Wednesday, 8 November 2017

Nifty Set To Consolidate On 1ST Anniversary Of DeMo Amid Mixed Global Cues On Lower USD & US Tax Reform Squabbling; Oil & “War On Black Money” May Be In Focus Amid Stretched Valuations



Market Mantra: 08/11/2017 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10410 (+0)

For the Day: updated at 12:30

Key support for NF: 10360-10290

Key resistance for NF: 10450-10525

Key support for BNF: 25200-24950

Key resistance for BNF: 25450-25700

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, NF has to sustain over 10450 area for further rally towards 10525-10575 & 10625-10675 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10430 area, NF may fall towards 10360-10290 & 10240-10190 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, BNF has to sustain over 25450 area for further rally towards 25600-25800 & 25950-26100  zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25400 area, BNF may fall towards 25200-24950 & 24800-24550 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10410, almost unchanged on mixed Global/Asian Cues amid drops in USD & mixed China trade data. 

USD is lower on US tax squabbling. As par some reports, RNC may be considering to delay US corp tax cut by another one year and US MNC area also not too amused about Trump’s “Nuclear Tax” (tax on overseas profits & current assets).

Market may focus also on a separate version of US tax plan to be released by US senate this week which might have significant changes regarding mortgage deduction cap & treatment of 20% corp tax and likelihood of passage of US tax reform proposal into law remains far from certain. 

This US tax proposal will be subjected to potentially key changes as it could affect revenue significantly for some states & local jurisdictions, if passed in current form.

Meanwhile, Trump has double toned his NK rhetoric at his speech in SK Parliament. He has warned NK not to underestimate & try the power of US and not making a “fatal miscalculation” and all these are adding to USD pressure; a weak USD is not good for export heavy Asian & EU markets.

NK responded with comments that “Trump has intent to light fuse of nuclear war in trip to SK”. Earlier Trump tried for a surprise visit at the DMZ between NK & SK, but his helicopter was unable to land there for heavy fogs; yesterday he has called for dialogue with NK to solve this decade old legacy issues and as a result USD saw some risk-on movement.

China’s trade balance for Oct flashed as mixed; exports grew by 6.9% vs est 7.2%; prior: 8.1%; imports grew by 17.2% vs est 16%; prior: 18.6%-R. Overall, miss in exports and fall in import of commodities (oil, basic raw materials-iron ore) are slightly negative, although it may be due to Oct Golden holiday and ongoing production curbs for anti-pollution measures and deleveraging. Overall China trade data may be still very healthy.

Overnight, US market closed mixed on US tax reform concern; DJ-30 edged up by 0.04%, S&P-500 was almost flat and closed at 2591, while NQ-100 fell by 0.30%; US small caps (Russell-2000) slumped 1.26% (corp tax cut delay concern; small cos are direct beneficiary of simpler corp tax).

Overall, US market was dragged by banks & financials (lower US bond yields) and consumer discretionary sector coupled with speculative/mixed M&A/deleveraging news; Broadcom fell over 2%, while 21st Century added over 1%; utilities (P&G) and some consumer staples helped the market, while some e-commerce/online travel cos plunged on muted guidance (Trip Advisor/Priceline).

So far over 80% of S&P-500 cos has reported earnings and out of that around 75% beats the market estimates led by commodities/energies, while financials/insurers has underperformed due to recent dual hurricanes. But any disappointment in US tax reform may also cause some serious headwinds for the market.

US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2583, down by almost 0.13% on mixed Asian cues ahead of EU market opening, which is set to start the day in negative tone on higher EUR.

EU stocks yesterday fell by 0.5% in Stoxx-600 on muted earnings from Siemens and some other retailers; but energies helped. FTSE-100 slumped by 0.7% on higher GBP and subdued earnings/guidance.

Back to home, Indian market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10385, down by almost 0.25% ahead of EU market opening; market has rallied by almost 21% in the 1st anniversary of DeMo, primarily boosted by power of domestic liquidity on formalization of India’s “hidden gems” (so called black money).

Market may now focus on renewed Govt’s war on black money/shell cos & Paradise PMLA fiasco and also on oil, GST simplification, medication of IBC/NCLT rules and Q2 earnings, which is so far may be termed as mixed, but not enough to justify the current TTM PE of over 26, all being equal.



SGX-NF

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