Thursday 25 January 2018

Nifty Edged Down On Mixed Global Cues & PSBS Recaps Optimism



Market Wrap: 24/01/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Jan):11082 (-3; -0.03%) 

(NS: 11086; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 391 TTM Q2FY18 PE: 28.35; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):27445 (+59; +0.22%) 

(BNS: 27399; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 867; TTM Q2FY18 PE: 31.60; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 25/01/2018: Jan-Fut/spot

Key support for NF: 11075/11030-10975/10935

Key resistance for NF: 11135/11175-11215/11260

Key support for BNF: 27300/27050-26800/26600

Key resistance for BNF: 27600/27825-28075/28405

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 11135 area for further rally towards 11175-11215 & 11260-11315 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11115 area, NF may fall towards 11075/11030-10975/10935 & 10890-10825 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 27600 area for further rally towards 27750-27825 & 28075-28405 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27550-27450 area, BNF may fall towards 27300-27050 & 26800-26600 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (24th Jan) closed around 11082, almost unchanged after making an opening session low of 11043 and late hours high of 11115 and made another record high in Nifty spot at 11110 in line with global euphoria & Davos optimism. But broad based selling in mid/small caps for MF portfolio restructuring may have also affected the overall market sentiment coupled with extremely stretched valuation and thus we have a range bound day in most of the trading session.

In the last hour, reports of PSBS recaps roadmaps by the government (announced after market hours) has boosted the public sector banks (PSBS); pharma & techs was also in upbeat mood today on renewed optimism about the sector & some bargain hunting as defensive bets (market at record high).

Indian market today opened almost flat on mixed global cues and lower USD amid looming trade wars between US & China, bad for export heavy Asian as well as EU market and soon it gained some momentum on PSBS, pharma & techs; PSBS were upbeat on hopes of a speedy resolution of corporate NPA & recaps.

Apart from ongoing Davos optimism, overall sentiment was further supported by positive commentary from Moody’s: “Sees India’s FY18 Fiscal Deficit at 3.5% Of GDP; Believe India's Commitment To Fiscal Consolidation Remains & will Take Time For Impact Of India Govt Reforms To Be Seen; Sees India GDP Growing By 6.7% In FY18, 7.5% In FY19”.

Moody’s: “India's Growth Potential Much Higher Than Baa-Rated Peers; Expect India's External Vulnerable To Remain Low; GST Rollout Disruption To Fade Over Next Few Quarters”.

Govt has announced partial recaps for the PSBS:

After market hours, government (Govt) announced recaps roadmaps for the PSBS at around 0.88 tln through a special recap bonds in a mix of non-PCA & PCA PSBS with various caveats as expected; the aim is to basically bail out the weak PSBS first with partial recaps and skewed towards meeting regulatory requirement.

Govt: In Oct 2017, had announced recapitalization plan for PSU banks to the extent of Rs 2.1 tln. Recapitalization will be spread over FY18 & FY19; already moved supplement grant in parliament for FY18 infusion; Govt has the prime responsibility of keeping the PSU banks in good health; Inherited a major problem; had been involved in finding solutions to the problem; recap will ensure no state-run bank will fail.

Govt: Have to create an institutional mechanism to make sure past is not repeated. Various steps to be taken to ensure that governance of banks follow the highest standard; Govt has prepared a plan for this; Induction of Capital & the Basis Of Infusion Is The 1st Exercise. Govt Has Prepared a Plan for Governance for PSU Banks; the economy has gained traction in terms of economic growth, higher rating, and credit offtake. Govt promised to give capital on the basis of performance, merit.

Govt: Depositors' money in PSBs is safe; no PSB will fail; Regulatory capital of all PSBs is being maintained by Govt.

Govt: No easy money; Recap dependent on Performance & Reforms; EASE-Enhanced Access & Service Excellence. Repositioning PSBs- banks being given capital based on:-1.Customer responsiveness 2.Responsible banking; 3.Credit offtake through technology & cleanliness 4.MSME friendly banks 5. Financial  inclusion 6.Digitisation deepening.

Govt: proposed that every banks shall have min 10% exposure in a consortium borrower. All loans above Rs 250 cr will undergo special monitoring; breach of any loan covenant will be shared with entire lending consortium as a red flag.

Govt: App developed to map Business Correspondents , PSBs in every area. Every PSB to promote apps for easy opening of accounts, doorstep banking.

Govt: All banks should not get into all activities, must concentrate on core strengths. Each bank to adopt a policy in accordance with their core strengths. PSU banks need to identify non-core assets to monetize.

Govt: Bank Not On Corrective Plan (NON-PCA) Getting Funds Mainly To Aid Growth; Banks On Corrective Plan (PCA) Getting Funds To Meet Regulatory Needs.

As par report: Post capital infusion, the Tier-I ratios of 20 PSU banks will be higher than 9%. UCO Bank, IDBI Bank and Bank of Maharashtra will benefit the the most with the biggest increase in their Tier-I ratios.

Govt: Recap Amount to Strengthen PSBs, Enhance Lending Capacity. Timing Of PSB Recap Could Not Have Been Better. Bank To Turnaround In FY19; Strategies Have Started Yielding Results.

Govt: No Proposal To Hike FDI In Banking; Bank Recap Will Increase Banks' Capacity To Lend By Rs 5 tln. Independent Agencies to Evaluate, Rank PSU Banks Annually On Reforms.

Govt: PCA Banks Gets Rs 0.53 tln; IDBI Bank Gets Highest Fund Infusion. Rs 0.88 tln; For 20 PSU Bank Recap. Govt Of India Infuses $13.84 Bn In 20 PSU Banks. Bank Recap Bonds Will Be Non-Tradable. PSU Bank Recap Bonds to Be Issued In 6 Slots.

Govt: Frontloading Bank Recap This FY; Bank Recap to Be Worth More Than Rs 1.00 tln This FY; PSBs Need to Give Out Loans Responsibly so as to Maintain Low NPAs.

SBI: Recap Amount For SBI More Or Less On Expected Lines. Adequately Capitalized Currently, Recap Amount To Enchance Cap Further. Rs 8,800 Cr Recap Amount To Enhance Capital Base By 40 bps. PSU Bank Recap a Reiteration Of Govt's Commitment Towards PSBs.

Govt: Economy Has Gained Traction In Terms Of Credit Offtake, Corporate Earnings. Cleaning Up Of PSU Banks' Book Led To Revised Ratings, Higher Credit Offtake. Recap Based On Performance and Potential Of Each Bank.

Thus, Govt want PSBS to start corporate lending in a big way to support private capex with an eye on quality & qualified corporate borrowers; but considering the ongoing stress for most of the corporate groups and certain other structural issues, that may be very difficult at this point of time.

Today Nifty was supported mostly by SBI, HDFC, TCS, ITC, Adani Ports, Bajaj Fin, Infy, HDFC Bank, HCL Tech & Yes Bank by around 60 points altogether (top ten contributors).

Nifty was dragged by ICICI Bank, RIL, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Eicher Motors, VEDL, M&M, Tata Steel and L&T by around 66 points cumulatively (top ten draggers).

Overall, today Indian market was helped by PSBS, mixed private banks, financials, FMCG, techs, pharma, while dragged by automakers, media, metals, reality, energies, infra & consumer staples.








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