Market Mantra: 26/04/2017
(08:30)
SGX-NF: 9310 (+15
points)
For the Day:
Key support for NF:
9275-9235
Key resistance for NF:
9340-9385
Key support for BNF:
21975-21825
Key resistance for
BNF: 22050-22150
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around
9210, in slight gap up following positive global cues. Overnight US market also
rallied by around 1% on the back of upbeat Q1 earnings & hopes for a “huge”
tax cut plan by Trump today.
Although, most of the US corporates are reporting better than
expected EPS (earnings) with an average YOY growth of more than 10%, core
earnings may not be so much upbeat as cross currency gains (other income) may
be helping a great part of their earnings so far.
Also, Trump is expected to just outline his “vision” on his “phenomenal”
tax cut/reform plan; the actual tax reform bill may be still far away and is expected
to finalize only by Sep’17 or later. Trump is expected to announce the tax plan
as par his election rhetoric at around 20% for corporate tax with highest slab
at 25% (??) with similar cuts in personal tax too. Thus, market is expecting as
a result of Trump’s huge tax cut plan by around 10-15% (?), both US corporates
& consumers may have greater cash flow/income in hand, which they will
spend to stimulate the economy. But, even its passed in Trump’s way, there may
be significant concern for US fiscal deficit funding and with Trump’s another
plan for huge infra/fiscal spending, the fiscal math may be more complex.
Eventually, if Trump fails to deliver more details about his Tax
plan today, market may be highly disappointed and it may be another case for “buy
the rumour & sell the news/fact”. In any way, passage of Trump’s tax plan
may happen only in CY-18 and in that scenario effect of it on the US economy
& corporate earnings may be still far away.
Indian market may look to result of Axis Bank today for a cue
about stressed assets in the old generation private banks (ICICI) after tepid
guidance from Wipro yesterday (although Q4 result may be better than expected).
Expected huge win by BJP in the Delhi MCD may also help the
market sentiment today as it will prove that regional anti-establishment party’s
days are over in India.
Hints for actionable
trading ideas for NF & BNF:
Time & Price
action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9340 area for further
rally towards 9385-9435 & 9505-9550 in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On flip side,
sustaining below 9320-9275 area, NF may fall towards 9235-9180 &
9115-9080/8995 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to
sustain over 22150 area for further rally towards 22305-22400 &
22500-22650/22800 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 22100-22050 area, BNF may fall towards 21975-21825 &
21650-21350 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 21825 area, BNF may fall towards 21700-21600 & 21450-21300
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
NF
No comments:
Post a Comment