Indian Market May Cheer Less Hawkish RBI Initially; But Next Move (Rate Cut) Of RBI May Be Extremely Data Dependent & May Not Happen In Aug’17
Market Mantra: 08/06/2017 (08:30)
SGX-NF: 9700 (+15 points)
For the Day:
Key support for NF: 9660/9630-9590/9570
Key resistance for NF: 9715-9750
Key support for BNF: 23700-23875
Key resistance for BNF: 23400-23200
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jun) may open around 9700 following mixed global cues ahead of ECB, UK election and Comey’s actual testimony. Overnight US market closed in positive (+0.18%) after Comey’s prepared statement showed less damaging revelations, which market does not know. But energy related shares were under pressure after surprised US inventory buildup and some concern over viability of OPEX-NOPEC agreement over the current fragile Middle East (GCC-Qatar/Iran) geo-political tensions & diplomatic battles. Ahead of ECB today, there was also some leakages about possible Draghi statement highlighting pessimistic inflation first and then optimistic growth in EZ, which also resulted a significant volatility in the EURUSD & the overall market. But, eventually, USD is now getting some strength as market cheered Comey’s initial prepared statement.
In the morning, Japan GDP flashed a little subdued, pushing Yen lower; Japan is trading slightly lower; but upbeat trade balance data from China is now supporting the China/HSI market and metals to some extent.
Back to home, market may initially cheer a less hawkish RBI today and housing finance companies may be in demand today.
Hints for actionable trading ideas:
Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9750 area for further rally towards 9825-9865 & 9930-10050 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On flip side, sustaining below 9730-9715 area, NF may fall towards 9630-9570 & 9530-9470 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23700 area for further rally towards 23875-24000 & 24100-24150 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 23650 area, BNF may fall towards 23400-23200 & 23050-22900 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).