Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Nifty Jumped & Closed At Another Record High Mirroring Similar Global Trend & Better GDP Forecast For H2FY18

Market Wrap: 08/01/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Jan):10626 (+53; +0.50%) 

(TTM PE: 27.17; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391; NS: 10624; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):25720 (+84; +0.33%) 

(TTM PE: 29.61; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 867; BNS: 25676; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 09/01/2018: Jan-Fut

Key support for NF: 10590/10540-10480/10415

Key resistance for NF: 10700/10775-10815/10860

Key support for BNF: 25675/25500-25300/25200

Key resistance for BNF: 25800/25900-26100/26250

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10700 area for further rally towards 10750/10775- 10815/10860 & 10955-11095 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10675 area, NF may fall towards 10590/10540-10480/10415 & 10350-10200 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25900 area for further rally towards 26100-26250 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25850-25800 area, BNF may fall towards 25500-25300/25200 & 25000-24800 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (8th Jan) closed around 10626, jumped by 53 points (+0.50%) on positive global cues & Goldilocks euphoria coupled with an upbeat GDP forecast by CSO for H2FY18 at 7% despite overall FY-18 GDP may come lower around 6.5% amid lingering disruption out of DeMo & GST and certain other structural issues. 

But, as CSO estimate of FY-18 GDP was largely in line with market expectations and being overly conservative as par some analysis, overall reaction for the GDP estimate was muted yesterday.

Overall trading range is very choppy today after initial gap up opening around 10623 (+45 points) on positive global/Asian cues; it made an opening session low of 10604 & late day high of 10640; positive bank credit & surging FX reserve data released on Friday may have also boosted the Indian market sentiment today. 

Nifty (Spot) scaled another record high of 10631 and finished around 10624, also at a new closing high on hopes of earnings & GDP recovery, upcoming budget & rural capex optimism.

All focus may be now on earnings recovery & justification of stretched valuation as corporate India is entering its Q3FY18 result season. Indian bank loan growth for Dec came as 10.7% vs 9.8%-prior; FX reserve printed at 409.37 bln vs 404.92 bln-prior.

But Indian bond market was muted about overall economic optimism amid lingering concern for fiscal deficit breach; it’s now hovering around 7.32% vs 7.29% on Friday after RBI’s green signal for additional dividend, which may help prune fiscal deficit by around Rs.0.13 tln.

Today Nifty was supported mostly by Infy (analyst upgrade ahead of earnings), L&T (analyst upgrade & fresh 3 EPC order), HDFC, ITC, IOC, RIL, TCS, Bajaj Fin, Sun Pharma (US-FDA optimism about its controversial Halol plant) & IBULLS-HSG by around 46 points altogether.

Nifty was dragged mostly by Bharti Airtel (intense tariff war), HDFC Bank, ONGC (flat oil after recent surge), SBI, Adani Ports, Power Grid, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, Eicher Motors & Bajaj Auto by around 11 points cumulatively.

Overall, today Indian market was helped by selected private banks & financials, FMCG (hopes of rural recovery), Techs (rebound of USD from multi-months low & earnings optimism), media, mixed metals (AU can cut iron ore prices by 20% for muted China demand), Pharma (renewed US-FDA optimism), reality & energies, while dragged by PSBS, mixed private banks, telecoms & selected auto makers.

Looking ahead, increasing chorus of global QT (quantitative tightening), overshooting of inflation expectations & various geo-political jitters may be some of the global headwinds for the Indian market. As par reports, BOJ may be on the gradual QQE tapering path in line with Fed & ECB.




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