Nifty May Open Subdued & Almost Flat Following Tepid Global Cues; IT & Banks And Telecoms May Be Under Pressure Today After Disappointing Results/H1B Visa Issues And Another “Mini AQR” By RBI

Market Mantra: 19/04/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9115 (-1 points)

Key support for NF: 9085-9025

Key resistance for NF: 9200-9275

Key support for BNF: 21675-21500

Key resistance for BNF: 21775-21875

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9115, almost flat following tepid global cues. Overnight US market closed in negative (-0.55%) following below expected results from GS and lingering geopolitical issues. Apart from ongoing NK tussles, a sudden snap election in UK (for Brexit issue), closely fight election in France next week; apprehension about Trumponomics may have made risk off trade both in US & globally. Slump in iron ore prices may be also responsible for adverse risk on sentiment, especially in China.

The sudden election in UK may be seen as a 2^nd referendum for Brexit (confirmation) and as PM (May) is leading in the opinion polls convincingly, this election verdict may provide necessary supports/background for a “soft Brexit” negotiation for UK. Thus GBP gained strength yesterday on the perception of soft favourable Brexit negotiations rather than a hard Brexit or no negotiation at all. But, eventually, it will depend upon the EU authorities for a soft or hard approach in dealings with UK’s separation/divorce from EU.

Among all these ongoing global jitters, Indian market may also open weak today. Going forward, technically 9085 area may be closely watched for any intra bounce back or more corrections. Disappointing report card from anther IT bigwig yesterday (TCS), H1B Visa issues, geopolitical issues (nationalism), another “Mini AQR” by RBI, downbeat GDP projection for FY-18 by IMF (7.2% from earlier 7.6%) may keep the domestic market in some of pressure today.

Market will also look into Q4FY17 earnings & guidance from the two leading private banks today (IIB/Yes Bank) and in case of a significant variation from expectations; we may see more volatility in the coming days.

Also, cautious monsoon forecast by IMD yesterday may keep the market volatile.

Hints for actionable trading idea: Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9115 area for further rally towards 9175-9210 & 9255-9310 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 9085 area, NF may fall towards 9025-8970 & 8925-8865 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21825 area for further rally towards 21875-21975 & 22050-22150 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 21775 area, BNF may fall towards 21675-21615 & 21550-21425 and further to 21325-21150 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

SGX-NF