Market Mantra: 08/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10410 (+0)
For the Day: updated at 12:30
Key support for NF:
10360-10290
Key resistance for NF: 10450-10525
Key support for BNF:
25200-24950
Key resistance for BNF:
25450-25700
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, NF has to sustain over 10450 area for further rally towards
10525-10575 & 10625-10675 zone in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10430 area, NF may fall towards 10360-10290
& 10240-10190 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, BNF has to
sustain over 25450 area for further rally towards 25600-25800 &
25950-26100 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25400 area, BNF may fall towards 25200-24950 & 24800-24550
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10410, almost unchanged on mixed
Global/Asian Cues amid drops in USD & mixed China trade data.
USD is lower on US tax squabbling. As par some reports, RNC may be
considering to delay US corp tax cut
by another one year and US MNC area also not too amused about Trump’s “Nuclear
Tax” (tax on overseas profits & current assets).
Market may focus also on a separate version of US tax plan to be
released by US senate this week which might have significant changes regarding
mortgage deduction cap & treatment of 20% corp tax and likelihood of
passage of US tax reform proposal into law remains far from certain.
This US tax
proposal will be subjected to potentially key changes as it could affect
revenue significantly for some states & local jurisdictions, if passed in
current form.
Meanwhile, Trump has
double toned his NK rhetoric at his speech in SK Parliament. He has warned
NK not to underestimate & try the power of US and not making a “fatal
miscalculation” and all these are adding to USD pressure; a weak USD is not
good for export heavy Asian & EU markets.
NK responded with comments that “Trump has intent to light fuse of nuclear
war in trip to SK”. Earlier Trump tried for a surprise visit at the DMZ between
NK & SK, but his helicopter was unable to land there for heavy fogs;
yesterday he has called for dialogue with NK to solve this decade old legacy
issues and as a result USD saw some risk-on movement.
China’s trade balance for Oct flashed as mixed; exports grew by 6.9% vs est 7.2%;
prior: 8.1%; imports grew by 17.2% vs est 16%; prior: 18.6%-R. Overall, miss in
exports and fall in import of commodities (oil, basic raw materials-iron ore)
are slightly negative, although it may be due to Oct Golden holiday and ongoing
production curbs for anti-pollution measures and deleveraging. Overall China
trade data may be still very healthy.
Overnight, US market closed mixed on US tax reform concern; DJ-30 edged up by 0.04%,
S&P-500 was almost flat and closed at 2591, while NQ-100 fell by 0.30%; US small
caps (Russell-2000) slumped 1.26% (corp tax cut delay concern; small cos are
direct beneficiary of simpler corp tax).
Overall, US market was dragged by banks & financials (lower
US bond yields) and consumer discretionary sector coupled with
speculative/mixed M&A/deleveraging news; Broadcom fell over 2%, while 21st
Century added over 1%; utilities (P&G) and some consumer staples helped the
market, while some e-commerce/online travel cos plunged on muted guidance (Trip
Advisor/Priceline).
So far over 80% of S&P-500 cos has reported earnings and out
of that around 75% beats the market estimates led by commodities/energies,
while financials/insurers has underperformed due to recent dual hurricanes. But
any disappointment in US tax reform may also cause some serious headwinds for
the market.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2583, down by almost 0.13% on
mixed Asian cues ahead of EU market opening, which is set to start the day in
negative tone on higher EUR.
EU stocks yesterday fell by 0.5% in Stoxx-600 on muted earnings from Siemens
and some other retailers; but energies helped. FTSE-100 slumped by 0.7% on
higher GBP and subdued earnings/guidance.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10385, down by almost 0.25% ahead
of EU market opening; market has rallied by almost 21% in the 1st
anniversary of DeMo, primarily boosted by power of domestic liquidity on
formalization of India’s “hidden gems” (so called black money).
Market may now focus on renewed Govt’s war on black money/shell
cos & Paradise PMLA fiasco and also on oil, GST simplification, medication of
IBC/NCLT rules and Q2 earnings, which is so far may be termed as mixed, but not
enough to justify the current TTM PE of over 26, all being equal.
SGX-NF
No comments:
Post a Comment