Market Mantra: 29/03/2017
(08:30)
SGX-NF: 9145 (+26
points)
Key support for NF: 9090-9075
& 9030-8980
Key resistance for NF:
9150-9175 & 9195-9235
Key support for BNF:
21250-21100
Key resistance for
BNF: 21350-21500
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around
9145, in positive zone following overnight rally in US market (+0.73%), which shrugged
off failure of passage of the medicare reform by Trump on renewed hopes about
some compromise between Trump (RNC) & his political oppositions DNC. Also,
Trump talked about priority for fiscal stimulus and tax cuts and that may have
also supported the US market yesterday apart from QTR/FY (Japan) end fund flows
and upbeat US consumer confidence data.
But, overall Asian cues were mixed today as UK is going to invoke
Article-50 later today, thus officially began the process of Brexit. Although,
market may be already discounted for the event, EU’s official response will
also be keenly watched for the next process of negotiations; i.e. soft or hard
Brexit. Going by various past reactions from the EU officials, it may be a hard
Brexit for UK as a softer approach in negotiations & various trade deals by
EU may also encourage more such exits from EU by some other nations and may
also heighten the EU political risks. For Indian market, UK or even EU related
companies may be in some kind of stress amid concern of a real Brexit.
Back to home, all eyes may be on any official announcement by
Kotak Bank for any M&A and the list is long (Axis, M&M Fin , Bharat
Fin, Mannapuram etc); most probably it will be either Axis or M&M Fin.
Market may also focus on the SC for any final verdict about BS-III/IV vehicle
sales issues and on any big bang announcement by the Govt for the resolution
mechanism of banking NPA. As par policymakers, the pain of India’s twin balance
sheet (corporate & banking stressed assets) may need to be resolved first
with the ongoing effort of deleveraging & various M&A activities and
India is not a market for so many weak banks (PSBS) and few strong banks are
necessary. Thus, we may see consolidation in the banking industry like in
telecom.
Also, RIL may be in focus today after reports of tepid response
for its R-Jio Prime plan and as par reports, the offer may be extended further
beyond 31st March.
On macro front, India Govt’s FY-18 borrowings may be on the
higher side for H1FY18 as par latest report, which may be slightly negative for
the banks, as it will have to lend more to the Govt at comparatively lower
rates.
Hints for actionable
trading idea:
Time & Price
action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain over 9195 area for
further rally towards 9215/9235-9275 area for the day/ in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the other side,
sustaining below 9175-9150 area, NF may fall towards 9090/9075-9030 & 8980
area by for the day/ in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to
sustain over 21350 area for further rally towards 21500-21675 area the day/ in
the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side,
sustaining below 21300-21250 area, BNF may fall towards 21100-21000 & 20900
zone for the day/ in the near term (under bear case scenario).
NF
No comments:
Post a Comment