Wednesday, 7 June 2017

Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues And Hopes For A Dovish RBI & Better Prospect Of Monsoon Ahead Of Trio Of Global Events Tomorrow (UK Election/ECB Meet/Comey’s Testimony); All Eyes Of Dalal Street May Be On The Mint Street Today



Market Mantra: 07/06/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9675 (+9 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 9660/9640-9599/9570

Key resistance for NF: 9715-9750

Key support for BNF: 23350-23150

Key resistance for BNF: 23450-23550


As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (June) may open around 9575, almost flat following mixed global cues and some risk aversion ahead of UK election, ECB meet & Comey’s testimony. Overnight, US market closed slightly lower (-0.23%) amid risk aversion and fall in USD/US bond yields. Apart from various geo-political risks (UK election, Comey’s testimony, alleged Russian involvement in US election/ with Trump camp, GCC-Qatar diplomatic crisis), Fed’s high probable dovish hike stance next week, US bond yields were also under pressure die to some reports that China is active in buying/planning to buy more USTSY bonds after its recent selling Feb-March.

But USD/US bond yields recovered slightly towards the closing NYT/US session after another ABC news report that Comey will make White House uncomfortable but will stop short of saying President interfered in the FBI investigation. S&P also reconfirmed US rating yesterday and that may have also supported the USD to some extent, Yesterday’s US JOLTS jobs report was also upbeat and being one of the favourite job indicator of Fed, market may be also assuming that Fed may have no issue to hike next week; but underlying tone may be more important (hawkish/dovish).

Back to home, all eyes may be on Patel/MPC stance for any change to accommodative stance from present neutral as there is no reason for any rate cut today; but considering overall positive Govt/RBI stance regarding effect of DeMo on the country’s GDP, RBI may downplay the sudden fall in Q4 GDP as a transitory effect and may wait to see the actual GDP trend in Q1FY18 before considering any policy stance change. In that scenario, market may be disappointed.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9750 area for further rally towards 9825-9865 & 9930-10050 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).


On flip side, sustaining below 9730-9715 area, NF may fall towards 9640-9570 & 9530-9470 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23550 area for further rally towards 23650-23875 & 24000-24100 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 23500-23450 area, BNF may fall towards 23350-23150 & 23050-22950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



 SGX-NF

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