Market Mantra: 07/06/2017
(08:30)
SGX-NF: 9675 (+9
points)
For the Day:
Key support for NF: 9660/9640-9599/9570
Key resistance for NF:
9715-9750
Key support for BNF:
23350-23150
Key resistance for
BNF: 23450-23550
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (June) may open around
9575, almost flat following mixed global cues and some risk aversion ahead of
UK election, ECB meet & Comey’s testimony. Overnight, US market closed
slightly lower (-0.23%) amid risk aversion and fall in USD/US bond yields.
Apart from various geo-political risks (UK election, Comey’s testimony, alleged
Russian involvement in US election/ with Trump camp, GCC-Qatar diplomatic
crisis), Fed’s high probable dovish hike stance next week, US bond yields were
also under pressure die to some reports that China is active in buying/planning
to buy more USTSY bonds after its recent selling Feb-March.
But USD/US bond yields recovered slightly towards the closing
NYT/US session after another ABC news report that Comey will make White House
uncomfortable but will stop short of saying President interfered in the FBI
investigation. S&P also reconfirmed US rating yesterday and that may have
also supported the USD to some extent, Yesterday’s US JOLTS jobs report was
also upbeat and being one of the favourite job indicator of Fed, market may be
also assuming that Fed may have no issue to hike next week; but underlying tone
may be more important (hawkish/dovish).
Back to home, all eyes may be on Patel/MPC stance for any change
to accommodative stance from present neutral as there is no reason for any rate
cut today; but considering overall positive Govt/RBI stance regarding effect of
DeMo on the country’s GDP, RBI may downplay the sudden fall in Q4 GDP as a transitory
effect and may wait to see the actual GDP trend in Q1FY18 before considering
any policy stance change. In that scenario, market may be disappointed.
Hints for actionable trading ideas:
Time & Price
action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9750 area for further
rally towards 9825-9865 & 9930-10050 in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On flip side, sustaining
below 9730-9715 area, NF may fall towards 9640-9570 & 9530-9470 area in the
short term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to
sustain over 23550 area for further rally towards 23650-23875 & 24000-24100
area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 23500-23450 area, BNF may fall towards 23350-23150 &
23050-22950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
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