Wednesday, 29 November 2017

Nifty Sinks In Late Hours Despite Stable Global Cues On Concern Of IBC/NPA Resolution, Muted Macro Data, Stretched Valuations & A Hawkish Hold By RBI



Market Wrap: 28/11/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Nov):10374 (-45; -0.43%) 

(TTM PE: 26.45; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 392; NS: 10370; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Nov):25857 (-81; -0.31%) 

(TTM PE: 29.44; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 878; BNS: 25846; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 29/11/2017: 

Key support for NF: 10380/10325-10280/10255

Key resistance for NF: 10425-10475/10510

Key support for BNF: 25700-25400

Key resistance for BNF: 26000-26100

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over 10475 area for further rally towards 10510/10540-10585 & 10635-10695 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10455-10425 area, NF may fall towards 10380-10325 & 10280/10255-  10190 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further rally towards 26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25950-25875 area, BNF may fall towards 25700-25400 & 25200-24950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) today (28th Nov) closed around 10374, sinks by almost 45 points (-0.43%) after making a mid-session session high of 10428 and late hours low of 10361; market today opened around 10397, down by almost 26 points tracking subdued global/Asian cues and made the day high on hopes of an upbeat GDP and some expectations of RBI rate cut on 6th Dec after Moody’s “historic” rating upgrade and hopes for a clean sweep by NAMO/BJP in the GJ election.

Market Sinks In Late Hours Despite Stable GlobalCues:

But Indian market went into sharp sell-off after reports indicate that Govt is not expecting any rate cut by RBI in Dec, but “trying to convince” RBI/MPC for a Feb’17 rate cut citing headline CPI, which is expected to stay below 4%. 

Market may be also concerned about stretched valuations, now Nifty TTM PE around 26.45 with muted earnings growth/recovery against TTM PE of around 15 for Japan/China/HK or around 20 for US/EU market and thus seeing profit booking/long unwinding/fresh selling at every high ahead of key macro data (GDP/PMI/auto sales).
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Market may be also concerned about several amendments to the controversial IBC act & its ultimate benefit for a quick NPA resolution; Govt may be also worried about finding suitable & eligible buyers for these huge stressed assets even with high hair-cuts by the banks.

Apart from this, high probabilities of huge NPA write-off through IBC/NCLT mechanism is now turning into a major political/public issue before GJ election, considering media’s 24/7 coverage on it; today FM assured that there will be no “big write-offs for the capitalists” and refutes criticism that Govt has waived off big NPAs; instead Govt has taken various steps to crack down on corporate defaulters.

As par FM, Banks have to carry out several reforms for receiving capitals and Govt’s various steps taken over last 3 years have addressed “legacy issues” faced by Banks.

Market may be also concerned about muted GST collections in Oct’17, despite being a festival month; but Govt sees it as transitory and also assumed that any such revenue shortfall will be adjusted by incrementally higher corp tax collection.

Today Nifty was supported by HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, ZEEL, Indusind Bank, IBULLS HSG, Asian Paints, HUL, Axis Bank & UPL by around 21 points altogether.

Nifty was dragged by RIL, Infy, ICICI Bank, ITC, Tata Motors, L&T, Bharti Infratel, SBI, IOC & HPCL by around 38 points cumulatively.

Overall, Indian market today was helped by automakers, mixed FMCG, media, consumption & MNC, while dragged by PSBS, mixed private Banks, techs, healthcare/pharma, metals, property developers/reality, energies, infra & PSU firms.

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