Saturday, 4 November 2017

Nifty Edged Up By 0.33% In Late Day Trade Boosted By Positive EU Cues And PSBS Earnings Optimism & Improved Service PMI



Market Wrap: 03/11/2017 (17:00)


NSE-NF (Nov):10489 (+34; +0.33%) 


(TTM PE: 26.53; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 394; NS: 10452; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)


NSE-BNF (Nov):25677 (+208; +0.82%) 


(TTM PE: 28.44; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 902; BNS: 25651; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)


For 06/11/2017: 


Key support for NF: 10415-10345



Key resistance for NF: 10505-10575



Key support for BNF: 25300/25200-25050



Key resistance for BNF: 25800-25950



Trading Idea (Positional):



Technically, NF has to sustain over 10525 area for further rally towards 10575-10625 & 10675-10835 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 



On the flip side, sustaining below 10505 area, NF may fall towards 10415-10345 & 10290-10195 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).



Technically, BNF has to sustain over 25800 area for further rally towards 25950-26100 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).



On the flip side, sustaining below 25750 area, BNF may fall towards 25400-25300/25200 & 25050-24850 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) today closed around 10489, edged up by almost 34 points (+0.33%) after making a pre-EU session low of 10425 and late day high of 10493.

Market today opened around 10470, up by almost 18 points and soon after that it came into some selling spree tracking mixed Global/Asian cues amid new Fed chair as expected, a confusing US tax proposal coupled with some China concern and rally in basic materials (iron ore) in Australia (sudden surge in physical demand).


Apart from mixed global cues, concern of muted earnings, subdued Mfg PMI and Oct auto sales numbers may be also affecting the overall Indian market sentiment. But it recovered from day low soon after improved Service PMI at 51.8 vs est 50.8; prior: 50.6 coupled with positive opening of EU market on lower EUR & some earnings boost. 

Eventually Indian market made a small late day rally on improved/better than expected report card & some improvement in fresh stressed assets formation trend  from PNB, one of the PSBS major and also joined by similar rally in SBI on earnings optimism ahead of its result next week.


Market sentiment may have also boosted today by FM’s stimulus talks that Govt may build 35-40 airports across the country to boost up the economy after recent plunge as a result of structural reform (DeMo/GST).


Tracking the usual current trend of global goldilocks rally, Indian market also closed at new milestone high and for the week, Nifty gained by around 1.25%, also boosted by improvement in “ease of doing business” index of WB.


Nifty was today supported by Tata Motors (benefit? of cross currency hedge/equation from fall in GBP after dovish hike by BOE yesterday), SBI, L&T, Indusind Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Fin, Axis Bank, Yes Bank & ONGC (higher WTI) by around 51 points cumulatively.


Nifty was dragged by Power Grid, Sun Pharma, VEDL (muted report card), Bharti Infratel, BPCL, IOC (higher crude may affect margin of OMC), Hero Motors (muted Oct sales fig), HCL Tech, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank by around 18 points altogether.


Overall, Indian market was today helped by banks & financials, automobiles, media, property developers/reality, while dragged by FMCG, techs/IT, and healthcare/pharma.


Crude Oil May Be A Big Headwind For The Indian Economy, If It Stays Over 55.75:


Meanwhile, Crude Oil (WTI) closed around 55.70, up by almost 2.13% on dual jawboning (Russia & Saudi) about extension of production cut for another year after March’18.; all eyes may be now on Nov end meet of OPEC-NOPEC. 

As par some reports, contribution of Saudi jawboning is significant behind today’s Brent price of around $61 and Saudis may be aiming for a price of $70 to make its mega IPO (Armco) successful and that price may be also helpful for their budget (fiscal discipline).


A higher oil price may be beneficial for all oil producers including US, Russia and Canada and even EU (for imported inflation equation) and may be also good for overall financial market/SWF; but it may not be good for Indian economy at all!!

Apart from ongoing OPEC-NOPEC jawboning, increasing demands from China is also helping oil sentiment amid prospect of tighter supplies; China is now world’s top crude importer at 9 mpbd, surpassing even US. 


But, with increasing crude price, more US shale oil supplies are coming online with significant hedges for 2018; this may be also a major headwind for oil apart from the fact that a high probable production cut extension for another year beyond March’18 may be already discounted to a great extent.


Technically, next hurdle for WTI is around 55.75 zone and only sustaining above that, 57.70-59.05 area may be easily visible; otherwise it will come down; near term support is now around 55.20 & 53.70-52.70 zone.

Europe Set To Trade In Positive Amid Mixed Global Cues After US Tax Plan & New Fed Chair And Overnight Plunge In GBP On "Dovish Hike" By BOE


By Asis Ghosh | 03/11/2017 - 09:04

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By Asis Ghosh| 03/11/2017 - 14:16 

USD Made An Weekly Top On Upbeat ISM Data After Hurricane Distorted Terrible NFP Report

By Asis Ghosh | 03/11/2017 - 17:34




SGX-NF


 WTI

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