Market Mantra: 10/01/2018 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10645 (+4)
For the Day: updated: 14:40
For 10/01/2018: Jan-Fut
Key support for NF:
10600/10550-10490/10415
Key resistance for NF:
10675/10700-10775/10815
Key support for BNF:
25600/25450-25300/25200
Key resistance for BNF:
25875/26000-26100/26250
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10700 area for further
rally towards 10750/10775- 10815/10860 & 10955-11095 zone in the short term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10675-10655 area, NF may fall towards
10600/10550-10490/10415 & 10350-10200 zone in the short term (under bear
case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25875 area for further
rally towards 26000/26100-262000/26250 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25825 area, BNF may fall towards
25600/25450-25300/25200 & 25000-24800 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
Indian
market (Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50)
is now trading around 10615, lost by almost 0.39% on muted Asian/EU cues amid
lower USD & higher global bond yields (US/EU/JP) despite positive closing
in overnight US market.
Earlier, Indian 10YGSEC bond yield today soared to
7.44% at multi-month high on concern for fiscal slippages, Surging oil &
stagflation (lower growth & higher inflation); but it then plunged to 7.22%
after confirmed news of FDI ease reforms; thus Nifty-Fut also rebounds from
session low of 10596 so far after making an opening session high of 10648.
USDINR-I is now trading around 63.80, edged down
by almost 0.05% and off the day high of 63.98; so far it made a low of 63.75;
technically, it has major support around 63.45-63.35 zone and has to break
above 64.00-64.25 area for more rally; RBI may have intervened in the bond
market today as it sharply fell by 20 bps within few minutes.
Meanwhile Govt is very hopeful to collect the
remaining Rs.3.25 tln out of targeted direct tax figure of Rs.9.8 tln in Q4FY18
on recovery in TDS defaulters, support of IDS (on DeMo led black money) and
better corporate tax. But overall TAX/GDP ratio may be still muted despite
DeMo.
Govt has also signalled that for PSBS recaps, they
will prioritize large PSU banks as prospect of system-wide credit growth
remains weak on issues of weak twin B/S. Also, PSBS under RBI prompt corrective
action (PCA) may have to shrink in size to stay viable.
Overall, global as well as Indian stock market
rally may be in pressure amid surging bond yields & increasing tune of QT.
SGX-NF
10YUSTSY BOND
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