Nifty May Open In Green Tracking Positive Global Cues & China MLF Injection; Indian Market May React To Confirmed GST Implementation From 1st July & High Probable Disruptions And Skymet’s Forecast Of A Slightly Subdued Monsoon (?)

Market Mantra: 19/06/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9625 (+35 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 9580-9530/9505

Key resistance for NF: 9655/9675-9715

Key support for BNF: 23300/23200-23000

Key resistance for BNF: 23500-23650

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9675 area for further rally towards 9715-9770 & 9825-9865 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On flip side, sustaining below 9655 area, NF may fall towards 9599/9580-9530/9505 & 9470-9405 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23650 area for further rally towards 23750-23875 & 24000-24100 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 23600-23500 area, BNF may fall towards 23300/23200-23000 & 22900-22700 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (June) may open around 9625 following positive global/Asian cues after some China MLF (liquidity injection in the money market) and weakness in JPY following below expected Japan trade data; USDJPY is in upbeat mood (risk on trade). Also, positive China home prices data may be supporting the positive global sentiment & metals.

Overnight, on Friday US market closed almost flat in slight positive territory supported by energy shares (some rebound in oil); but dragged by consumption/retail stocks, following deflation concern after Amazon acquired a US grocery giant (Whole Foods); also Friday’s US economic data was tepid. But some dovish comments by Fed’s Kaplan undermining further rate hikes by Fed amid tepid inflation may be also indicating some divergence of views in Fed & with Yellen. A dovish Fed may be good for easy money & risk/EM trade, although it’s too early now and market will focus on host of 6 FOMC speakers this week for their views.

Back to home, Indian market may focus on GST implementation from 31^st July as FM yesterday confirmed the same citing no luxury of time for any further delays; although it is in expected lines, market may be also concerned about short term GST disruptions under the present complex form and overall compliance costs may be also huge. But, relaxation of return filling and E-Way bill may support the market sentiment to some extent; although various states has expressed apprehension for revenue due to delay in return filling.

SGX-NF