Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues; All Eyes May Be On The Progress Of GST & Any Bag Bang Announcement By The Govt For A “Super ARC/Bad Bank” For NPA; NF May Face Big Hurdle At 9235-9275 Zone

Market Mantra: 31/03/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9185 (+0 points)

Key support for NF: 9175-9140

Key resistance for NF: 9235-9275

Key support for BNF: 21500-21350

Key resistance for BNF: 21675-21850

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9185, almost flat following mixed global cues. Overnight US market was stable (+0.33%) helped by better than expected revised Q4 GDP data at 2.1%. USD/US bond yields are also upbeat after some initial turbulence following a report that Trump may take some administrative action directly or indirectly against the so called “currency manipulators” (China/Japan/EU). But eventually, market shrugged it off as a mere rhetoric ahead of China Prez visit to USA and it may be another tactics of Trump to fetch some favourable trade deals (attack is the best defence).

In the early Asian session Chinese Mfg PMI data also came upbeat and that is supporting the China market by some extent after last few days fall amid PBOC & property market tightening. But, Hong Kong (HSI) is trading under some pressure, may be a better Chinese PMI data may prompt for more PBOC tightening.

Globally all eyes may be also on EU’s official response for the UK’s divorce letter (Brexit) and as par available indication, it may not be pleasant for UK as EU may bar UK’s access for the EZ free trade zone for these first two negotiation years (2017-19) and may also call for the Brexit (exit) fee of around EUR 60 bln from UK before start of any negotiation. So, initially, it may indicate a hard stance from EU.

Back to home, all eyes may be on the ongoing GST legislation & various rules; as par reports, GST may be finalized only by Apr-May’17 with all the tax rates for various products & services.

Market may also keenly watch various macro data to be released in the evening today and any big bang announcement by the Govt for the highly expected “bad bank” for NPA parking & future resolution.

As par GS, FY-17 & FY-18 Nifty target may be 9500 & 10200 subjected to an earnings recovery.

Hints for actionable trading idea:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over 9235 area for further rally towards 9275-9350 by today / in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 9215-9195 area, NF may fall towards 9145-9115 & 9075-9035 area by today / in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21675 area for further rally towards 21750-21850 area by today / in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 21625 area, BNF may fall towards 21350-21150 zone by today / in the near term (under bear case scenario).

 SGX-NF