Thursday, 20 April 2017

Nifty May Open Almost Flat Tracking Mixed Global Cues Amid Some Earning Disappointment In Wall Street & Slide In Oil; All Eyes May Be On The Banks Today For Sudden Surge In Stressed Assets As A Result Of RBI Mini AQR

Market Mantra: 20/04/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9134 (-11 points)

Key support for NF: 9115-9085/60

Key resistance for NF: 9180/9200-9255

Key support for BNF: 21500-21300

Key resistance for BNF: 21675-21775


As par early SGX indication, Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9134, almost flat amid mixed global cues. Overnight US market closed in red (-0.55%) after subdued earnings from IBM and slide in oil due to less than expected inventory draw down. Although, most of the Q1CY17 earnings from Wall Street are better than expected, there were also some aberrations from some big names like GS & IBM. Also, an impending election in France on Sunday (1st round) is being seen as too close and thus market sentiment is also cautious after bitter experience for Brexit & also Trumpism. As par some reports, a US professor, who successfully predicted a Trump win in the hay days, is now again forecasting a probable impeachment of Trump in the coming days by US congress/senate for various reasons. All these may have made the US stock market in some pressure along with lingering geopolitical concerns over NK & Syria.


Among all these ongoing global headwinds & tailwinds, Dalal Street may focus more on the banks today after sudden surge in stressed assets amid a mini RBI AQR (NPL belongs to infra/steel/cement/power & telecom sectors). Although, IIB & Yes banks reported more or less PAT & other operating parameters as par market expectations, the sudden surge in NPL, even for a one off single A/C (JP Associates/Jaypee Gr) may be seen as an indication for incremental rise in corporate NPL even for the new generation private banks, which are so far apparently insulated from the NPA mess. Yesterday, IMF again warned that EM as well as India Inc may face significant headwinds for worsening financials as a result of rising US & other DM protectionism.


Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9200 area for further rally towards 9255-9310 & 9375-9425 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 9180 area, NF may fall towards 9115-9085/60 & 9025-8970 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21775 area for further rally towards 21875-21975 & 22050-22150 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 21725-675 area, BNF may fall towards 21600-21500 & 21400-21250 and further to 21150-20900 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



SGX-NF

No comments:

Post a Comment