Market
Mantra: 02/03/2017 (08:30)
Watch 9035-8995 & 9075-9125 Zone In
Nifty Fut (March), Which May Open Around 9000 Today
As
par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around 9000 (+28 points)
following another record high closing of overnight US market after investors cheered
Trump’s pledge of $1 tln as infra spending over 10 years in PPP mode and “massive”
US tax cut (subject to US congress approval). Although, these rhetoric of Trump
is well known, his overall attitude and reconciliatory tone has made the market
somewhat relieved that after 1st month of turbulence, Trump is now
more or less showing as “President” rather than a hardcore CEO of a corporate.
There was distinct lack of political capital with Trump at the beginning and
now it seems that he is maturing himself a Political person gradually, which is
vital for passage of all his plans through the US congress. Thus, it may be
2018 or beyond that, when we can see Trumponomics in reality as US congress
will eventually has to pass it in any form and thus hopes of future stimulus
(fiscal spending) and “huge” tax cuts may bring the much awaited growth & reasonable
inflation in the US economy and market is rejoicing that. As usual, after the
initial euphoria for Trump’s speech is over, market may also find that at 2400
level, SPX-500 is quite expensive and in that scenario, lack of any specific
plans coupled with a hawkish Fed may prompt for some long unwinding. We may
see, SPX-500 to top out from these 2400-2415 level to again 2360-2300 zone in
the near term as there will be no real triggers for US market in the coming
days. Any tax cut proposal may come only after Aug’17 or till the Obamacare
issue id resolved. Due to budgetary constraints, Trump may not be also in a
position to unveil his actual spending plan before 2018.
Back
to home, after the better than expected GDP rally yesterday, analysts are still
scrambling to find out the actual reasons behind significant divergence between
their projections (6.4%) & actual figure (7%) published by the Govt/CSO. One
of the reasons may be favourable base effect.
Although,
yesterday’s Mfg PMI headline number (50.7) looks good, the overall employment
portion & confidence level of the business owners are still tepid due to
adverse effect of DeMo. Market will also keenly watch the service PMI in the coming
days.
Overall
auto sales figure so far released may be mixed; but 2W sales still very shaky
and registering negative growth, which may be an indication that even after reasonable
ReMo, rural economy & consumer sentiment may be still tepid.
Hints for actionable
trading idea:
Technically, Nifty Fut (March @9000)
has to sustain over 9035 area for further rally towards 9075*- 9125 & 9195-9260
in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below 9015-8995 zone, NF may fall
towards 8940/8910-8875* & 8840-8790 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF (LTP:
20838) has to sustain over 20950 area for further rally towards 21050-21150*
& 21350-21500 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side,
sustaining below 20900 area, BNF may fall towards 20600-20500* &
20350-20000 zone in the near term (under bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
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