Wednesday, 8 November 2017

Nifty Slumped By 0.76% & Bucked The Trend Of Global Goldilocks Rally On Surge In Oil & Paradise PMLA Worries



Market Wrap: 07/11/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Nov):10410 (-79; -0.76%) 

(TTM PE: 26.27; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 394; NS: 10350; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Nov):25388 (-230; -0.90%) 

(TTM PE: 28.05; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 902; BNS: 25301; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 08/11/2017: 

Key support for NF: 10360-10290

Key resistance for NF: 10410-10450

Key support for BNF: 25200-24950

Key resistance for BNF: 25450-25700

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, NF has to sustain over 10450 area for further rally towards 10525-10575 & 10625-10675 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10430 area, NF may fall towards 10360-10290 & 10240-10190 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, BNF has to sustain over 25450 area for further rally towards 25600-25800 & 25950-26100  zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25400 area, BNF may fall towards 25200-24950 & 24800-24550 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) today closed around 10410, slumped by almost 79 points (-0.76%) after making an opening minutes’ high of 10515 and late day low of 10381. 

Indian market today opened in positive around 10505, gap up by almost 26 points on positive global/Asian cues amid higher USD and surges in oil on Saudi purges; energy shares were upbeat along with miners/metals/basic resources (higher iron ore prices on renewed China optimism & higher steel prices).

But Indian market soon came under selling spree and succumbed on worries of higher oil & high profile corruptions amid Paradise papers (investigation) fiasco. Higher oil above $65 (Brent) may seriously affect India’s macro economic situation as the country imports almost 80% of its oil requirement and higher oil import bill & deteriorating macros can also cause spikes in USD (weak INR). 

A dual combination of higher oil & higher USD may be a serious headwind for the Indian economy as the country is always at the wrong end of inflation curve; when various DMs are trying very hard for the 2% sustainable core inflation, which is so far elusive, India is fighting to keep its core inflation under 4%; WTI may stay above $55 until Saudi launches its mega IPO Aramco.

Apart from Oil & Paradise money laundering fiasco, today market was also dragged by Pharma cos (healthcare) on renewed concern about US FDA ghost after it served Lupin an warning letter (WL) for its plants in Goa & Indore. US FDA may be a legacy issue but still now, Indian pharma cos are easy victim of the same, which is very much disappointing. Today Lupin plunged by around 17% and contributed almost 9 points in the epic fall of Nifty.

Today Nifty was supported by Infy, TCS, HCL Tech, HPCL, ZEEL, TECHM, Bharti Infratel, Wipro, ITC & Kotak Bank by around 30 points altogether.

Nifty was dragged by RIL, IOC, SBI, Lupin, HDFC, Tata Motors, Cipla, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Yes Bank & ONGC by around 75 points cumulatively.

Overall, Indian market was today helped by only techs/IT (higher USD), while it was dragged by healthcare/Pharma (US FDA woes), Banks & Financials, PSBS, selected Pvt Banks, Automakers, mixed FMCG & media, metals, property developers (reality), energies (higher oil above 60 may not be good for GRM equation of RIL/ONGC ?)

Meanwhile, Crude Oil (WTI) is now trading around 57.00, down by almost 0.55% as geo-political tensions in Saudi is easing gradually, with no fresh eye catching headlines today. Moreover, Trump has also accepted & supported the “games of Saudi thrones” and the high expected extension of OPEC-NOPEC cut may be also already discounted. 

OPEC Sec today said that there is no consensus on output cut extension so far and talks are ongoing on overall modalities of any extension deal.

OPEC also sees subdued demand (less than previously estimated) for oil in next two years and higher supplies from US shale suppliers; i.e. it’s expecting further delay in rebalancing, which is bearish for oil.

Technically, WTI now has to sustain over 57.85 area for 58.85-60.25; otherwise it will come down; immediate support is now around 55.60-55.00 zone.


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By Asis Ghosh| 07/11/2017 - 15:49

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By Asis Ghosh | 07/11/2017 - 17:06




SGX-NF


BNF


WTI

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