Tuesday, 23 January 2018

Nifty Jumped On Hopes Of Fiscal Prudence & Govt’s Thrust On Reform Rather Than Populism

Market Wrap: 22/01/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Jan):10964 (+63; +0.58%) 

(NS: 10966; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 391 TTM Q2FY18 PE: 28.05; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):26988 (+92; +0.34%) 

(BNS: 27041; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 867; TTM Q2FY18 PE: 31.19; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 23/01/2018: Jan-Fut

Key support for NF: 10975/10955-10900/10790

Key resistance for NF: 11035/11075-11125/11175

Key support for BNF: 26800/26600-26400/26150

Key resistance for BNF: 27050/27250-27500/27650

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 11075 area for further rally towards 11125-11175 & 11215-11315 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11055-11035 area, NF may fall towards 10975/10955-10900 & 10835-10790 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 27100 area for further rally towards 27150-27250 & 27500-27650 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27050 area, BNF may fall towards 26800-26600 & 26400-26150 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (22nd Jan) closed around 10964, jumped by almost 63 points (+0.58%) after making opening session low of 10883 & closing minutes high of 10982 on earnings optimism and hopes of fiscal discipline after mega disinvestment success (ONGC-HPCL deal) and comments by the Prime Minister that forthcoming budget will be not a populist one; Government will be on reform path.

Davos Optimism Also Helped:

Nifty spot made another record high of 10975.10 and closed at 10966.20 amid huge marketing blitz in Davos WEF (world economic forum) by the government to project Indian growth prospect despite some rating setbacks.

Market is now expecting that government will not breach the fiscal deficit target of 3.2% in FY-18 after more than expected collection from disinvestment proceeds & an upbeat direct tax collection despite some setbacks in GST (indirect tax) collection. Indian bond yield dropped, which helped the banks & the overall market sentiment.

Indian market today opened almost flat following mixed global cues after weekend US shut down fiasco, but rebounded soon on hopes of a market friendly non-populist budget with favorable treatment for the LTCGT (long term capital gain tax), like only change of definition from present one to two year and not three year earlier assumed.

Market sentiment was also boosted by reports of hiking equity exposure by NPS (national pension scheme) on expected increase in PFRDA AUM by 40-45% in FY-18. Overall, market is very optimistic about Indian growth story & earnings recovery after some surprise from some leading blue-chips, although rising oil & huge banking NPA may be a major concern.

Today’s Axis bank report card although shows improvement in slippages & corporate NPA/NPL, retail NPA has surged, which may be another headwinds for the Indian banks in the coming days as household balance sheet may be also stressed & highly leveraged.

IMF boost for Indian growth story:

After market hours, India got more boost from IMF for its upbeat GDP projections for 2018 at 7.4% vs China’s 6.6%.

IMF World Economic Outlook- India’s growth forecasts maintained at 6.7% for 2017, 7.4% for 2018 and 7.8% for 2019.Growth expected to moderate gradually in China, pick up in India, & remain broadly stable in ASEAN-5 region. Global growth for 2017 estimated at 3.7%, 0.1% higher than earlier estimate; global growth forecasts for 2018 & 2019 revised upward by 0.2% to 3.9%.

IMF: Raise 2018 US growth to 2.7% vs 2.3% in Oct; Half of global growth bump stems from US tax reform; Raises 2018 China growth to 6.6% vs 6.5% prior; Warns a financial market correction could dampen global growth; Maintains growth forecast for emerging and developing markets; Sees US growth slowing from 2022 as tax impact begins to wane.

Today Nifty was boosted mostly by RIL (upbeat report card & surprised profit from R-Jio after IUC cut by TRAI), TCS, Axis Bank (improvement in asset quality), L&T, HDFC Bank (analyst optimism after upbeat earnings), IBULLS-HSG, ONGC (higher oil & HPCL deal), Yes Bank, Kotak Bank & Infy by almost 108 points altogether.

Nifty was dragged mostly by HDFC, HPCL (ONGC acquisition price of 473.97 is less than market estimate), VEDL, IOC, ICICI Bank, Wipro (muted report card), SBI, Eicher Motors, Bharti Airtel & ITC (slump in core business-cigarette) by around 45 points cumulatively.

Overall, today Indian market was boosted by selected private banks (earnings optimism), mixed auto makers, financials, mixed FMCG, selected techs, media, pharma, reality (affordable housing theme), energies (RIL), while dragged by metals, OMCS (higher oil), telecoms (R-Jio disruption), PSBS (incremental increase in NPA to Rs.9.5 tln by FY-18 from Rs.8 tln in FY-17, while NPL may be around Rs.11.5 tln by FY-18-study by industry body Assocham-Crisil)




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