Thursday, 11 January 2018

Nifty May Consolidate On Muted Global Cues & Mixed Report Card From Indusind Bank

Market Mantra: 11/01/2018 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10630 (-5)

For the Day: updated: 14:30

For 11/01/2018: Jan-Fut

Key support for NF: 10615/10560-10500/10415

Key resistance for NF: 10675/10700-10775/10815

Key support for BNF: 25600/25475-25325/25200

Key resistance for BNF: 25775/25875-26000/26200

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10700 area for further rally towards 10750/10775- 10815/10860 & 10955-11095 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10675-10655 area, NF may fall towards 10615/10560-10500/10415 & 10350-10200 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25875 area for further rally towards 26000/26100-262000/26250 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25825-25775 area, BNF may fall towards 25600/25475-25325/25200 & 25000-24850 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) is now trading around 10660, edged up by almost 0.25% on mixed global cues and earnings optimism, higher oil, fiscal worries, concern for populist budget and imposition of long term capital gain tax (LTCGT) directly or indirectly.

Meanwhile, Indian 10YGSEC bond yield again soared to 7.453% at fresh 52 weeks high and eyeing 7.50% on concern for fiscal slippages, economic stagflation & hawkish RBI in the coming days. USDINR-I is also trading higher at around 63.81 (+0.12%) on global recovery in USD after China denial of yesterday’s reduced UST buying news. 

A dual combination of higher USD & higher oil may not be good for Indian macro and rating agencies may also review their stance on India, if Brent oil sustains above $70.

Meanwhile, report card from Indusind Bank (IIB) may be termed as mixed; although PAT came in line, NIM is below estimate & NPA is also elevated slightly. Being an “ever green” performer & a new generation bank, IIB does not have so much corporate stressed assets like ICICI/AXIS Bank, but a mixed result from such blue chip private bank may be disappointing considering its steep valuation and overall stretched valuation of the market.

In any way, whatever be the narrative, IIB now has to sustain above 1765-1800 zone for any fresh rally; otherwise it will come down and sustaining below 1690-1670, it may correct.




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