Nifty May Open Almost Flat Following Mixed Global Cues After Yellen “Almost Confirmed” About March Fed Rate Hike Unless US Economic Data Looks “Terrible” For The Next Two Weeks; Concerns Of State Poll Outcome (UP) & Fed Hike May Drag The Domestic Market, Despite Optimism About July-Sep GST Roll Out

Market Mantra: 06/03/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8975-8870 & 8995-9075 Zone In Nifty Fut (March), Which May Open Around 8930 Today

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around 8930, almost flat following mixed Global/Asian cues. Japan is trading around lower after Yen got stronger following North Korea’s missile test early in the morning today. Also, on Friday, after Yellen’s comments that Fed is ready to hike in March and also for multiple times in 2017 (3 hikes??) if incoming US economic data is not looked terrible in the coming days, USD was sold off as a classic example of “buy the rumour & sell the news”. But, part of that may be some of  Bullar’d dovish comment and improving political landscape in France, where prospect of the centrist candidate looks brighter now.

China is trading higher after its party convention declared or set some economic projection for the Govt which looks very reasonable & practical and also in line with consensus (GDP growth of 6.5% or higher if possible, 3% fiscal deficit/GDP ratio, 3% CPI target for FY-18).

Back to home, a real concern of Fed rate hike on 15^th March may also put the market in some kind of pressure along with state poll outcome/exit polls in the coming days. Although, as par unofficial bookies, BJP/NDA is going to win all the states in a big way including UP; but Punjab may be an exception. Also, BJP/NAMO is fighting very seriously in UP to defeat the SP-Cong (“Karan/Arjun”) combination and any disappointment in UP, may result in significant volatility in the market.

Although, FM is quite optimistic that from July’17, GST will be implemented, still there are lots of steps to be taken and above all, small traders may not be prepared within next 3 months or so, considering that there are lots of uncertainties and confusions regarding the GST apart from IT preparedness; time is really short apart from some possible issues (political) in final passage of the same in the forthcoming Parliament session.

Hints for actionable trading idea:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March @8930) has to sustain over 8995 area for further rally towards 9035-9075* & 9125-9195 and 9260-9350 for the day/ in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8975 zone, NF may fall towards 8915-8870* & 8830-8775 and 8715-8645 area for the day/ in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20604) has to sustain over 20950 area for further rally towards 21050-21150* & 21350-21500 area for the day/ in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 20900 area, BNF may fall towards 20750-20500 & 20400*-20250 zone for the day/ in the near term (under bear case scenario).

SGX-NF