Market Mantra: 29/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10395 (+22)
For the Day: updated:12:30
Key support for NF:
10380/10325-10280/10255
Key resistance for NF:
10425-10475/10510
Key support for BNF:
25700-25400
Key resistance for BNF:
26000-26100
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over 10475 area for further
rally towards 10510/10540-10585 & 10635-10695 zone in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10455-10425 area, NF may fall towards
10380-10325 & 10280/10255- 10190
zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further
rally towards 26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25950-25875 area, BNF may fall towards
25700-25400 & 25200-24950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10395, edged up by almost 22 points
on mixed global/Asian cues. Overnight US market soared on US Tax reform
optimism after Senate Budget Comm passed the RNC Senate tax plan narrowly
(12-11) to the floor for voting tomorrow.. USD was under pressure despite
upbeat US economic data yesterday on dovish rhetoric by Powell, who will
continue the legacy of Yellen; a lower USD is good for US stock market.
A highly anticipated NK ICBM launch yesterday night failed to do
any great risk-aversion; market dropped on news of NK missile in the air, but
soon recovered when it landed in the sea near Japan. But China & HK market
again came into pressure today on deleveraging concern and keeping the overall
regional sentiment depressed.
In the morning Asian session, NK authority has officially
announced the successful ICBM launched yesterday, claiming it “most powerful”
and capable to hit US main-lands; but It’s intended for self defense and not to
attack any nation unless it do not infringe NK’s sovereignty. Thus, overall
tone of NK as well as US is very measured now.
USD is almost flat on NK ICBM, dovish Powell, hopes of US Tax reform
squabbling and an imminent threat of US Govt shut down yearly drama; although
market is quite confident about Dec’17 rate hike, the credibility of Fed’s 2018
dot-plots of 3-4 rate hikes may in doubt.
US market yesterday got boost also from ant-dumping stance from
Trump & Co on Chinese aluminum imports into the country and thus scrips
like Alcoa & Century Aluminum soared; it was also helped by financials on
hopes of Tax reform. DJ-30 soared by almost 1.1%; S&P-500 surged by almost
1% to close around 2627, while NQ-100 rose by around 0.5%; 10 of 11 sectors
closed in green. A solid consumer confidence data may have also helped the
market yesterday.
Overall, US market is now being supported by solid earnings, expanding
US economy, hopes of Trumponomics (Tax reform/deregulation & incremental
fiscal/infra spending) and muted returns from other asset classes. But any disappointment
from US Corp tax cut issues & US geo-political jitters may be also a big
risk now.
US index future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2625, almost
unchanged on mixed Asian cues. Technically, for SPX-500, 2615 is now a
positional support and consecutive closing above that it may further rally
towards 2645-2655 area in the near term; otherwise expect some correction.
Overnight EU market also rallied in Stoxx-600 by 0.60% on techs
optimism; Ocado soared by almost 21% following a tech deal; market was also
helped by energies (analyst optimism, upbeat guidance & cash dividend by Shell),
banks & financials (after successful UK stress tests) and exporters (lower
EUR). DAX-30 rose by 0.5%, while CAC-40 added 0.6%.
FTSE-100 soared by 1%, helped by Shell optimism, exporters (lower
GBP on concern of Hard Brexit during UK market hours), mixed banks after UK
stress tests, Uniliver (upbeat guidance), but dragged by miners BHP on news
about its cost cutting measures in AU.
EU index future is also indicating for positive opening amid
flat EUR; but FTSE-100 is poised to trade in negative on higher GBP after
reports that UK & EU has agreed for a open ended Brexit bill between 45-55
bln EUR, which may be settled in future courses as par actual costs to EU for
Brexit. Although, UK has denied any such Brexit payment deal, market is
assuming that it will be officially announced shortly.
Divorce bill payment was a major stumbling block for soft Brexit
apart from EU citizens’ right issue in UK & the thorny issues of Irish
border.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10395, edged up by almost
0.15% on mixed Asian cues ahead of EU market opening. Looking ahead, market
will focus on Q2 GDP (est: 6.4% vs prior: 5.7%) & Nov Mfg PMI (est: 51 vs
prior 50.3) and Nov auto sales. But valuation may be a concern on mixed/muted
earnings.
SGX-NF
SPX-500
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