Market Mantra: 18/04/2017
(08:30)
SGX-NF: 9155 (-11
points)
Key support for NF:
9115-9035
Key resistance for NF:
9200-9280
Key support for BNF:
21675-21500
Key resistance for
BNF: 21775-21875
As par early SGX indication,
Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9155, almost flat following mixed global cues.
US market yesterday made some recovery (+0.90%) on the back of upbeat earnings
expectations from financials & banks and defence related stocks. Also, some
comments by US TSY Sec underplaying Trump’s recent rhetoric about strength of
USD has helped the USDJPY to bounce back from the vital 108 level triggering some
“risk on” trade late yesterday. Us TSY Sec (Mnuchin) made a comment in an FT
interview that although strength of USD may be bad for US exports in the short
term, it may be good for overall US economy in the long term and Trump’s effort
to talk down the USD is different from any real action; it was just a view of
Prez Trump. Mnuchin also emphasized for US tax reform (cut), but at the same
time also acknowledged about hurdle of passage of the same in the US Cong/senate
just like the fate of the health care bill.
It now seems that US politics
(Trump & Co) is driving the USD rather than Fed and Trump is using the
present geopolitical tensions over Syria/NK to devalue the USD, just by
dropping some missiles/bombs!!
But despite upbeat comments by
US TSY Sec, market is concerned that NK may be again trying for a nuke test
shortly despite China’s effort to pacify both the sides (US & NK). US on
the other hand is trying to install some missile defence system in SK, which
China is vigorously opposing. Thus, the overall lingering geopolitical issues
involving NK & US has dented the sentiment of the Asian market.
Among all these ongoing global
jitters, Indian market so far was steady overall and trading in a defined range
for the last few weeks. All eyes may be on TCS (Q4 result) and also on the
other IT outsourcing cos as Trump may review & sign some bills later in the
day today for further restrictions of H1B Visa.
Market may also look into IMD’s
1st official forecast (around 15:00 hrs today) about trajectory of
monsoon this year. Any forecast of deficient rainfall because of looming threat
for El-Nino may also spoil the bull party in the coming days.
PNB & BOB may be also in
focus today after repots of small PSBS merger (like SBI) with them. Also, IIB
& Yes Bank will be in focus for their result tomorrow. As par some reports,
NIM of IIB may fall slightly to 3.80-3.60% this time, although it’s poised to
report another “bumper” quarter.
Hints for actionable
trading idea: Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut
Time & Price action
suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9235
area for further rally towards 9280-9310 & 9375-9425
in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining
below 9215-9200 area, NF may fall towards 9160/40-9115 &
9085-9035 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to
sustain over 21825 area for further rally towards 21875-21975 & 22050-22150
area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side,
sustaining below 21775 area, BNF may fall towards 21600-21500 & 21340-21200
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
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