Nifty May Open Almost Flat Tracking Mixed Global Cues Amid Fed Puzzling, AU Banks Downgrade & Fitch’s Forecast Of Subdued China Growth Ahead Of China’s MSCI Inclusion (?); Domestically All Eyes May Be On The Govt’s NPA Crackdown & GST; IMD’s Optimistic Projection Of Monsoon Progress May Also Help

Market Mantra: 20/06/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9675 (-1 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 9655/9620-9590

Key resistance for NF: 9725-9775

Key support for BNF: 23650-23500/23400

Key resistance for BNF: 23875-24000

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9725 area for further rally towards 9775-9825 & 9865-9950/10050 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On flip side, sustaining below 9705 area, NF may fall towards 9655/9620-9590/9560 & 9530/9505-9470 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23875 area for further rally towards 24000-24115 & 24250-24435 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 23825-23750 area, BNF may fall towards 23650-23500 & 23400-23250 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (June) may open around 9675, almost flat following mixed global cues. Overnight US market/DJ-30 closed in positive (+0.68%) amid rebound of tech shares and some unexpected hawkish comments from Fed’s Dudley, advocating for another hike in Dec’17 brushing aside subdued US inflation. But, in the morning today, stance of another influential FOMC member Evans was quite dovish and opposite to Dudley/Yellen. Amid all these puzzling comments by different FOMC members, market may be also confused about Fed’s rate hike trajectory in 2017; but FFR is showing below 50% rate hike probability of a Dec’17 hike; i.e. market may not be emphasizing too much weight on Fed’s ongoing drama (jawboning) and may focus more on incoming US economic data & trajectory of Trumponomics apart from US political jitters.

Back to home, Indian market may continue its focus on IBC/NPA resolution progress and actual result and also on the GST implementation & probable disruption issues despite some exceptions being provided by the Govt. Also, Punjab Govt’s yesterday action of farm loan waiver & other populist measures may affect the overall market (banks/NBFC) sentiment as it can affect credit discipline of the system.

 SGX-NF