Market Wrap: 20/11/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Nov):10318 (+9; +0.09%)
(TTM PE: 26.27; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 392;
NS: 10299; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25829 (+10; +0.04%)
(TTM PE: 29.35; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
878; BNS: 25769; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 21/11/2017:
Key support for NF: 10290/10250-10215/10190
Key resistance for NF: 10350/10375-10410
Key support for BNF:
25700-25500
Key resistance for BNF:
26000-26100
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty
Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over
10410 area for further rally towards 10460- 10500/10535 & 10575-10675 zone
in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10390-10375 area, NF may fall towards
10290-10250 & 10215/10190 & 10150 -10095 zone in the short term (under
bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further rally towards
26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25950 area, BNF may fall towards 25700-25550 & 25400-25200
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50)
today closed around 10318, edged up by almost 9 points (+0.09%) after making an
opening session low of 10277 and late day high of 10342.
Indian market today opened around 10298, almost flat tracking muted
global/Asian cues on China crackdown on its wealth/asset management (WM)
products, uncertainty about US corp tax cut, failure of Merkel to forge a
“Jamaican Coalition” Govt in Germany even after 2 months of the election
coupled with Indian dilemma over Govt’s fiscal spending vs fiscal discipline
after Moody’s “Santa gift” to Modi (upgrade).
Both USD & EUR are
down which is bad for export heavy Asian markets. Although a lower
EUR should be good for export savvy EU market, the reason (German political
jitters) for the lower EUR is also not good for the overall German/EU market
sentiment today.
But both China & HK as well as EU market (Germany) recovered
to some extent towards the closing session of Indian market and that may have
also boosted the local market sentiment. Increase in new home sales prices for
Oct in various China cities and some rumour that FDP is going to support any
minority Merkel Govt from outside has helped the global market sentiment to
some extent and Indian market also closed edged up.
Indian Market Continue To Digest The Implications Of Moody’s Upgrade
& Waiting For Further Clues Of PSBS Recaps, GDP & RBI Policy In The
Days Ahead:
Beside supportive global cues, Indian market sentiment may have
also boosted by mega response in Govt’s Bharat—22 ETF, which may collect
Rs.14.5 bln for the Govt as disinvestment money, now urgently required to
support the PSBS recaps & other fiscal spending.
Govt is also in active discussion to fork out excess surplus
(profit) from RBI in the form of special dividends for around Rs.33 bln to
support the PSBS recaps & fiscal balance; but so far RBI & its strong
employees union has not agreed as they like to keep the money for any future
exigencies despite huge pressure from the Govt.
But, Govt’s ongoing “war on black money” may be also haunting
the Indian market sentiment right now; Govt is poised to link all the
DEMAT/MF/LI/Other financial products including real estate with the UID and
will also launch fresh surgical strike on “Benami properties/financial assets”.
Today SEBI begin crack down on penny stocks firms for PMLA angle after PMO led
push.
Looking ahead, market will focus on actual Nifty earnings (EPS)
in Q2, GDP, RBI policy stance and actual trajectory of borrowing costs of
Indian corporates after Moody’s upgrade. Although, today we have seen some
positive movements for some large cos like RIL which generally raises funds
from foreign market, these cos has already lower borrowing costs due to their
own B/S strength.
Borrowing costs may significantly change for Indian cos, if
S&P and Fitch also follow Moody’s upgrade, which seems to be unlikely at
this point of time.
Today Nifty was supported
by RIL, HDFC Bank, VEDL, Yes Bank, Kotak Bank, Bosch, Gail,
Maruti, Bajaj Fin, ITC by around 33 points cumulatively.
Nifty was dragged by ICICI Bank, HDFC, Infy, SBI, IOC, Ambuja Cements, Ultratech
Cements, DRL, TECHM & Adani ports by around 31 points altogether.
Overall, today Indian market was helped by automobiles, FMCG, metals,
property developers, energies, CPSE/PSU, mixed banks, while dragged by
financials, exporters (techs, healthcare-lower USD), PSBS, selected private
banks.
Logistics were upbeat as they were given infra status as another
dose of incremental reform by the Govt on the weekend; Yes Bank & Indusind
Bank surged on inclusion on BSE Sensex index, another global barometer of
Indian market beside Nifty. Lupin & Cipla was down for exclusion out of
Sensex.
Cement stocks were in pressure due to SC push to ban use of pet
coke & furnace oil by the industry (anti-pollution drive after Delhi smog fiasco).
Also as par some reports, cement cos has slashed their prices for certain
markets, like western India.
Real estate/property developers stocks were in limelight for
affordable housing push by the Govt (increase in carpet area) and buzz of GST
inclusion. Biocon rallied by almost 7% for favourable EIR from US FDA for its
Bangalore plant, which removed a great deal of uncertainty.
Europe Set To Trade Lower On Muted Global Cues Amid German Political Uncertainty, China Crackdown On WM Products & US Tax Reform Suspense
Asia Closed Under Stress On Higher Local Currency & China Regulatory Concern
USDJPY Edged Up On German Political Risk On But Struggles To Find Direction Amid US Tax Reform Suspense & Muller's Ongoing Investigation About Trump's Alleged Russian Link
SGX-NF
BNF
EURUSD
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