Market Wrap: 08/01/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Jan):10626 (+53; +0.50%)
(TTM PE: 27.17; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391;
NS: 10624; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):25720 (+84; +0.33%)
(TTM PE: 29.61; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
867; BNS: 25676; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 09/01/2018: Jan-Fut
Key support for NF: 10590/10540-10480/10415
Key resistance for NF:
10700/10775-10815/10860
Key support for BNF: 25675/25500-25300/25200
Key resistance for BNF:
25800/25900-26100/26250
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10700 area for further
rally towards 10750/10775- 10815/10860 & 10955-11095 zone in the short term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10675 area, NF may fall towards 10590/10540-10480/10415
& 10350-10200 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25900 area for further
rally towards 26100-26250 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25850-25800 area, BNF may fall towards 25500-25300/25200
& 25000-24800 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (8th Jan) closed around 10626, jumped by 53 points (+0.50%)
on positive global cues & Goldilocks euphoria coupled with an upbeat GDP
forecast by CSO for H2FY18 at 7% despite overall FY-18 GDP may come lower
around 6.5% amid lingering disruption out of DeMo & GST and certain other
structural issues.
But, as CSO estimate of FY-18 GDP was largely in
line with market expectations and being overly conservative as par some
analysis, overall reaction for the GDP estimate was muted yesterday.
Overall trading range is very choppy today after
initial gap up opening around 10623 (+45 points) on positive global/Asian cues; it
made an opening session low of 10604 & late day high of 10640; positive
bank credit & surging FX reserve data released on Friday may have also
boosted the Indian market sentiment today.
Nifty (Spot) scaled another record
high of 10631 and finished around 10624, also at a new closing high on hopes of
earnings & GDP recovery, upcoming budget & rural capex optimism.
All focus may be now on earnings recovery &
justification of stretched valuation as corporate India is entering its Q3FY18
result season. Indian bank loan growth for Dec came as 10.7% vs 9.8%-prior; FX reserve
printed at 409.37 bln vs 404.92 bln-prior.
But Indian bond market was muted about overall
economic optimism amid lingering concern for fiscal deficit breach; it’s now
hovering around 7.32% vs 7.29% on Friday after RBI’s green signal for
additional dividend, which may help prune fiscal deficit by around Rs.0.13 tln.
Today Nifty was supported mostly by Infy (analyst
upgrade ahead of earnings), L&T (analyst upgrade & fresh 3 EPC order),
HDFC, ITC, IOC, RIL, TCS, Bajaj Fin, Sun Pharma (US-FDA optimism about its
controversial Halol plant) & IBULLS-HSG by around 46 points altogether.
Nifty was dragged mostly by Bharti Airtel (intense
tariff war), HDFC Bank, ONGC (flat oil after recent surge), SBI, Adani Ports,
Power Grid, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, Eicher Motors & Bajaj Auto by around
11 points cumulatively.
Overall, today Indian market was helped by
selected private banks & financials, FMCG (hopes of rural recovery), Techs
(rebound of USD from multi-months low & earnings optimism), media, mixed
metals (AU can cut iron ore prices by 20% for muted China demand), Pharma
(renewed US-FDA optimism), reality & energies, while dragged by PSBS, mixed
private banks, telecoms & selected auto makers.
Looking ahead, increasing chorus of global QT (quantitative
tightening), overshooting of inflation expectations & various geo-political
jitters may be some of the global headwinds for the Indian market. As par
reports, BOJ may be on the gradual QQE tapering path in line with Fed &
ECB.
SGX-NF
BNF
WTI
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