Market Mantra: 03/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10465 (+13)
For the Day: updated at 09:10
Key support for NF: 10415-10370/10345
Key resistance for NF:
10505-10575
Key support for BNF:
25225-25050
Key resistance for BNF:
25575-25775
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, NF has to sustain over 10525 area for further rally towards
10575-10625 & 10675-10825 zone in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10505 area, NF may fall towards 10415-10370/10345
& 10330-10290 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, BNF has to
sustain over 25625 area for further rally towards 25775-25935 & 26100-26325
zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25575 area, BNF may fall towards 25400-25225 & 25050-24850
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10465, edged up by almost 13 points
tracking mixed global cues after
much anticipated US tax reform plan, new Fed chair were announced yesterday
with much fanfare coupled an “unexpected dovish hike” by BOE.
As most of the US tax
plans were already known to the market, there was not so much reaction.
Overall yesterday’s plan reveals little details, especially about the corp tax
cut of 15% procedure; will it be gradual or not!! Even if it will applicable at
a time rather than in phases over next 5 years, abolition of various tax
deductions to make the overall taxation system simpler may be
counter-productive as there will be little difference over the effective tax
rate (35% + tax deductions vs 20%-tax deductions).
Again, the present form of US tax reform bill may be
controversial in many respects like 50% cut in mortgage interest deduction, doubling of SD, removal of various other tax
credits and mandatory US corporate tax on overseas assets (cash) by 12% to fund
the tax cut deficit partially!! This tax reform proposal may cause additional
US fiscal deficit to the tune of $1.5 tln over next ten years, if passed under
current form.
Thus, the current form of tax reform proposal is
not only controversial from political point of view, but all the stake holders
may also oppose and thus it may be quite difficult to pass the legislation soon
(by Dec’17 or early 2018) and thus market may not like this uncertainty.
Although, full details of the tax reform plan is
not clear yet, various big US business organizations (NAR/NFIB) are already
disapproving it and overall it seems that it will be very difficult to pass it
in the current form and 10YUSD TSY
yields dropped after the plan yesterday as market may be believing that it
will not spur economic growth in the near term, even if passed in the current
form by early 2018.
In any way, this drafting of tax bill is just a
preliminary step for the US tax reform; various modifications, final approval
& ultimate passage of it may take significant time and the whole process
may be further delayed.
Thus overall reaction from the market is quite
muted. Both USD/US stock markets
reacted negatively on initial report of tax plan amid cut in mortgage interest
deductions, but recovered later, may be on realization that this tax reform
proposal is very tough to be implemented in the current format.
Also, proposal for repatriation of foreign assets (cash
& cash equivalent) by US MNC and mandatory tax on those assets, even if not
repatriated may be negative for big US corporates (MNC), being amounted to
double taxation and may not bore well for the US stock market.
The much awaited Trump announcement (like a
reality TV show) of Fed Chair was
basically also a neutral event for the market yesterday as name of Powell was
well telegraphed. Powell is being seen as a centrist (owlish) Fed chief, just
like Yellen (data dependent with gradual approach) and thus there will be
continuity of present Fed policy, favourable
for the US stock market, but may not be good for USD.
As Powell
is selected by Trump after much “research”
as he believes that Powell knows, what is good for US economy (“Powell Understands What It Takes To Make The
US Economy Grow”-Trump) !!
This may be an indication that Powell will follow
Trump’s vision to make “America great” by keeping USD lower and thus he may be proved as more dovish than Yellen in
the coming days; credibility of Fed’s 2018 dot-plots (3 hikes) may be in doubt and
thus we may see only 1 hike in 2018 at best. Hopefully, Powell will be “passed”
by US senate today/soon without much debate.
Trump yesterday did not announce any name for the
Fed VC post; there was some hope in the market that Taylor, a known hawk may
get the post to keep a balance in FOMC; in that sense it may be slightly disappointing
for the USD bulls also.
A lower USD as par Trump’s vision, which may be
also endorsed by Powell in the coming days may not be good for Asian & EU
market, being export heavy, but it may be good for US market and also be
helpful for imported inflation & ultimately growth.
Overnight
US market closed mixed on US tax
reform proposal as it brings more uncertainty and less details about effective
corp tax rate without earlier deductions; overall yesterday’s tax reform
proposal may be just an initial step and we may see more squabbling about it in
the coming days. But appointment of Powell as Fed chair may be good for US
stock market and thus after initial negative reaction, it closed mixed. Powell
may be also favourable for Wall Street’s (Banks) deregulation (various trading
curbs)
DJ-30 gained by almost 0.35% (another milestone high), S&P-500 was almost unchanged at 2580
(+0.02%), while NQ-100 dropped by
0.02%; DJ-30 was helped by Boeing, 3M & GS; after the market hours, Apple
gained upbeat sales figure for the “holiday shopping” season.
Overall, US market was yesterday helped by
industrials, banks & financials, while dragged by property developers/home
builders/home improvements (cut in mortgage interest tax deduction), techs (FB
tumbled on spending/capex & US warning about foreign/Russian ads/election interference),
e-car makers (Tesla plunged on poor earnings & guidance), telecoms,
materials & consumer discretionary.
US stock
future (SPX-500) is now trading
around 2578, almost unchanged on mixed Asian cues (China concern) ahead of EU
market opening; all eyes may be now on US NFP today along with earnings, which
is so far mixed/steady.
EU stocks closed in negative yesterday in Stoxx-600 (-0.5%)
on higher EUR (upbeat economic data) and some muted earnings. But FTSE-100 surged as GBP tumbled on “dovish
hike” by BOE yesterday.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty Fut/India-50) is now trading around 10460, almost flat on
mixed global cues and lack of any meaningful domestic cues!! After initial
consolidation, market recovered to some extent from the day low of 10425 (so
far) and may be waiting for further EU cues, which may also open edged up on
stable EUR, earnings optimism and signs of Catalan truce.
Indian market today recovered by some extent after
improved Service PMI (Oct) at 51.7
vs 50.7 prior, which is at four months high; but Composite PMI came as flat at
51.3 vs 51.1 because of muted Mfg PMI.
Overall, today’s Service PMI may be an indication
of strength of Pvt sector, greater inflows of new business/orders and higher
wages & pricing ability, signaling higher inflation & growth in the
coming days (?) after GST blues.
As par Markit: “Service providers retained an
optimistic outlook regarding business activity over the coming 12 months, while
the labour market was further reinforced as firms raised their payroll numbers
over the month. On the price front, the service sector experienced further
upward cost pressures as the rate of inflation quickened to the joint-fastest
since April 2016.”
Overall, India’s current Composite PMI may be now much
less than average PMI for DM or even some EM/BRICS nations after DeMo & GST
led economic disruptions.
Apart from global cues, Indian market may now
focus on Q2 earnings trajectory & PSBS
recaps mechanism; so far it seems that PSBS recaps may be equity/EPS
dilutive as it will eventually increase Bank’s B/S EQ base, when implemented,
unless Govt converts those recap bonds into general GSECS and sold in the
market.
But that may also increase India’s Debt/GDP ratio;
Indian road minister is also planning for a $5 bln bond (debt) to fund “Brahmatala”,
the recently announced road & port infra projects (stimulus) for Rs.6.92
tln.
SGX-NF
No comments:
Post a Comment