Market Mantra: 28/11/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10395 (-28)
For the Day: updated: 12:30
Key support for NF: 10380/10340-10290
Key resistance for NF:
10425-10475/10510
Key support for BNF:
25700-25500
Key resistance for BNF:
26000-26100
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Nov (NF) has to sustain over 10475 area for further
rally towards 10510/10540-10585 & 10635-10695 zone in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10455-10425 area, NF may fall towards 10380/10340-10290
& 10190-10150 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further
rally towards 26100-26325 & 26400-26675 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25950-25875 area, BNF may fall towards
25700/25600-25450 & 25200-24950 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 10395, down by almost 28 points on
subdued global/Asian cues and hopes for an upbeat GDP; China today again
stumbled on net zero liquidity injection by PBOC; bond yield is still hovering
around 4% amid regulatory & liquidity tightening.
Today there were some reports that Chinese publicly offered
funds were told by the Govt not to sell shares in large scale and they were
banned from selling more shares than they bought for the day. This has caused
some relief rally at the opening, but soon after that it fizzles out as it may
be an indication of panic.
USD edged up from yesterday’s NK missile signal panic low of 110.87 after
Trump tweeted that “negotiations on the tax bill are coming along very well and
the same likely to have bipartisan support”. As Trump has only 2 votes majority
in the senate and almost his 6 own RNC GOP may vote against the bill on various
reasons of tax deficit funding to overall structure of the bill, Trump now
badly needs some DNC support to pass the tax bill, which is poised for Senate
vote day after tomorrow.
USD also got some boost in the Asian session today after some
dovish BOJ talks; Kuroda also sounds quite dovish today by commenting that QQE
is not hurting JP’s financial systems (Banks/NRIP) contrary to his earlier
comments some days ago.
USD bulls also get some support from overall hawkish Fed talks
today, especially from Dudley, who said that “Fed thinks US economy is pretty
much at full employment” & he is no concerned that inflation is little
below target. Also prepared statement from Powell was on the hawkish side as he
expects US interest rate to rise “somewhat further”. As USD inched up today, it’s
helping export savvy Asia as well as EU market to some extent, although overall
Asian market is still edged down on lower energies (oil).
But Kaplan has warned about the US stock market risk, which was
not corrected by even 3% in the last 12 months & potential financial
imbalances thereof. Oil slumped yesterday on doubt about OPEC-NOPEC production
cut extension (Russian uncertainty). EUR is also under pressure on German
political squabbling despite upbeat economic data.
Overnight, US market closed mixed, but was under stress on lower
oil (energies) & chipmakers (pessimistic Q4 outlook), but helped by
retailers (consumer discretionary) on blockbuster Black Friday & Cyber
Monday sales; market is expecting a record High Holiday shopping season sales
this time; DJ-30 edged up by almost 0.10%, while S&P-500 was almost unchanged,
but NQ-100 lost around 0.10%.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2599, edged down by almost
0.11% on muted Asian cues before EU market opens, which is also poised to trade
in positive tone as EUR is under stress & China also recovers to green
(+0.10% from -0.50% earlier).
Overnight EU market closed in red (Stoxx-600: -0.5%) on China worries (metals &
miners), energies (lower oil), exporters (higher EUR initially), techs/chip
makers and financials led by Julius Baer, which tumbled after sudden resignation
by its CEO to join a rival co; but utilities & properly developers helped
to some extent. Insurers were also mixed over an Allianz M&A deal
structure. DAX-30 fell by 0.50% on
additional tensions from German politics.
FTSE-100 slumped by 0.4% on China jitters (mining shares) coupled with
exporters (higher GBP from last week) & energies, but helped by healthcare
to some extent.
Back to home, Indian
market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10395, edged down by almost
0.22% on muted Asian cues; but market is trying to get some traction on lower
oil (OPEC deal uncertainty), hopes for an upbeat Q2 GDP & a thumping win
for NAMO in the GJ election.
Market may be also concerned about several amendments to the
controversial IBC act & its ultimate benefit for a quick NPA resolution;
Govt may be also worried about finding suitable & eligible buyers for these
huge stressed assets even with a high hair-cuts.
Indian bond yields continue to hover around 7% after divergent
rating action between S&P and Moody’s; a higher bond yields may not be good
for Indian corporates, who rely on domestic market for their financing needs
just like China, where 4% bond yield is creating havoc.
SGX-NF
CHINA-A-50
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