Market Mantra: 22/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10380 (+28)
For the Day: updated: 13:00
Key support for NF: 10335/10315-10290/10270
Key resistance for NF:
10395/10415-10460
Key support for BNF:
25700-25500
Key resistance for BNF:
26000-26100
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty
Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over
10415 area for further rally towards 10460- 10500/10535 & 10575-10675 zone
in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10395 area, NF may fall towards 10335-10290/10270
& 10190-10150 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further rally towards
26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25950 area, BNF may fall towards 25700-25500 & 25350-25150
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10380, gap-up by almost 28 points tracking
upbeat global/Asian cues &
Thanksgiving rally in a pre-holiday thinned market despite German & US
political jitters.
Asian market (HK) soared on tech optimism and being driven by huge inflows
from China mainland investors; overall Asian mood is also upbeat despite a lower USD today after Yellen sounds more like a dove and some
NK soldiers breached the LOC/MDL with SK for few minutes to recapture a
soldier.
USD was also under pressure on a report that BOJ may be in early
stages to reduce its QQE or hike its YCC bond yield target apart from US bond
yield curve carnage, pointing towards some pessimism over US growth trajectory
in the coming months and apprehensions about ultimate shape & benefit of US
tax reform/corp tax cut.
In her speech and Q&A, Yellen said that US inflation is
below target while unemployment is or at below goal and thus it’s appropriate
to hike gradually as Fed can’t allow inflation to drift down too much or risks allowing
economy run too hot; raising rates key to dealing with potential future
negative shock; raising rates too slowly risks tightening labour market too
much. Thus Fed wants to avoid “boom and bust” for US economy.
Yellen is also quite confused about US inflation mystery as she
noted that “Fed is not certain low inflation is transitory; US inflation is
surprisingly low likely due to temporary factors this year; Fed is keeping an
open mind that it may be more long lasting.
Thus, although Dec’17 rate hike is almost certain now, Yellen
has clearly indicated that in 2018, Fed will be data dependent and more focused
on tepid nature of inflation and US employment (wage growth). Market may be
assuming that nest Fed Chair Powell will also follow this Yellen (Fed) line of
gradual rate hikes and thus 2018 dot-plots of 3 hikes may be also in doubt;
despite upbeat US economic data (Fed national activity index & existing
home sales), USD drifted lower.
Overnight US market soared to another milestone (life time) high on intense year
end short covering after 2 weeks of decline and optimism about US earnings
growth & analysts’ market upgrade and further helped by techs &
healthcare optimism; DJ-30 jumped 0.69%; S&P-500 gained by 0.65% and closed
around 2599 after briefly breaching the 2600 milestone mark and NQ-100 soared
by almost 1.06% in a low volume pre-holiday thinned market; Apple leads NQ by
surging 1.90%.
Investors may be giving thanks to the incredible goldilocks
US/global market rally on “solid” corporate earnings & expanding economic
growth and hopes of Trumponomics (US corp tax rate cut, incremental fiscal, infra
spending, deregulation) despite significant geo-political risks.
Overall US earnings report card were mixed yesterday; Specialty
retailer Signet Jewelers tumbled more than 30% on below expected result; Home
improvement chain Lowe’s fall more than 1% on subdued earnings; Packaged-foods
heavyweights Hormel Foods and Campbell Soup also released results; Campbell
shed more than 8% , while Hormel jumped 3.4%.
Similarly medical device maker Medtronic rallied by around 5% on
better than expected result, while Intuit shed almost 4% on muted guidance despite
upbeat earnings.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2598, edged up
(+0.07%) on positive Asian cues ahead of EU market opening. Technically, SPX-500 now needs to
sustain above 2610-2620 area for next leg of rally to around 2650 area;
otherwise expect some correction after the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
EU market is also expected to open edged up on robust German
political system, in which a minority care taker Govt (Merkel) is allowed to
function “as usual” without any apparent time pressure. As par latest report,
Merkel is expected to consult with different political parties in a last ditch
effort to form either a “Jamaican” or “Grand” coalition Govt or call for a
fresh election, which may happen not before March’18.
Thus, there is no immediate political dooms day for Germany
& EU and thus EUR may also get a
lift; EUR was also boosted by some report that going forward, ECB officials may
change their forward guidance (jawboning) and talk for more measured way to
close the QE by Dec’18; most probably ECB will announce a short taper after Sep’18
to close the remaining 30 bln EUR/pm QE by Dec’18. A higher EUR may be not good
for the EU market in the coming days.
EU market yesterday recovered from early weakness on overall political immunity
of German economy and confidence that a fresh election may be good for Merkel
as public will vote for political & economical stability rather than
anarchy.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 12360, edged up by almost
0.10% following positive global/Asian cues; but soon after making an upbeat
opening high of 10388, it fell to the session low of 10321 so far. Although
there is no specific headlines for such sudden selling spree, market may be
worried about GS observation regarding trajectory of Indian economy in 2018.
Although, GS is quite optimistic about Indian GDP growth in
2018, it has projected 0.75% rate hike by RBI in 2018-19 on probable surge in
CPI (5.3% by FY-19).
As par GS: “real GDP growth to accelerate to 8% in the next
financial year from a projected 6.4 percent in the current fiscal; Expect the
negative impact from GST to gradually fade over the coming year; Move to reduce
tax rates for nearly 200 products could boost activity in the next 3-6 months; GDP
rise as the negative impact from shocks this year fade; Bank recap program
unlocks credit and private investment growth”.
GS: “Tailwinds from the civil service wage hikes to aid
consumption demand; Government’s ongoing push on infrastructure will support
investment growth; Government’s focus on affordable housing bodes well for
investment outlook”.
GS: “Delays in GST-related effects and bank recap can pose
downside risks; Forecast headline CPI to accelerate to 5.3% in the next financial
year; Expect the RBI to hike policy rates by 75 basis points by mid-2019; Believe
the RBI will be reluctant to cut policy rates further to support the economy;
Current account deficit to remain manageable, Indian rupee to appreciate
against the dollar; Forecast the current account deficit to widen to 2.1
percent of GDP in the next financial year”.
Market may be also concerned about IBC/NCLT mechanism as IBA has
written a letter to the Govt seeking certain changes in the law to prohibit
backdoor entry of the errant promoters (willful defaulters) and removal of MAT
applicability for the bidders/new investors of the stressed assets. Govt may
soon amend the IBC act by an ordinance and go for Parliament nods in six
months. But overall slow resolution process even under IBC/NCLT with various
loopholes and judicial delays may also hamper the market sentiment.
By IBC process, Govt may want the overall corporate NPA
resolution mechanism with hefty haircuts with NCLT stamp, so that in future no
controversy arises either with the Govt or the banks; but need of the hour now
is speedy recaps of the banks/PSBS and finding eligible & quality corporate/MSME
borrowers with viable project, willing to borrow from Indian banks at hefty
rates and face possible IBC process in the future.
SGX-NF
SPX-500
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