Market Wrap: 13/06/2017
(17:00)
NSE-NF (June): 9613 (-7;
-0.63%) (TTM PE: 24.32; Near 2 SD of 25; TTM EPS: 395; NS-9606)
NSE-BNF (June): 23436 (-20;
-0.08%) (TTM PE: 29.53; Near 3 SD of 30; TTM EPS: 795; BNS-23478)
For 14/06/2017:
Key support for NF: 9595/9570-9530
Key resistance for NF:
9675-9715
Key support for BNF: 23400/23350-23200
Key resistance for
BNF: 23650-23750
Time & Price action suggests that,
Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9675 area for further rally towards 9715-9770
& 9825-9865 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On flip side, sustaining below 9655
area, NF may fall towards 9595/9570-9530 & 9490-9415 area in the short term
(under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over
23650 area for further rally towards 23750-23875 & 24000-24100 area in the
near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below
23600 area, BNF may fall towards 23400-23350 & 23200-23050 area in the near
term (under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (June) today closed around 9613, dropped by 7 points, after erasing all its
intraday gains from the day high of 9661 to closing session low of 9608. Indian
market today opened almost 15 points gap up amid mixed global cues and optimism
about an Aug or even early rate cut by RBI following lower headline CPI
yesterday at 2.18%. Overnight, US market closed almost flat (-0.17%) amid
ongoing concern about Tech shares; but better than expected yields in 10YUSYSY
bonds and some roll back of the Dodd Frank rules may have helped the financials
& banks.
USDJPY was also recovered from its intermediate support, helping
some risk-on trade ahead of key US economic data & Fed. FOMC is almost
poised for a 0.25% rate hike on 14th June; but more than rate cut,
Fed’s guidance will matter most and any indication about gradual tapering of
its huge B/S (Taper Tantrum) may also rattle the market (risk assets).
Back to home, Indian market may have celebrated initially today
for the lower CPI published yesterday and hopes for a RBI rate cut. But, still
there are several concerns for RBI to change its neutral stance abruptly as
core CPI may be sticky at 4.70% and Fed is still sounding quite hawkish. As a
result of a hawkish Fed, almost all the major central bankers are now also
adopting the neutral monetary policy path from their past accommodative stance
in order to keep the interest rate/bond yield differential at the present
level.
Domestic market today reacted negatively for the GST disruptions
probability as Govt/FM confirmed once again the 1st July as roll out
day for the same denying any possibility of a month delay (Sep) as being
reported in some media. Market may be apprehending that due to GST disruptions,
de-stocking for input tax credit issues etc, earnings of corporate India may be
affected for Q1 & Q2FY18.
Market sentiment today may be also suffered due to Govt’s decision
to cancel telecom spectrum auction for 2017 owing to huge financial stress
& leveraged B/S of the sector. This may deprive the Govt for revenue of
around Rs.15000 cr for FY-18; it’s very clear that neither the telecom
companies nor the banks are now in a position to fund the telecom spectrum
auction. Also, a separate report showed that subsidy for the Food, Fertilizer
& Fuel has surged significantly in April’17, which may constrain the Govt
finance in the months ahead amid concern for GST disruptions & 7-CPC arrears.
Govt has also expressed grave concern for the telecom NPA/NPL
and has called all the PSBS/Pvt banks having significant exposure to the sector
(for resolution of the telecom loans). In one of those meeting, FM has reportedly
expressed his concern over telecom stress & overall NPA divergence issue
with RBI & different Private Banks; ICICI may be one of them; although the
Bank has denied this speculation after the market hours today.
The ongoing issues of farm loan waiver and consequent adverse
effect on credit discipline may be also affecting the general market sentiment,
especially for the banks & MFIS.
Nifty was today supported by HDFC twins, which alone contributed
around 11 points; HDFC & other housing finance companies, such as LICHSGFIN
were in the lime light for the last few days after RBI announced lower PCR (provisioning)
against some category of the housing loans; BOB, Lupin, Powergrid, ITC, NTPC
ACC & Yes Bank also helped the market to some extent.
But Nifty was dragged today by WIPRO, HCLTECH, TCS, INFY,
TATAMOTORS, INDUSIND, ICICI & AXIS BANK. Private banks were in pressure
today after RBI has asked all the banks to disclose any divergence in NPA
reporting, if it’s above 15%; although, PSBS are reporting NPA more or less as
par RBI audit/observation, market may be concerned that Private banks may be
hiding NPA in different forms and more prone to RBI divergence issue. Banks may
be also affected for GST disruption issues in the present complex formats and
dual GST.
Analytical Charts:
SGX-NF
BNF
Article courtesy
For advisory support:
https://t.me/MarketLive_free
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