Wednesday, 24 January 2018

Nifty Soared On Davos Optimism & Ongoing Global Goldilocks Rally

Market Wrap: 23/01/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Jan):111085 (+117; +1.07%) 

(NS: 11084; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 391 TTM Q2FY18 PE: 28.35; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):27382 (+366; +1.36%) 

(BNS: 27391; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 867; TTM Q2FY18 PE: 31.59; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 24/01/2018: Jan-Fut

Key support for NF: 11075/11030-10975/10935

Key resistance for NF: 11095/11135-11175/1215

Key support for BNF: 27330/27050-26800/26600

Key resistance for BNF: 27600/27825-28075/28405

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 11095 area for further rally towards 11135-11175 & 11215-11315 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11075 area, NF may fall towards 11030-10975 & 10935-10890/10790  zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 27600 area for further rally towards 27750-27825 & 28075-28405 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27550-27450 area, BNF may fall towards 27330-27050 & 26800-26600 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (23rd Jan) closed around 11085, soared by almost 117 points (+1.07%) after making an opening minutes low of 10988 & closing session high of 11095; Nifty spot made a fresh life time high of 11092 in line with its global peers & further boosted by ongoing Davos optimism about India’s growth story.

Market was also boosted by hopes of fiscal discipline & earnings recovery, stress on reform rather than populism, IMF upgrade of GDP for 2018-19; coupled with ongoing upbeat tone from Davos WEF about India’s economic prospect and optimism about a market friendly budget next week.

Indian 10YGSEC bond yield also slumped by 0.62% to 7.416% and helped the overall market sentiment, specially public sector banks (PSBS), which got further boost on comments from SBI chairman at Davos that they are seeing some green shoots about corporate NPA recovery/resolution as a result of NCLT/IBC action and stressed metal/steel assets are getting huge response from prospective bidders; metals also rallied despite global sell off due to iron ore slump & higher copper inventories at LME.

PSBS & Metals Were Upbeat:

As par reports, banks are expecting a speedy resolution of corporate NPA (5-6 cases) by 30th Sep’18 (Rs. 1 tln) and also some 6-7 cases of RBI 1st list by 30th April.

Indian market today opened almost 46 points gap-up on positive global & Asian cues after US shut down drama ends yesterday and USD edged up; it soon jumped on IMF optimism about India’s growth potential in 2018 (7.4%) coupled with some upbeat Q3 report card and optimism about NAMO’s opening address at Davos; IMF also advised India to focus on reform, specially on financial service sector.

But it seems that mid & small caps are not so much upbeat in the current euphoric rally in large caps; one of the reasons behind such divergence may be new SEBI rule for the MF to restructure overall portfolios, which are heavy with mid/small caps.

Today Nifty was supported mostly by ICICI Bank, VEDL, Infy, SBI, RIL, IOC (bonus issue), ITC, ONGC, Indusind Bank & HDFC by almost 95 points altogether.

Nifty was dragged by HDFC Bank, Eicher Motors, Tata Motors (negative report from JLR front), ZEEL, Wipro, HPCL, TCS, Bharti Infratel, Bosch & Ambuja cements by around 27 points cumulatively.

Overall Indian market was today supported by banks & financials, specially PSBS, mixed auto makers, FMCG, mixed techs, metals, pharma, reality, mixed energies, infra & consumer staples, while dragged by media stocks.

But underlying trend may be quite cautious as valuations are now in bubble zone at Nifty PE of over 28 and Bank Nifty PE of over 31.50 on actual reported EPS basis.




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