Market Wrap: 23/01/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Jan):111085 (+117; +1.07%)
(NS: 11084; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 391 TTM Q2FY18 PE:
28.35; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value:
8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):27382 (+366; +1.36%)
(BNS: 27391; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 867; TTM Q2FY18 PE:
31.59; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value:
19220)
For 24/01/2018: Jan-Fut
Key support for NF: 11075/11030-10975/10935
Key resistance for NF: 11095/11135-11175/1215
Key support for BNF: 27330/27050-26800/26600
Key resistance for BNF: 27600/27825-28075/28405
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 11095 area for further
rally towards 11135-11175 & 11215-11315 zone in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 11075 area, NF may fall towards 11030-10975
& 10935-10890/10790 zone in the
short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 27600 area for further
rally towards 27750-27825 & 28075-28405 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 27550-27450 area, BNF may fall towards 27330-27050
& 26800-26600 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) today (23rd
Jan) closed around 11085, soared by almost 117 points
(+1.07%) after making an opening minutes low of 10988 & closing session
high of 11095; Nifty spot made a fresh life time high of 11092 in line with its
global peers & further boosted by ongoing Davos optimism about India’s
growth story.
Market was also boosted by hopes of fiscal
discipline & earnings recovery, stress on reform rather than populism, IMF
upgrade of GDP for 2018-19; coupled with ongoing upbeat tone from Davos WEF
about India’s economic prospect and optimism about a market friendly budget
next week.
Indian 10YGSEC bond yield also slumped by 0.62% to
7.416% and helped the overall market sentiment, specially public sector banks
(PSBS), which got further boost on comments from SBI chairman at Davos that
they are seeing some green shoots about corporate NPA recovery/resolution as a
result of NCLT/IBC action and stressed metal/steel assets are getting huge
response from prospective bidders; metals also rallied despite global sell off
due to iron ore slump & higher copper inventories at LME.
PSBS & Metals Were Upbeat:
As par reports, banks are expecting a speedy
resolution of corporate NPA (5-6 cases) by 30th Sep’18 (Rs. 1 tln)
and also some 6-7 cases of RBI 1st list by 30th April.
Indian market today opened almost 46 points gap-up
on positive global & Asian cues after US shut down drama ends yesterday and
USD edged up; it soon jumped on IMF optimism about India’s growth potential in
2018 (7.4%) coupled with some upbeat Q3 report card and optimism about NAMO’s
opening address at Davos; IMF also advised India to focus on reform, specially
on financial service sector.
But it seems that mid & small caps are not so
much upbeat in the current euphoric rally in large caps; one of the reasons
behind such divergence may be new SEBI rule for the MF to restructure overall
portfolios, which are heavy with mid/small caps.
Today Nifty was supported mostly by ICICI Bank, VEDL,
Infy, SBI, RIL, IOC (bonus issue), ITC, ONGC, Indusind Bank & HDFC by
almost 95 points altogether.
Nifty was dragged by HDFC Bank, Eicher Motors,
Tata Motors (negative report from JLR front), ZEEL, Wipro, HPCL, TCS, Bharti Infratel,
Bosch & Ambuja cements by around 27 points cumulatively.
Overall Indian market was today supported by banks
& financials, specially PSBS, mixed auto makers, FMCG, mixed techs, metals,
pharma, reality, mixed energies, infra & consumer staples, while dragged by
media stocks.
But underlying trend may be quite cautious as
valuations are now in bubble zone at Nifty PE of over 28 and Bank Nifty PE of
over 31.50 on actual reported EPS basis.
SGX-NF
BNF
SPX-500
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