Market Wrap: 13/03/2017
(18:00)
NSE-NF: 9098 (+140
points; +1.56%)
NSE-BNF: 21132 (+334
points; +1.61%)
Time & Price action suggests that,
Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain over 9155 area for further rally towards 9195-9235
& 9275-9350 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below 9135
zone, NF may fall towards 9075-9035 & 8985-8915 and 8865-8790 area in the
short term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF (LTP: 21132) has to
sustain over 21350 area for further rally towards 21500-21675 & 21855-22050
area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
21300 area, BNF may fall towards 21150-21000 & 20900-20700 zone in the near
term (under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (March) today closed around 9098, almost 1.56% higher after making an
opening minutes high of 9158 and session low of 9078. Although Nifty Spot was
able to scale the life time high marginally and made a top of 9123, Nifty Fut-I
was not able to scale its previous life time high of around 9185 as heavy
selling instantly caused the index to slide soon after the gap up opening
today.
Despite
an unexpected margin of victory by BJP/NAMO in UP and hopes of big bang reforms
by the Govt amid political stability till at least 2019-2024, concerns of
stretched valuations and various geo-political events including an impending
Fed rate hike might caused some long unwinding
(profit booking) and fresh shorts at such record high level of index.
After
today’s Nifty high of 9123, the benchmark index rallied almost 33% from the Feb’16
budget day low of around 6835 and completes the journey of around 2288 points
in almost one year. So, is the index now topping out as almost all the positive
domestic news flow has been discounted by the market and now it’s time for the
Govt to deliver & Nifty to show at least 15-20% CAGR in EPS ?
With
today’s gap up rally, market may have discounted the state election factor, a
politically stable Govt till 2024 and above all more policy reforms &
implementation in an effective way like tax/GST, land & labour, full FDI in
multi brand retail, resolution of huge banking NPL, resumption of private capex
& consumption (demand) and an effective resolution of India’s huge
under/un-employment problem. The list is long with high expectations of the
market and the Govt has to deliver fast as it can’t take the excuse of “opposition
hurdles” further as the “opposition” is almost wiped out for now.
It’s
true that BJP may not be able to garner the much elusive RS majority before
2019 despite emphatic victory in UP and some other states, opposition political
parties also may not block any reform bill including GST in RS for the sake of “only
opposition” as they may not want to be portrayed as a “disrupter” of economic
reform and the onus is now on the Govt to fasten the economic reform process by
some big bang measures. In fact, over the years, INC also supported the Govt indirectly
or directly in passage of various reform bills including IRDA/Insurance and
amendment of GST also.
All
eyes will be now on 16th March for Q4FY17 advance tax numbers &
GST council meet to see the actual progress of GST on the ground and
implementation of the same by Jul-Sep’17. But as usual, just before any
Parliament session for passage of final GST bill, there is always some
political drama or some “surgical strike” employed both by the main national
political parties (BJP & INC) and this time too it may be the Goa &
Manipur state legislative issues of “horse trading” and INC may not be in a
mood to allow the Parliament to function either. Thus, the onus may be now on
the Govt/BJP to create an amicable political atmosphere in the Parliament to
pass the final GST bill and implement the same from July-Sep’17 without any
other excuses, if it really wants the GST to be implemented before 2019
election.
Contrary
to earlier narratives, DeMo has been proved as a “Political Masterstroke”
rather than a “Political Suicide” for NAMO and the gamble is paid off quite
amazingly by its rich electoral dividend. Also, BJP’s cadre based systematic
& professional organization has helped a lot in UP.
But,
rather than some big bang reform, BJP Govt may focus on the ongoing incremental
reform (slow) and more on social/political agenda in the coming days as RSS is
itself against any big bang reform. GST may be also delayed by the Govt as
small traders are not prepared for it as of now.
After
DeMo, Indian market is witnessing more domestic fund flows, especially in the
MF SIP segment, which is driving the market primarily. It may be due to flows
of earlier “black money” kept with the informal system to the banking/formal
system now and that is being channelized into various financial assets class
including EQ. The onus is now with the Govt, how to treat such “investment” out
of DeMo or “black money” in its logical conclusion of the “war against
corruption/unaccounted money”.
Now,
all may depend upon the Govt’s war or future stance in continuation against the
“black money”. As Jefferies is pointing out that “what can be good socially,
ethically, morally, may not be good for the market and the party may be soon over”,
DeMo is certainly a transient issue and people will soon forget that; but the “war
against black money” & its adverse effect on the discretionary consumption,
private investments may be persistent, although the Govt may not bother that
and is willing to sacrifice something for a cleaner system. Capital market
taxation & P-Note reform may be the next big bang step by the Govt in its “war
against black money”.
India
today flashed its inflation (YOY) as:
WPI
(Fed): 6.55% (estimate: 5.90%; prior: 5.25%)
CPI
(Feb): 3.65% (estimate: 3.58%; prior: 3.17%)
The
upward trajectory of WPI & CPI and also the core CPI may keep RBI in an
extended period of “neutral mode”; there may not be any rate cut in FY-18 and
considering the recent hike in food prices, RBI may be quite hawkish in the
days ahead.
Globally,
all eyes will be now on the Fed tomorrow and the market is expecting a 0.25%
rate hike along with more hawkish dot plots & statements by Yellen (3-4
hikes by Fed in 2017!!). Fed may be right in its jawboning about multiple rate
hikes in US, considering the economics; but in reality, politics may overshadow
economics this time as Trump is himself against a stronger USD contrary to his
earlier election rhetoric.
Thus,
Fed may not hike rate tomorrow on some excuse of tepid wage inflation and
uncertainty about “Trumponomics”. Yellen
may take a “hawkish hold” stance with strong indication of a June hike,
although eventually Fed may hike only once in Dec’17.
In
any way, a “hawkish hike” by Fed tomorrow may be not good for EM including
Indian market and a “hawkish hold” may bring some cheers for the time being.
Oil
is another factor, which may be going for a capitulation like in late 2015,
which may also affect the “risk on” sentiment globally and also domestically.
Apart from supply glut from the US shale oils, concern of production breach
agreement by Saudi Arabia is causing significant melt down in oil. A comment by
Kuwaiti oil minister that the current OPEC & Non-OPEC agreement may be extended
beyond the schedule of June’17 has helped oil to some extent yesterday; but
today his comment that oil is heading towards $45 is causing more selling.
Elsewhere,
UK Parliament has approved the invocation of Article-50 today and as par reports;
UK will formally start the divorce process from EU by this month (March’17).
The real Brexit pain and uncertainty may start now for UK economy and together
with Dutch election, BOJ & Fed meet, market may be very volatile in the
coming days.
SGX-NF
BNF
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