Market Wrap: 12/04/2017
(19:00)
NSE-NF (April): 9226
(-38 points; -0.42%)
NSE-BNF (April): 21714
(-45 points; -0.21%)
IN 10Y G-SEC: 6.782
(-0.38%)
USDINR (Apr): 64.77
(+0.21%)
For 12/04/2017:
Key support for NF: 9170-9115
Key resistance for NF: 9280-9315
Key support for BNF: 21675-21450
Key resistance for BNF:
21775-21875
Time & Price action suggests that,
Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9315 area for further rally towards 9375-9425
& 9465-9505 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below 9295/9275
area, NF may fall towards 9215-9170/9150 & 9115/9085-9040 area in the short
term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over
21825 area for further rally towards 21875-21975 & 22050-22150 area in the near
term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
21775 area, BNF may fall towards 21600-21450 & 21300-21150 area in the near
term (under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (Apr) today closed around 9226, down by 0.42% after making an opening
session high of 9262 and day low of 9170. Indian market today opened in a
negative bias following lingering geopolitical concerns over NK/Syria/US issue;
but despite some positive cues from EU market, the domestic market dragged lower
as long unwinding may be happening before start of Q4 earnings season. Although
market may be covering shorts at every dips, it seems that no significant long
position is being built at the higher levels to continue further upwards
momentum. Although, FII(s) are net buyers in the FNO segment, they are also
consistent sellers in the cash segment for the last few days and may be also writing
calls at every higher levels and overall, market may be waiting for the actual earnings
trends in Q4 as valuation is already quite expensive.
For
FY-17, Nifty EPS expectations may be around 6-10% (395-410) and for FY:18-19,
analysts are projecting 15-20% double digit growth after last few years single
digit growth of around 7% on an average. Market may be very optimistic about phenomenal
EPS growth from metals & PSBS this time (favourable base effect &
better operating leverages and stable NPA?).
Market
is also expecting a tepid earning from Infy this time also on the back of weak
USDINR & other cross currency headwinds, changing landscape of IT
technology, H1B visa issues etc. More than earnings, market may closely watch
its guidance and a probable announcement of share buybacks. Infy’s earnings
& guidance tomorrow may be vital as it may set the trend of report card of
other IT companies.
Technically, for Infy, 930-900 area is
vital and consecutive closing below that, the stock may correct more; otherwise
it will bounce back.
Apart
from IT, Indian market today was dragged by Tata Steel (concern for its
proposed German JV & tepid metal prices), RIL (concern for its telecom
venture as it seems that R-Jio is reluctant to start commercially despite TRAI
direction), PSBS & some private banks, Adani Ports (adverse SC order on
Adani Powers) & Maruti.
Nifty
was supported by Infratel (buzz of M&A with Indus tower), Yes Bank, Eicher
Motors (analyst’s upgrade) & Sun Pharma
Meanwhile,
Indian CPI & IIP data just now flashed as:
CPI
(March): 3.81% (estimate: 3.98%; prior: 3.65%)
Core
CPI: 4.90% (Prior: 4.83%)
IIP
(YOY-Feb): -1.2% (estimate: 1.3%; prior: 2.7%)
Mfg.
Output (MOM-Feb): -2% (prior: 2.3%)
Cumulative
Industrial Production (Feb): 0.4% (prior: 0.60%)
At
a glance, incrementally lower IIP data may be signaling tepid economic
activity. Although, headline CPI was higher primarily due to increase in fuel
prices and also helped by lower food inflation, RBI may not oblige to shift its
stance from neutral to accommodative and cut in Aug’17 as expected by some
analysts as overall CPI trajectory is upwards.
Going
forward, even without external factors, RBI may be in pause in FY-18 due to uncertainties
about GST, 7-CPC arrears, monsoon and its overall effect on the CPI. Although,
as par old series & also some high frequency data, India’s GDP may be
growing below 5%, Govt/RBI may not acknowledge it officially and thus despite
tepid IIP/ real growth & higher CPI, RBI may be on hold, if not hike in
FY-18. An economy, officially growing around 7-8% with a headline CPI of around
4.5-5.5%, does not require any rate cuts from the central bank; otherwise it
may form bubble (too much hot economy).
All
being equal, real transmissions factors may be now more important for the banks
for more rate cuts by the RBI. But, for that, some structural reform may be
necessary by the Govt, like lowering of India’s small savings rate. Also, any
drastic rate cut by RBI may also affect INR adversely and subsequently Indian
bond yields may also slide affecting FPIS inflows significantly. Bond markets
may be more important for the Govt to finance its fiscal deficit (capex).
Also,
IMD may shortly provide its first official forecast about 2017 monsoon
trajectory in India and market may be also apprehending that as deficient
monsoon this year on the back of El-Nino (as par Skymet).
Globally,
EU market sentiment was improved today after a telephonic conversation between
Trump & Chinese Prez (Xi) to diffuse the lingering geopolitical tensions in
NK region in a peaceful manner rather than a war. Trump is also now showing
some urgency for a consensus with the warring RNC members to pass his health
care bill & repel the Obamacare. As par reports, Trump may also shortly
take his “phenomenal” tax cut and also the infra spending plans shortly, irrespective
of the fate of health care bill. But this rhetoric is nothing new and market
may be eager to see some real action in this regard; otherwise reflation/Trump
trade may be in jeopardy.
In
EU, better wage growth and employment numbers in UK may have also helped the
sentiment despite concerns of French election and Brexit.
Watch 109-107 zone in USDJPY &
2335-2325 zone in $SPX-500 for any further “risk off” trade; otherwise expect
some bounce back.
SGX-NF
BNF
USDJPY
SPX-500
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