Market Wrap: 03/01/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Jan):10472 (-0.20; -0.00%)
(TTM PE: 26.71; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391;
NS: 10443; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):25386 (-8; -0.03%)
(TTM PE: 29.20; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
867; BNS: 25318; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 04/01/2018: Jan-Fut
Key support for NF: 10470/10430-10390/10350
Key resistance for NF:
10555/10575-10610/10650
Key support for BNF: 25300/25200-25000/24800
Key resistance for BNF: 25550/25600-25800/25900
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10575 area for further
rally towards 10610/10650-10695 & 10745-10795 zone in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10555-10515 area, NF may fall towards
10470/10430-10390/10350 & 10300/10265-10200/10180 zone in the short term
(under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25600 area for further
rally towards 25800/25900- 26100/26200 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25550 area, BNF may fall towards 25300/25200-25000
& 24800-24525 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (3rd Jan) closed around 10472, almost unchanged but skids
well off the opening session high of 10543 on domestic worries about fiscal
slippages, higher oil & LTCGT (long term capital gain tax) and some
violence in Mumbai area on caste politics; it made a late session low of 10457.
Parliament proceeding is also being disrupted over this caste issue apart from
normal life & business activities in Mumbai.
Indian market today opened around 10490, edged up
on positive global cues and better MFG PMI data released on Tuesday; EU market
opening session was also supportive as EUR inched lower after some days of
relentless rally, but Indian market was unfazed amid domestic issues ahead of
Q3FY18 earning season from next week. Market may be also concerned about Q3FY18
earnings trajectory amid poor GST numbers in Nov and an overall economic
slowdown for several reasons.
At TTM PE of almost 27, Q3FY18 earnings need to
justify such lofty valuations irrespective of any excuses; otherwise market
bound to correct in the coming days towards its mean valuation of around 20-18.
In early EU trading, retailers rally on upbeat
holiday sales and techs follow overnight gains in US peers while automakers
rebounded from Tuesday’s slump and energy stocks also advanced, however trading
volumes were about 25% lower than the 30-day average as a result of the rollout
of new MiFID-II regulations.
Asian stocks pushed deeper into record territory
driven by renewed EM growth & earnings optimism despite lower USD as Japan
markets remained closed. The MSCI index of APC (EX-Japan) rose 0.4%; miners
supported Australia's ASX 200 (+0.2%), which comes amid Australia’s metals and
mining index hovered at its best level in 5 years following the rise in metal
prices with gold firmly above $1300, alongside the recent rally in zinc (zinc
hit a 10-year high on Tuesday).
Chinese markets initially conformed to the upbeat
tone before Hong Kong shares ebbed lower (Shanghai Comp +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.1%);
China was supported by consumers & transport shares and overall optimism
about an upbeat MFG PMI released on Monday.
Nifty was supported mostly by ICICI Bank, L&T,
Adani Ports, VEDL, RIL (commissioning of new gas cracker), Yes Bank, HUL, HPCL,
Hindalco & Ultratech Cement by around 7 points altogether, while it was
dragged by HDFC Bank, Maruti (disappointing Dec sales), Tata Motors, Infy,
Wipro, ONGC, DRL (fresh EIR from US FDA), Bajaj Auto, Indusind Bank & Bajaj
Fin by almost 8 points cumulatively.
Overall, Indian market was yesterday helped by
metals (China & domestic optimism/infra spending and higher metal prices),
selected private banks, media, reality, infra and consumer staples, while it
was dragged by financials, PSBS, automakers (mixed Dec sales), techs (strong
INR), pharma (renewed US FDA concern & lower USD) and mixed energies/OMC
(higher crude oil & inability to hike prices due to political populism & higher cess on petro products).
SGX-NF
BNF
USDJPY
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