|
0.9
|
197.78
|
6.77
|
1.49
|
79.87
|
33.93
|
42.50
|
3.82
|
5.44
|
Analytical Charts: Kotak Bk
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