Nifty May Open Almost Flat Following Muted Global Cues Amid US Political Squabbling Over Fate Of Obamacare/Trumpcare

Market Mantra: 24/03/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9105 (+1 points)

Vital support for NF: 9060-9015/8980

Vital resistance for NF: 9150-9195/9235

Vital support for BNF: 20800-20650

Vital resistance for BNF: 21100-21250

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around 9105, almost flat following mixed/muted global cues amid ongoing US political squabbling over fate of Obamacare/Trumpcare. Although, eventually a political compromise will emerge with Trump and some of his dissident RNC members and Trump may pass his plan in voting by today-Monday, the fact that yesterday’s scheduled voting was cancelled has disappointed the market. This health care voting is being seen as a referendum over Trump’s credibility for passage of his other aspects of the “Trumponomics” rhetoric (tax cuts, fiscal/infra spending plan). Any failure to pass this health care bill may also cause slump in reflation (Trumpflation) trade and vice –versa.

Also, there are some reports that US senate is active with the H1B visa issues and that may also cause some local turbulence today in the IT outsourcing space.

Domestic focus may be also on the PSBS, following FM’s comment about a “substantial solution” for the banking stressed assets with a “few days”; most probably Govt may announce something today after the scheduled meeting with the RBI & other banks/stakeholders/policy makers. Govt may announce some plan like a bad bank of a super ARC in PPP mode for the 50 top most stressed accounts involving infra, power, steel, textile sector and it may not be a generalized bad bank.

Apart from hopes of a bad bank, GST optimism & better than expected CAD figure may also support the domestic market today; although any gain may be limited amid stretched valuation & concerns of banking woes and ongoing US political gloom

Hints for actionable trading idea:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain over 9150 area for further rally towards 9195-9235 & 9275-9350 for the day/ in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 9130 area, NF may fall towards 9060-9015 & 8980-8950 area for the day/ in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21100 area for further rally towards 21250-21350 & 21500-21650 area for the day/ in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 21050 area, BNF may fall towards 20950-20800 & 20650-20475 zone for the day/ in the near term (under bear case scenario).

 SGX-NF