Market Wrap: 10/04/2017
(19:00)
NSE-NF (April): 9209
(-2 points; -0.03%)
NSE-BNF (April): 21569
(+127 points; +0.59%)
IN 10Y G-SEC: 6.865
(+0.65%)
USDINR (Apr): 64.6925
(+0.44%)
For 11/04/2017:
Key support for NF: 9180-9135
Key resistance for NF: 9255-9305
Key support for BNF: 21340-21240
Key resistance for BNF:
21675-21775
Time & Price action suggests that,
Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9305 area for further rally towards 9375-9425
& 9465-9505 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below 9275-9255
area, NF may fall towards 9180/9160-9135/9115 and further 9085-9040 area in the
short term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21775
area for further rally towards 21875-21950 & 22050-22150 area in the near
term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
21725-21675 area, BNF may fall towards 21600-21450 & 21340-21240 and
further 21100-20900 zone in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (Apr) today closed around 9209, almost flat but well off the opening
session high of around 9248; NF made a day low of around 9194 today. Indian
market today opened flat following mixed global cues ahead of a scheduled
speech of Yellen today.
Although,
headline US NFP data was terrible on Friday, at the same time unemployment rate
was also fallen to 4.5% with an expected growth of hourly wages at 0.2% (MOM). Apart
from some winter storm related seasonal factors for the poor NFP at 98k, some
analysts are also pointing out that with unemployment rate at historical low
level, fresh job additions for the US economy may continue to be tepid as
unemployment level is itself low now. Also, decent wage growth along with a steady
employment rate may help the much awaited wage inflation & discretionary consumer
spending with the US economy going forward. Thus, Fed may be still on its way
for another two hikes in Sep & Dec this year, if not in June’17. For US
economy, rather than job numbers, quality of jobs & skill of the workers
may be more important now.
Also,
some of the Fed speakers pointed out that despite real probability of Fed’s
balance sheet unwinding; i.e. tapering of the $3 tln QE bond holdings from the
$4.5 tln balance sheet of Fed, there may not be any significant pause of rate
hikes by FOMC in the coming months. If Fed is going for a phased selling/tapering
of its QE bond holdings & not reinvesting the principal proceeds from such
bond holdings, then supply of USTSY bonds may multiply in the market, which may
also cause a significant spike in USTSY bond yields. This may also make both
USD & real rate of interest for the US economy higher.
Thus,
a hawkish Fed thinking of multiple rate hikes & balance sheet unwinding is
supporting the USD right now and USDJPY was bounced back from the key level of
110 on Friday itself. For EM, such unusually hawkish Fed may again cause some taper
tantrum even if there is no real indication of Trump’s tax reform & huge
fiscal/infra spending plan as of now. India being a part & parcel of the
same EM, may also be affected for some fund outflow with gradual strength in
USDINR in the days ahead despite relatively stable macro & politically,
also being a very stable democracy. As a
result, USDINR today rebounded to around 64.70. Technically, USDINR-I now has
to sustain over 64.25-64.10 level for any rally towards 64.90-65.60 & 67
zone in the short to mid-term.
Back
to home, Indian market today was under some pressure ahead of Infy result on 13th
Apr. Today IT stocks including Infy dragged the market as a US based technology
research firm (Gartner) has predicted tepid IT spending growth globally in 2017
(from prior 2.7% to 1.4%).
RIL
today also contributed by some extent to Nifty’s fall in continuation of yesterday
after TRAI order to discontinue R-Jio’s promotional offer & start the
commercial service. There was also some report that R-Jio may again change its
tariff structure and market is also apprehending some disruptions in the
telecom space again, which is already under severe stress. As par reports, Govt’s
share of telecom revenue collection also affected due to low predatory pricing
by R-Jio. Also, various state Govts are expected to lose significant revenue
for prohibition of liquor & meat production/sales/exports. Thus market may
be also apprehending ballooning combined fiscal deficits in FY-18 on the back
of farm loan waivers & other political populism, which may also increase
real cost of borrowing for the business & retails.
Yes
Bank (+2.77%) & BPCL (+3.69%) today gave some support to Nifty; Yes bank
was upgraded by MOSL recently for a FY-19 target of 2110 on the back of projected
25% CAGR in EPS/BVPS & strong asset quality. BPCL & other oil marketing
firms continued their rally on the new of daily price fixation of petrol &
diesel in lieu of present system of every fortnight.
Technically, Yes Bank (LTP:1600) has to
sustain over 1610-1630 zone for any further rally towards 1675-1730 & 1810
in the short to medium term; on the flip side, sustaining below 1590-1575 area,
the momentum in the stock may be lost and it may fall towards 1540-1520 &
consistent closing below that 1460-1420 may be the short term target.
Although, the stock is relatively less expensive to some of its peers
(IIB/Kotak) at a glance, consistent EQ dilution (QIP) and lack of “animal
spirit” in growth & expansion may be one of the reasons for its current
multiple, which may not be termed as cheap but less expensive to some of its
peers.
SGX-NF
BNF
YES BK
USDINR-I
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