Market Wrap: 29/11/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Nov):10354 (-23; -0.23%)
(TTM PE: 26.43; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 392;
NS: 10361; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25789 (-87; -0.34%)
(TTM PE: 29.38; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
878; BNS: 25796; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 30/11/2017: (Nov-Fut/Spot)
Key support for NF: 10325/10300-10280/10250
Key resistance for NF:
10355-10395/10425
Key support for BNF:
25700-25400
Key resistance for BNF: 26000-26100
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Nov (NF/NS) has to sustain over 10425 area for
further rally towards 10475-10510/10540 & 10585-10635/10695 zone in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10395-10375/10355 area, NF may fall towards
10300-10280/10255 & 10190-10150/10125 zone in the short term (under bear
case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF/BNS) has to sustain over 26000 area for
further rally towards 26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25950-25875 area, BNF may fall towards
25700-25400 & 25200-24950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) today (29thNov) closed around
10354, inched down by almost 23 points (-0.23%), diverging from generallystable Asian & EU market mood at that point of time after making an opening
minutes high of 10410 and closing session low of 10340.
Market today opened
around 10398, gap-up by almost 25 points amid mixed global/Asian cues on US tax
Reform & Powell talks of banking deregulation; but it soon succumbed to
selling pressure ahead of key macro data (Q2 GDP/PMI) & OPEC meet.
There was virtually no effect of the NK ICBM test today either
on the global or Indian market because it was highly expected and also the
overall reaction & counter reaction from both NK & US are much more
measures rather than an earlier “fire & fury”.
Market may be also concerned about stretched valuations amid
muted/mixed Q1/Q2 earnings and outcome of GJ elections despite high probability
of a clean sweep by NAMO/BJP this time too; any below expected result from BJP,
may be interpreted as a political suicide on DeMo & GST blues and Govt may
go slow in its future reform agenda and will look for political populism.
Indian market may be also concerned over PSBS recaps mechanism
and its eventual effect on the country’s fiscal health.
As par Govt sources on PSB recap bonds:”Govt to frontload PSU
bank recap bonds and opts out of formation of holding company for bank recap
bonds; Govt believes banks need further capitalization as soon as possible and
will begin issuing recap bonds by December-end to PSBS; Govt to ask for funds
from Parliament via 2nd Supplementary Demand for Grants & also
likely to assure bonds are fiscally neutral”.
Previously, there was some assumption that Govt will form a
separate recaps holding co, which would issue the recaps bonds to the PSBS and
thus Govt may not have any direct effect of fiscal slippages; also there will
be several caveats for the PSBS to receive recaps funds/bonds from the Govt.
Another concern may be finding sufficient eligible & quality corp & SME
borrowers by the Banks for lending & private capex thrust even after
recaps.
Market may be also worried about finding eligible buyers for the
huge corp stressed assets in the IBC/NPA resolution mechanism. As par reports,
Arcelor Mittal, who has eyes set on assets like Essar & Bhushan Steel, but
it will not be a cakewalk to bid for these insolvent assets; Mittal can’t bid
for insolvent assets without meeting new IBC norms, which bar bids from even
related parties if account NPA for over a year apart from the promoters itself
to prevent back door entry of the “defaulters promoters”; then who will buy
these stressed assets?
Market may be also concerned about higher trajectory of Oil ahead
of OPEC-NOPEC meet and any production cut agreement for another 12 months
beyond March’18.
Today Nifty was supported by Bosch, HDFC Bank, IOC, Adani Ports,
Bharti Infratel, ICICI Bank, RIL, ITC, L&T and Maruti by almost 117 points
altogether.
Nifty was dragged by HDFC, Axis Bank, VEDL, TCS, SBI, ZEEL,
Eicher Motors, Asian Paints, Tata Motors & Bajaj Fin by almost 123 points
cumulatively.
Overall, Indian market was today helped by automakers, FMCG,
healthcare, property developers, infra, energies & MNC, while dragged by
banks & financials (specially PSBS), techs, media & metals.
BTCUSD:
USDJPY:
BTCUSD:
USDJPY:
SGX-NF
BNF
USDJPY
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