Market Mantra: 20/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10295 (-4)
For the Day: updated:12:30
Key support for NF:
10270-10215/10190
Key resistance for NF: 10345/10375-10410
Key support for BNF:
25700-25500
Key resistance for BNF:
26000-26100
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty
Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over
10410 area for further rally towards 10460- 10500/10535 & 10575-10675 zone
in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10390-10375 area, NF may fall towards 10295/10270-10215/10190
& 10150 -10095 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further rally towards
26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25950 area, BNF may fall towards 25700-25550 & 25400-25200
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10295, almost flat tracking muted global/Asian cues on China
crackdown on its wealth/asset management (WM) products, uncertainty about US
corp tax cut, failure of Merkel to forge a “Jamaican Coalition” Govt in Germany
even after 2 months of the election coupled with Indian dilemma over Govt’s
fiscal spending vs fiscal discipline after Moody’s “Santa gift” to Modi
(upgrade).
Both USD & EUR are
down which is bad for export heavy Asian markets. Although a lower
EUR should be good for export savvy EU market, the reason (German political
jitters) for the lower EUR is also not good for the overall German/EU market
sentiment.
Merkel has failed to forge a “Jamaican coalition Govt” with three different
parties of different ideology despite the hard work for the last two months;
now Merkel has to form a minority Govt or forge an old alliance with SDP, the
main opposition party of Germany or call for a fresh election.
Going by different scenarios in Germany, the first & last
options are more likely, considering that SDP is not comfortable to be in the
Govt after their poor election performance. All these lead to political uncertainty in the EU’s
strongest economy (Germany) and rise of anti-establishment & nationalistic politics,
which is on the rise in EU (Spain/Catalonia, Italy, UK/Brexit etc).
Although such political tensions may help Draghi to go for the
policy normalization without worrying too much on the EUR’s strength, overall
political & administrative uncertainty is not good for the EU economy.
China’s increasing policy
tightening and clamp down on $15 tln WM products, which have significant equity positions & shadow banking
activities has affected the sentiment of the regional market (Asia/HK) today
despite encouraging housing market data in China over the weekend (new home
prices has raised in 50 China cities out of 70); earlier there was data that
shows sharp falling in new home sales.
On Friday, after China market closing, PBOC & other financial regulators has unveiled sweeping
regulations (draft rules) for the WM products aiming at further deleveraging in
line with China’s new policy for stable & prudent growth. Financial
products will be encouraged to invest in real economy rather than in other
products for arbitrage and bank’s WM products are required to reflect the risks
& returns of the underlying assets rather than offering a guaranteed principal
repayment or rate of return.
PBOC has also prohibited the stressed firms (defaulters) to
invest in any WM products and it will maintain a prudent & neutral monetary
policy to keep liquidity conditions stable.
PBOC says highly indebted firms will not be allowed to invest in
WM products; financial institutions (FI) will be punished for providing
implicit guarantees for WM products; FI need to provision 10% of WM products
fee income as risk reserves; FI not allowed to use WM products to invest in
commercial banks' credit assets.
PBOC also forbids FI from conducting asset pools to manage WM
products; PBOC will control leverage levels for WM products to curb asset price
bubbles; Non-FI not allowed to issue or sell WM products; PBOC has allowed the buffer
period for new regulations till 30th June’2019. As usual, China’s
sneezing is causing cold for the global market/risk-on sentiment and China’s
soaring bond yields may also reflecting in US bond yield curve flattening,
indicating a “gloom & doom” situation in the months ahead.
On Friday weekend, USD was down on US
political jitters (Muller’s Russian investigation regarding Trump), tax reform
suspense, fresh NK tensions and hurricane distorted housing data. Market may be
concerned over ultimate fate of US tax reform and more importantly the corp tax
cut issues, which is primarily responsible for the monster stock market rally
after Trumpism.
Also, Muller’s subpoena for documents over Trump’s alleged
Russian links during the US election campaign is being seen as a serious
potential blow for Trump & Co. Looking ahead, market may also focus on FOMC
minutes for Nov meet on 22nd Nov to have a glimpse about US
policymaker’s stance on inflation. Although market is now almost certain about
the Dec’17 rate hike, the same is not true for the 2018 dot-plots of Fed.
On Friday weekend, US
stock market closed in red and
clocked 2nd weekly loss, a relatively rare event nowadays on mixed
US earnings in Q3 and US tax reform squabbling. Although, Q3 US earnings are
mostly above street estimates (+8.2% EPS growth) they are largely down from Q2
and any delay in implementation of corp tax cut from 2018 to 2019 may also
cause some downgrade of earnings in 2018 as market have already priced in such
tax cut from Jan’2017 itself on perception of retroactive treatment.
DJ-30 fell by almost 0.43%, S&P-500 lost almost 0.26%, while
NQ-100 edged down by around 0.15%; Tesla (+0.8%) helped the market to some
extent after electric big rig (semiautomatic Trucks) & a new version of its
Roadster was unveiled. Fox (21st Century) soared by over 6% on
M&A buzz from Comcast (-2.6%) and Verizon (+1.5%).
Hibbett Sports jumped by almost 15% on upbeat Q3 earnings &
guidance; similarly Foot Locker surged by almost 28% after reporting less than
expected Q3 loss.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2570, down by almost 0.25% on
muted Asian cues, ahead of EU market opening, which is also set to trade lower
on German political tensions despite EUR dropped today. Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain above 2565-2555 zone;
otherwise expect more correction towards 2540 area in the coming days.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10300, almost unchanged and
consolidating after Moody’s “historical upgrade” after 13 long years; market
may be in dilemma over Govt’s commitments of fiscal spending vs fiscal discipline.
India is set to close the FY-18 at 3.2% fiscal deficit of GDP
from actual 3.5% clocked in FY-17. Govt is supposed to clear this dilemma in
Dec, when it officially reviews the FRBM path and any deviation required
thereof to support growth (as GDP plummeted).
Market will also focus on RBI for any rate cuts or dovish hold
on 6th Dec after Moody’s upgrade; but RBI may like to be in neutral
mode considering global QT push and RBI may also like to hear from the other
two global rating agencies (S&P and Fitch) before any move. S&P and
Fitch may review the Indian rating only after Govt budget presentation and the
actual fiscal deficit figure. Market may be also confused about some contradictory
stance in Moody’s India rating reports for Nov’16 & Nov’17.
As par some reports, Govt may further cut GST on electronic
goods (consumer durables) like AC, Washing machine, refrigerator, dish-washer
etc from 28% to 18-12% to aid consumption and help Indian house hold budgets.
But such GST cuts at this point of time may be also viewed as negative for the
fiscal discipline narrative coupled with political populism ahead of GJ
elections, which is going to be vital for the Indian market going ahead along
with surging oil.
Indian 10YGSEC bond yields fell today to almost 6.90% (-2.12%)
after RBI scrapped to sell bonds worth Rs.10 bln via OMO citing unusual market
conditions after Moody’s upgrade on Friday; USDINR-I is now almost flat around
65.13 (+0.03%) after a knee-jerk reaction to 64.73 on Friday after Moody’s “surprised”
upgrade; but it was recovered later and closed around 65.12, indicating that
the upgrade was not at all unexpected after India’s jump in ease of doing
business index coupled with Govt plan for PSBS recaps.
RBI pause on OMO bond sales may help to revive Indian bond
yields on less supply in the market and may also help yield hungry FPIS’ attraction
of higher Indian bond yields; a healthy bond market is a primary source of Govt’s
fiscal deficit financing.
SGX-NF
SPX-500
No comments:
Post a Comment