Wednesday, 29 March 2017

Nifty May Open In Upbeat Mode Amid Mixed Global Cues Following Overnight Positive US Market & Uncertainty About “Real Brexit” Ahead Of Official Invocation Of Article-50 By UK Today



Market Mantra: 29/03/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9145 (+26 points)

Key support for NF: 9090-9075 & 9030-8980

Key resistance for NF: 9150-9175 & 9195-9235

Key support for BNF: 21250-21100

Key resistance for BNF: 21350-21500

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around 9145, in positive zone following overnight rally in US market (+0.73%), which shrugged off failure of passage of the medicare reform by Trump on renewed hopes about some compromise between Trump (RNC) & his political oppositions DNC. Also, Trump talked about priority for fiscal stimulus and tax cuts and that may have also supported the US market yesterday apart from QTR/FY (Japan) end fund flows and upbeat US consumer confidence data.

But, overall Asian cues were mixed today as UK is going to invoke Article-50 later today, thus officially began the process of Brexit. Although, market may be already discounted for the event, EU’s official response will also be keenly watched for the next process of negotiations; i.e. soft or hard Brexit. Going by various past reactions from the EU officials, it may be a hard Brexit for UK as a softer approach in negotiations & various trade deals by EU may also encourage more such exits from EU by some other nations and may also heighten the EU political risks. For Indian market, UK or even EU related companies may be in some kind of stress amid concern of a real Brexit.

Back to home, all eyes may be on any official announcement by Kotak Bank for any M&A and the list is long (Axis, M&M Fin , Bharat Fin, Mannapuram etc); most probably it will be either Axis or M&M Fin. Market may also focus on the SC for any final verdict about BS-III/IV vehicle sales issues and on any big bang announcement by the Govt for the resolution mechanism of banking NPA. As par policymakers, the pain of India’s twin balance sheet (corporate & banking stressed assets) may need to be resolved first with the ongoing effort of deleveraging & various M&A activities and India is not a market for so many weak banks (PSBS) and few strong banks are necessary. Thus, we may see consolidation in the banking industry like in telecom.

Also, RIL may be in focus today after reports of tepid response for its R-Jio Prime plan and as par reports, the offer may be extended further beyond 31st March.

On macro front, India Govt’s FY-18 borrowings may be on the higher side for H1FY18 as par latest report, which may be slightly negative for the banks, as it will have to lend more to the Govt at comparatively lower rates.

Hints for actionable trading idea:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain over 9195 area for further rally towards 9215/9235-9275 area for the day/ in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 9175-9150 area, NF may fall towards 9090/9075-9030 & 8980 area by for the day/ in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21350 area for further rally towards 21500-21675 area the day/ in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 21300-21250 area, BNF may fall towards 21100-21000 & 20900 zone for the day/ in the near term (under bear case scenario).



 NF

No comments:

Post a Comment