Market Mantra: 16/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10160 (-3)
For the Day: updated: 12:30
Key support for NF:
10120/10095-10060/9970
Key resistance for NF:
10200/10230-10260/10280
Key support for BNF:
25200/25150-24950
Key resistance for BNF:
25550-25750
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty
Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over 10230
area for further rally towards 10260/10280-10355 & 10410-10460 zone in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10200 area, NF may fall towards
10140/10120-10095/10060 & 9995/9970-9915 zone in the short term (under bear
case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25550 area for further rally towards
25650-25750 & 25825-25950 zone in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25500 area, BNF may fall towards 25300-25200/25150 &
24950-24750 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10160, almost flat on stable global/Asian
cues as USD edged up on hopes of a
credible US tax reform & Dec’17 rate hikes; Asia-Pacific market (HK/JP/AU)
was also stable on earnings optimism, higher USD and stable commodities after
huge liquidity injection by PBOC yesterday to cool down the growing concern
about China bond market.
But, concerns for US tax reform legislation and the ultimate
format may be also haunting the market; yesterday a senior RNC Senator
(Johnson) has opposed the current Senate tax package on the ground that it favors
US corporates rather than SMES/small business and thus he will not vote for it.
In the US Senate, Trump/RNC has only 2 votes advantage and with
Johnson out, Trump is left with only 1 extra vote to pass his legislation and
that will be too much risky as of now as no DNC will vote for the Tax plan.
Another point is that if US Senate will fail to present their
final tax plan by tomorrow (Friday), there may be high probability that US congress
will be not able to pass the same by Dec’17.
It now seems that the two different tax plans by US House/RNC
& Senate Fin comm will be reconciled into the final version and US
Senate/Congress will pass it before it reached Trump’s desk for his signature.
Thus the whole process may be still looking complex and also uncertain,
considering Trump’s political immaturity and ongoing US political drama and
market may not like such uncertainty for long.
Overall US economic data was mixed yesterday (core CPI/real wage
growth/NY Fed Mfg Index) and USD dropped after the data, but it recovered in
the late NY session on tax reform & Dec’17 rate hike optimism. As of now
Dec’17 rate hike is almost certain irrespective of any US economic data
provided there will be no terrible geo-political events in the meantime.
But, if US corp tax cut will not be implemented in 2018 and
deferred by another year to 2019, it will be a huge “risk-off” event for the US
as well as global markets as perception of “Trumponomics” will get a jolt and
we may see more flattening of US bond yield curve on concern for a slowing
economy or even a recession in future.
Meanwhile, market may also focus on any fresh NK missile game
after Trump returns to US from his marathon 12 days Asia tour; yesterday NK “sentenced
Trump to death for insulting Kim and malignantly hurt the dignity of the
supreme leadership” and called Trump a “coward” for cancelling the visit to the
NK-SK border (DMZ). China has sent a special envoy to NK to kick start any
peace negotiation after Trump’s request.
USD got some boost in the early Asian session today after Fed’s
Rosengren hawkish scrips advocating for a Dec rate hike on solid US job market
despite low inflation, which may be due to various transitory factors.
Overnight US market closed in negative on drops in commodities (oil/metals) and corp
tax cut uncertainty; US bond yields also edged down. DJ-30 dragged by 0.59%;
S&P-500 lost 0.55% and closed at 2565, while NQ-100 slumped by almost
0.47%; it was also a milestone single day drop for the US stocks by over 0.5%!!
Market may be now highly skeptical about US corp tax cut and its
ultimate effect on the earnings, which is so far termed as mixed yet stable in
Q3. Retailer Target yesterday plunged by almost 10% on disappointing Q3
earnings; Wall Mart is scheduled to report today. Boeing rose 0.4% on
deleveraging push; GE rebounds by almost 2% after tumbling 10% this week and
40% YTD!!
Overall US market was yesterday dragged by energies (lower oil after surprised crude &
gasoline inventory buildup, muted demand forecast by EIA FOR 2017-18, Russian leniency
about extension of production cut), metals/miners (China slowdown concern), while
helped by industrials, utilities (defensive high dividend paying-bond proxies),
banks & financials (on hopes of Dec rate hike and higher US bond yields,
favourable for their business models).
But, market may be also confused about Fed’s dot-plots for 2018,
projecting 3 rate hikes amid current nature of subdued US inflation, muted real
wage growth & tepid consumer spending and an eventual central bank QT.
EU stocks also nosedived yesterday; Stoxx-600 tumbled by 0.50% at fresh two months
low on higher EUR & some muted earnings. Overall, EU market may be also
concerned about trajectory of EU earnings in Q3 amid higher EUR; YTD EURUSD is
up by almost 15%.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2571, up by almost 0.23% on
positive Asian cues amid higher USD & a lower EUR, positive for both export
heavy Asian & EU market; European market is also expected to open in positive
tone today. Looking ahead, SPX-500 now need to stay above 2580 for any further
bounce back.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10215, rebounds by almost
0.60% so far on stable/positive global cues after seven consecutive days of
fall.
Apart from macros & earnings, market may also focus on
further development of India’s first high profile dollar bond default by RCOM
(ADAG group) and the ultimate fate of its huge debt to various Indian Banks like
SBI, PNB, BOB, IDBI bank etc. The RCOM debt may be now unsustainable at company
level and thus may be soon announced as NPA “officially” and may be referred to
NCLT also.
As ADAG group may be also looked as “too big to fall”, Govt may
also come out with a “bail out” formula for the group.
As par latest report, GST revenue shortfall for various states
has come down to 17% from 27% earlier and Govt is expecting a revenue surplus
by March’18.
Govt has also floated a
trial balloon for PSBS recap mechanism: Govt
considering two options for structure of bank recap bonds: Option 1- Individual
banks to issue recap bonds, may have 'hold-to-maturity' status with an option
to be tradable later; Option 2- Govt may form holding company that will issue
recap bonds.
Bank recap bonds could be of long term tenures extending up to
20-25 yrs; Govt has informally consulted global ratings agencies for their
accounting; Govt may advance planned cap infusion of Rs 10,000 cr from FY19 to
FY18; first tranche of PSU recap bonds maybe in the range of Rs 70,000 cr; All
PSU banks to be covered under recap bonds.
PSBS recap to cover provisioning as well as growth factor; Capital
infusion to be based on 3-year CAGR, growth projections; PSU banks may start
tapping markets from Dec onwards; Govt approval in place. PSU banks (PSBS) may do QIPs, FPOs of up to Rs 2,000 cr each.
This PSBS recaps optimism may be the primary reason behind
yesterday’s closing session short covering & today’s rally apart from
positive global cues and some fall in oil and stable USD.
SGX-NF
SPX-500
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