Thursday, 30 March 2017

Nifty May Open Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues And Brightening Probability Of A July’17 GST Implementation & Banking NPA Resolution Policy; But SC “Jolt” On Auto Sector Yesterday And Some Rebound In USD & Oil May Also Cap Any Runaway Rally



Market Mantra: 30/03/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9160 (+9 points)

Key support for NF/NS: 9115-9075

Key resistance for NF/NS: 9195-9235

Key support for BNF/BNS: 21350-21150

Key resistance for BNF/BNS: 21500-21675

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around 9160, almost flat following mixed global cues ahead of FY & QTR ending (fund flow factor). Overnight US market was also almost flat despite better than expected home sales data and an upbeat oil following favourable inventory data & some OPEC chatters regarding extension of production cut agreement.

In the Asian session, China market is under pressure following ongoing money market tightening (interbank-OMO) steps by PBOC. USD is getting strength amid Brexit woes and some dovish statement by ECB yesterday emphasizing that they are not in hurry to end its easy money policy. Also, there was some renewed optimism about Trump’s $1 tln infrastructure plan over next ten years and almost all the Fed speakers are maintaining a moderate hawkish stance in their speech, advocating another 2-3 hikes in 2017, although subjected to various caveats, like US inflation trajectory and actual trajectory of Trumponomics.

Back to home, market may be in celebrating mode after passage of GST in the LS yesterday, although it is highly discounted and a July’17 roll out of the same may also be largely discounted and going forward, market may be also apprehending any probable disruption in the economy for a hurried launch of the same.

Yesterday’s adverse SC verdict on the BS-III issues on the Indian auto sectors may be far reaching than a short term disruptive action and market may also show some concern for this.  

Hints for actionable trading idea:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March)/Nifty Spot has to sustain over 9195 area for further rally towards 9235-9275 & 9350-9425 by today / in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 9175 area, NF/NS may fall towards 9115-9075 & 9035-8980 area by today / in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF/BNS has to sustain over 21500 area for further rally towards 21675-21750 & 21850-21950 area by today / in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 21450 area, BNF/BNS may fall towards 21350-21150 & 20950-20700 zone by today / in the near term (under bear case scenario).




 NF

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