Market Wrap: 07/11/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Nov):10410 (-79; -0.76%)
(TTM PE: 26.27; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 394;
NS: 10350; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25388 (-230; -0.90%)
(TTM PE: 28.05; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
902; BNS: 25301; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 08/11/2017:
Key support for NF: 10360-10290
Key resistance for NF: 10410-10450
Key support for BNF:
25200-24950
Key resistance for BNF: 25450-25700
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, NF has to sustain over 10450 area for further rally towards 10525-10575
& 10625-10675 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10430 area, NF may fall towards 10360-10290
& 10240-10190 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, BNF has to
sustain over 25450 area for further rally towards 25600-25800 & 25950-26100
zone in the near term (under bullish
case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25400 area, BNF may fall towards 25200-24950 & 24800-24550
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50)
today closed around 10410, slumped by almost 79 points (-0.76%) after making an
opening minutes’ high of 10515 and late day low of 10381.
Indian market today
opened in positive around 10505, gap up by almost 26 points on positive global/Asian
cues amid higher USD and surges in oil on Saudi purges; energy shares were
upbeat along with miners/metals/basic resources (higher iron ore prices on
renewed China optimism & higher steel prices).
But Indian market soon came under selling spree and succumbed on
worries of higher oil & high profile corruptions amid Paradise papers
(investigation) fiasco. Higher oil above $65 (Brent) may seriously affect
India’s macro economic situation as the country imports almost 80% of its oil
requirement and higher oil import bill & deteriorating macros can also
cause spikes in USD (weak INR).
A dual combination of higher oil & higher USD may be a
serious headwind for the Indian economy as the country is always at the wrong
end of inflation curve; when various DMs are trying very hard for the 2%
sustainable core inflation, which is so far elusive, India is fighting to keep
its core inflation under 4%; WTI may stay above $55 until Saudi launches its
mega IPO Aramco.
Apart from Oil & Paradise money laundering fiasco, today
market was also dragged by Pharma cos (healthcare) on renewed concern about US
FDA ghost after it served Lupin an warning letter (WL) for its plants in Goa
& Indore. US FDA may be a legacy issue but still now, Indian pharma cos are
easy victim of the same, which is very much disappointing. Today Lupin plunged by around 17% and
contributed almost 9 points in the epic fall of Nifty.
Today Nifty was supported by Infy, TCS, HCL Tech, HPCL, ZEEL,
TECHM, Bharti Infratel, Wipro, ITC & Kotak Bank by around 30 points
altogether.
Nifty was dragged by RIL, IOC, SBI, Lupin, HDFC, Tata Motors,
Cipla, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Yes Bank & ONGC by around 75 points
cumulatively.
Overall, Indian market was today helped by only techs/IT (higher
USD), while it was dragged by healthcare/Pharma (US FDA woes), Banks &
Financials, PSBS, selected Pvt Banks, Automakers, mixed FMCG & media,
metals, property developers (reality), energies (higher oil above 60 may not be
good for GRM equation of RIL/ONGC ?)
Meanwhile, Crude Oil
(WTI) is now trading around 57.00, down by almost 0.55% as geo-political
tensions in Saudi is easing gradually, with no fresh eye catching headlines
today. Moreover, Trump has also accepted & supported the “games of Saudi
thrones” and the high expected extension of OPEC-NOPEC cut may be also already
discounted.
OPEC Sec today said that there is no consensus on output cut
extension so far and talks are ongoing on overall modalities of any extension
deal.
OPEC also sees subdued demand (less than previously estimated)
for oil in next two years and higher supplies from US shale suppliers; i.e.
it’s expecting further delay in rebalancing, which is bearish for oil.
Technically, WTI now has to sustain over 57.85 area for 58.85-60.25; otherwise
it will come down; immediate support is now around 55.60-55.00 zone.
Europe Set To Trade In Green On Positive Global Cues Energized By Oil & Lower EUR
Asia Extends Goldilocks Rally (Barring India) On Positive Global Cues Led By Commodities & Higher USD On Hopes Of NK Truce
USD Is Hovering Around 114 On US Tax Squabbling & Hopes Of NK Peace
SGX-NF
BNF
WTI
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